Republic of Madagascar and the IMF
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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) today approved the second annual loan under the Enhanced Structural Adjustment Facility (ESAF)1 to support Madagascar's economic and financial program, and extended the commitment period of the three-year loan under ESAF until July 27, 2000. The three-year ESAF program was approved on November 27, 1996, in an original amount of SDR 81.36 million (about US$108.11 million), of which SDR 27.12 million has been disbursed. Today's decision provides Madagascar with SDR 27.12 million (US$36.04 million) during the second annual economic and financial program supported by the ESAF, with SDR 13.56 million available as of July 30.
In commenting on the Executive Board's discussion of the request by Madagascar, Shigemitsu Sugisaki, Deputy Managing Director of the IMF, made the following statement:
"Directors welcomed the government's recent efforts to strengthen the implementation of its reform strategy. Directors considered the program to be appropriately aimed at increasing growth and supporting an ambitious poverty reduction plan. They concurred that continued fiscal reform, a reduced role for government in the production of marketable goods and services, and a transparent regulatory framework were crucial to ensuring macroeconomic stability and creating an environment for much-needed foreign investment.
"Directors noted that reform of public finances was central to the success of the program. To this end, they welcomed the recent fiscal reforms, including increases in some taxes and the tightening of tax and customs administration, and encouraged the authorities to build on these efforts. The authorities' intention to shift the emphasis of public expenditure further towards key priorities in health and education, and to take steps to improve the efficiency of public spending was also supported. Fiscal consolidation had to be complemented by prudent monetary management and financial sector modernization as a way to attract private savings and investment, both domestic and foreign.
"Directors attached particular importance to advancing civil service reform. They stressed that a well educated, properly paid, and efficient public service would facilitate the timely implementation of the government's reform strategy. Directors also welcomed the authorities' commitment to reforms for strengthening the budgetary process through enhanced financialaccountability and transparency.
"Directors noted that the expeditious implementation of the privatization strategy--with attention to its social effects-and of the regulatory and legal reform agenda, together with stricter enforcement of rules, would help improve the climate for private sector activity and modernize the economy. They welcomed the recent privatization of two banks, and noted the importance of collecting on their nonperforming loans; privatization efforts in other areas, especially of the utilities, should also strengthen economic infrastructure. Pointing to the heavy debt burden faced by Madagascar, Directors supported the authorities' desire to secure early debt relief. To this end, Directors underscored the importance of establishing a strong policy track record, through full implementation of the envisaged macroeconomic and structural measures."
To achieve these objectives, the government's program emphasizes higher tax revenue, a more efficient delivery of public services, and the development of key economic sectors. Therefore, reform of the civil service and the regulatory framework as well as privatization are key instruments in the government's strategy. The government is committed to keeping the fiscal deficit at 4.9% of GDP in 1999 and at 3.2% of GDP in 2000, which implies a revenue effort of about 3 percentage points of GDP over the two-year period and strict expenditure control. To achieve the tax revenue target, 12.7 percent of GDP by 2000, the government has increased excise and petroleum taxes, has tightened tax and customs administration, and will continue to phase out tax exemptions. At the same time, the authorities expect to contain government spending (excluding reform-related outlays) in 1999-2000 at 18% of GDP, while increasing outlays in priority areas, such as health, education, and physical infrastructure. As part of the civil service reform, the government is preparing a performance-oriented remuneration strategy, it plans to put in place a new code of conduct and revised statutes for civil servants in 2000, and it is adapting its medium-term reform agenda in light of the envisaged decentralization of government services over the coming few years.
Monetary policy will remain geared toward achieving the program's inflation and balance of payments targets. In managing liquidity, the central bank will closely monitor the government's financing needs, and it will use its monetary instruments to support exchange market stability while limiting intervention in the foreign exchange market to smoothing wide fluctuations. Moregenerally, the government will encourage financial sector modernization as a means to fostering domestic savings and a more efficient allocation of financial resources.
As part of its strategy to eradicate poverty, which is estimated to afflict 70% of the population, the government intends to raise budget allocations for health care and education by 0.4 percentage points of GDP in 2000 from 3.4% of GDP in 1999. The increase in spending will finance improvements in the areas of disease prevention and immunization, and educational programs targeting the poor, like the school lunch and adult literacy programs.
