IMF Executive Board Concludes 2013 Article IV Consultation with Algeria

Press Release No. 14/28
January 28, 2014

On January 27, 2014, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation1 with Algeria without a meeting.2

Economic performance in 2013 has been satisfactory. Inflation, which reached 8.9 percent last year, has decelerated significantly in 2013 thanks to fiscal consolidation and prudent monetary policy. Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth is expected to slow to 2.7 percent in 2013 from 3.3 percent in 2012, reflecting a continued decline in hydrocarbon sector output and lower public spending, somewhat offset by the strong growth of private demand and investment by state-owned enterprises. However, Algeria’s external position, though still very strong, has started to weaken. The current account surplus is expected to narrow to 1.1 percent of GDP in 2013, as robust domestic hydrocarbon consumption, together with declining prices, weighs on hydrocarbon exports and import growth remains sizeable. Risks are tilted to the downside: Algeria is vulnerable to a prolonged decline in oil prices, a worsening of the global environment, further pressure on the hydrocarbon rent, and an intensification of regional tensions. Outward spillovers are likely to be limited. Algeria faces a number of challenges. Despite stabilization in 2013, new inflationary pressures may arise following the recent surge in credit and a new increase in public sector wages. Fiscal and external vulnerabilities to developments in the hydrocarbon sector are worsening, as the domestic consumption drag on export volumes is compounding the longstanding risk related to lower oil prices. In addition, notwithstanding the ongoing consolidation, fiscal policy is not on a sustainable path. It is de facto pro-cyclical, and the non-hydrocarbon primary deficit is well above its long-term sustainable level, implying negative net public savings in the long run. Finally, shortcomings in competitiveness and productivity are weighing on economic growth, which remains below its potential and below the level required to significantly reduce unemployment, especially for youth and women. Although stable, the financial sector is underdeveloped, constraining access to financing, in particular for small- and medium-sized enterprises.

Executive Board Assessment

In concluding the 2013 Article IV consultation with Algeria, Executive directors endorsed staff’s appraisal, as follows:

Algeria’s economic performance, marked notably by the decline in inflation, unemployment and inequality, has been good. However, strong credit growth and another public sector wage increase call for continued caution over price stability. In addition, the economy’s vulnerability to developments in the hydrocarbon sector worsened, as declining hydrocarbon production and surging domestic consumption are squeezing export volumes, compounding the longstanding risk of lower oil prices. Finally, unemployment remained high among youth and women. Against this background, the authorities are encouraged to take measures to consolidate macroeconomic and financial stability, ensure long-term fiscal sustainability, and promote strong private sector-led non-hydrocarbon growth and robust job creation.

The decline in inflation brought about by monetary tightening and fiscal consolidation is welcome. However, the recent surge in credit to the economy, together with the planned increase in current spending in 2014, could revive inflationary pressures, and the Banque d’Algérie should stand ready to increase liquidity absorption and raise interest rates if needed. Avoiding new increases in current spending, and financing the budget deficit by issuing debt rather than by drawings from the oil fund, would also help.

The fiscal consolidation initiated in 2013 should continue in order to ensure fiscal sustainability. This implies containing the wage bill; gradually phasing out subsidies while establishing a targeted cash-transfer system to protect the poor; stabilizing transfers to public entities in real terms; and reducing tax exemptions. To protect economic growth, it will be important to preserve capital spending and enhance its efficiency and effectiveness.

Algeria should adopt a full-fledged fiscal rule to better manage hydrocarbon revenue volatility and attain fiscal sustainability. A fiscal rule using a backward-looking average oil price and setting a limit on the structural primary balance consistent with long-run fiscal sustainability would improve the management of hydrocarbon revenue. Further, the oil fund could be transformed into a sovereign wealth fund, and annual ceilings on drawings established to preserve financial savings. To improve public financial management, the transparency of hydrocarbon revenue collection should be increased and an integrated financial management information system developed.

Preserving fiscal and external sustainability would call for increasing hydrocarbon production and extending the time horizon of reserves. It will be important to improve the business environment, attract Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in the hydrocarbon sector, and swiftly implement the national oil company’s investment plans. Phasing out implicit subsidies would help contain domestic energy consumption and support exports.

The authorities should continue targeting the equilibrium real effective exchange rate to protect the competitiveness of non-hydrocarbon exports. The premium in the illegal parallel exchange market is detrimental to growth and should be forcefully tackled. Furthermore, there is a case for increasing the indicative foreign exchange ceilings for travelers to more realistic levels.

