Economic Performance Over the Conflict Cycle

June 1, 2004

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Format: Chicago

Nicholas Staines. Economic Performance Over the Conflict Cycle, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2004) accessed September 19, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

The paper finds a significant shift in the economic characteristics of civil conflicts during the1990s. Conflicts have become shorter but with more severe contractions and a stronger recovery of growth. The overall length and cost of the conflict cycle has probably declined. The stance of macroeconomic policy was an important factor while the underlying "conflict process" remained unchanged. This shift seems related to changes in aid flows since the Cold War: donors became disinclined to provide support during conflict, but more inclined after conflict. These findings are buttressed by the post-conflict experience of countries that received financial assistance from the IMF and of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). These findings have implications for policy and aid priorities after conflict.

Subject: Business cycles, Economic growth, Expenditure, Fiscal stance, Inflation, International trade, Prices, Production, Production growth, Terms of trade

Keywords: Aid, Business cycles, Cold war, Conflict, Conflict country, Conflict cycle, Economic activity, Economic impact, Inflation, Inflation rate, International community, Macroeconomic stabilization, Percent change, Policy stance, Post-conflict, Production growth, Sub-Saharan Africa, Terms of trade, War, West Africa, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

41
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2004/095
Stock No:

WPIEA0952004
ISBN:

9781451851854
ISSN:

1018-5941

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