Given Madagascar's low income level, its domestic savings capacity will remain constrained, implying that the achievement of the high investment strategy will hinge on concessional foreign aid and foreign direct investment. The country's debt-to-export ratios over the next years suggest that Madagascar may qualify for assistance under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative, assuming a decision point in 2001.
Madagascar joined the IMF on September 25, 1963, and its quota3 is SDR 122.20 million (about US$162.37 million). Its outstanding use of IMF financing currently totals SDR 36.09 million (about US$47.95 million).
||1999 2000 2001
|(Annual percentage change, unless otherwise indicated)|
|National accounts and prices|
| Real GDP at market
|Traditional consumer price index|
|End of period2||37.3||10.0||8.3||7.0||4.8||5.6||6.4||6.4||3.0||3.0|
| Overall consumer
|Money and credit|
|Net foreign assets4||10.4||11.6||20.6||11.9||18.6||2.0||-15.6||20.1||3.0||-0.5|
| Net domestic
| Of which:
|Broad money (M3)||16.2||7.9||18.1||12.0||19.8||11.4||8.4||8.8||10.0||9.5|
| Velocity of money
|External sector (in terms of SDRs)|
| Terms of trade
| Nominal effective
| Real effective
|(In percent of GDP)|
| Gross domestic
| Private sector
| Gross national
|Central government financial operations|
| Of which:
| Noninterest current
| Overall balance
| Overall balance
| Net balance of
| Total overall balance
|(In percent of GDP)|
|External current account|
| Excluding official
| Including official
|External capital account||-1.8||-0.8||1.0||3.5||3.2||0.0||0.2||3.6||1.7||1.9|
|External public debt (after
|External debt (before
|Public domestic debt11||11.0||...||10.0||9.1||8.8||9.6||11.9||9.2||8.7||7.6|
|(In percent of exports of goods and services)|
|Scheduled external debt
|Before debt relief||53.6||45.2||41.3||28.7||29.7||30.4||29.2||22.7||24.1||20.1|
|After debt relief||53.6||45.2||41.3||18.0||21.8||23.4||22.8||16.5||24.1||20.1|
|External public debt (after
|(In millions of SDRs, unless otherwise indicated)|
|Trade balance (f.o.b.)||-69.4||-82.1||-83.4||-94.4||-128.8||-95.3||-112.9||-118.2||-114.3||-120.7|
|Overall balance of
|Net official reserves||-3.9||...||88.7||118.8||128.2||121.9||51.6||151.1||168.0||168.9|
|Gross official reserves||73.7||121.7||167.6||211.9||207.8||204.8||120.9||225.0||251.6||251.2|
|In weeks of imports of goods and nonfactor services||5.4||9.3||12.3||14.9||14.0||13.6||7.8||13.6||14.5||13.4|
| Malagasy francs
| Malagasy francs
per French franc
|Nominal GDP at
| (in billions of
|Sources: Malagasy authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections.|
|1 EBS/97/159 (8/21/97).|
|2 Based on the traditional household consumption basket.|
|3 Based on the overall consumption pattern, 75 percent of which representing the traditional basket and 25 percent accounting for the modern consumption basket.|
|4 In percent of beginning-of-period stock of broad money.|
|5 The scenarios and estimate for 1998 and 1999 exclude the effect of asset restructuring at two state-owned banks. In 1999, the high rate of growth of credit to the economy reflects the financing of the purchase of shares in public enterprises by resident investors.|
|6 Based on 1993 trade weights.|
|7 Depreciation (-).|
|8 Including foreign loans on-lent to public enterprises.|
|9 Overall balance, excluding interest obligations.|
|10 Including the Fund.|
|11 Excluding domestic arrears.|
1The ESAF is a concessional IMF facility for assisting eligible members that are undertaking economic reform programs to strengthen their balance of payments and improve their growth prospects. ESAF loans carry an interest rate of 0.5% a year and are repayable over 10 years with a 5 ½-year grace period.
2Details of the program will be available on the IMF's website:
3A member's quota in the IMF determines, in particular, the amount of its subscription, its voting weight, its access to IMF financing, and its share in the allocation of SDRs.
IMF EXTERNAL RELATIONS DEPARTMENT