The stability of the financial sector is welcome. To support its development, competition in the banking sector should be fostered, the development of credit bureaus sped up, the guarantee mechanisms revisited, collateral and insolvency regimes strengthened. The ban on consumer lending should be lifted, and more space provided for mortgage finance. Issuing more sovereign debt and listing well-performing state-owned enterprises on the stock exchange, while removing disincentives to private sector debt and equity issuance, would support the development of capital markets. Finally, immediate steps need to be taken to address deficiencies in the Anti-Money Laundering/Combating the Financing of Terrorism framework.

To accelerate economic growth and job creation, wide-ranging structural reforms are needed. Improving the business environment, enhancing cost competitiveness, and relaxing the restrictive FDI regime are of particular importance, together with deeper trade integration through WTO accession, trade facilitation, and export promotion. Reforms are needed to increase labor market flexibility and ensure that job seekers are equipped with the right skills.


Algeria: Selected Macroeconomic Indicators Baseline Scenario, 2012–14
 

 

2012 2013 2014

 

  Proj. Proj.
 

Output

 

 

 

Real GDP

3.3 2.7 4.3

Nonhydrocarbon real GDP

7.1 5.9 5.3

Employment

 

 

 

Unemployment rate (in percent)

11.0 9.8

Prices

 

 

 

Consumer prices (period average)

8.9 4.5 4.5

 

(In percent of GDP unless, otherwise indicated)

Public finances

 

 

 

Revenue

40.5 38.4 37.6

Hydrocarbon

26.4 23.9 23.2

Expenditure and net lending

44.5 38.7 39.7

Current

30.2 26.0 26.1

Capital

14.4 12.3 13.2

Budget balance

-4.0 -0.2 -2.1

Nonhydrocarbon primary balance (in percent of NHGDP)

-46.4 -34.0 -34.9

Total government debt

9.2 9.4 10.2

 

(Annual percentage change, unless otherwise indicated)

Monetary sector

 

 

 

Credit to the economy 1/

15.1 29.6 10.3

Broad money

10.9 8.6 10.2

Velocity of broad money (level)

1.4 1.4 1.4

Three-month treasury bill rate (end of period, in percent)

0.4
  (In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)

Balance of Payments

 

 

 

Hydrocarbon exports of goods (in US$, percentage change)

-1.5 -7.5 -2.7

Hydrocarbon exports of goods (in percent of total exports of goods)

98.4 98.1 97.8

Imports of goods (in US$, percentage change)

14.9 4.9 0.9

Current account

6.0 1.1 0.3

Foreign direct investment

0.7 0.6 0.6

Total external debt

1.9 1.5 1.3

Gross reserves (in billions of U.S. dollars)

190.7 196.0 196.8

In months of next year's imports of goods and services

34.9 35.6 35.2

Exchange rate

 

 

 

Real effective exchange rate (2005 = 100)

107.2

Local currency per U.S. dollar (period average)

77.6

Oil and gas sector

 

 

 

Total exports of oil and gas products (in billions of U.S. dollars)

70.6 65.3 63.5

Hydrocarbon production (in mn TOE)

173.0 166.0 169.2

Average crude oil export price (in U.S. dollar/barrel)

110.8 111.3 107.9

 

(In percent of GDP)

Investment and Saving

 

 

 

Gross capital formation

40.6 42.6 43.1

Of which: Nongovernment

26.3 30.2 29.9

Gross national savings

46.6 43.6 43.4

Of which: Nongovernment

36.3 31.6 32.3

Memorandum Items:

 

 

 

Nominal GDP (in billions of U.S. dollars)

204 209 214
 

Sources: Algerian authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections.

1/ credit to the private sector and public enterprises

 

 

 


1 Under Article IV of the IMF's Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. A staff team visits the country, collects economic and financial information, and discusses with officials the country's economic developments and policies. On return to headquarters, the staff prepares a report, which forms the basis for discussion by the Executive Board.

2 Article IV consultations are concluded without a Board meeting when the following conditions apply:  (i) there are no acute or significant risks, or general policy issues requiring Board discussion; (ii) policies or circumstances are unlikely to have significant regional or global impact; (iii) in the event a parallel program review is being completed, it is also being completed on a lapse-of-time basis; and (iv) the use of Fund resources is not under discussion or anticipated.



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