Republic of Tajikistan and the IMF
Free Email Notification
The 1998 Program
Under the current program, real GDP growth is expected to reach 4-5 percent in 1998, compared with preliminary rates of about 2 percent in 1997, and about -4 percent in 1996; inflation is targeted to fall to about 18 percent during 1998, from about 164 percent during 1997; and gross international reserves are programmed to rise to 1.4 months of imports at end-1998, from 0.7 months of imports at end-1997, and 0.3 months of imports at end-1996.
To achieve these objectives, fiscal policy is designed to further reduce the government deficit to below 3 percent of GDP in 1998, from 3.4 percent of GDP in 1997, and 5.8 percent of GDP in 1996. On the revenue side, strong collections are expected to enable the government to eliminate budgetary wage and cash compensation arrears, while reducing central bank credit to the government. On the monetary side, the annual growth rate of broad money is projected to fall from around 120 percent in 1997 to just under 25 percent in 1998.
Tajikistan's economic program places great emphasis on completing the process of regularizing the country's relations with its external creditors, clearing the external debt service arrears, and avoiding new debt service arrears.
Privatization plans, while taking into account institutional constraints to rapid privatization, call for the sale of smaller enterprises, and the restructuring and sale of medium- and large-scale enterprises. Progress in institution building will be consolidated by continuing to strengthen tax administration, finalizing introduction of a treasury system, and beginning to conform fiscal accounts to international standards.
Addressing Social Needs
The Challenge Ahead
Tajikistan joined the IMF on April 27, 1993, and its quota2 is SDR 60 million (about US$80 million). Its outstanding use of IMF financing currently totals SDR 22.5 million (about US$30 million).
1The ESAF is a concessional IMF facility for assisting eligible members that are undertaking economic reform programs to strengthen their balance of payments and improve their growth prospects. ESAF loans carry an interest rate of 0.5 percent a year and are repayable over 10 years, with a 5 1/2-year grace period.
IMF EXTERNAL RELATIONS DEPARTMENT