Forecasting Inflation in Sudan

Author/Editor: Moriyama, Kenji ; Naseer, Abdul
Publication Date: June 01, 2009
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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate
Summary: This paper forecasts inflation in Sudan following two methodologies: the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model and by looking at the leading indicators of inflation. The estimated ARMA model remarkably tracks the actual inflation during the sample period. The Granger causality test suggests that private sector credit and world wheat prices are the leading indicators explaining inflation in Sudan. Inflation forecasts based on both approaches suggest that inflationary pressures for 2009 and 2010 will be modest and that inflation will remain in single-digits, assuming that prudent macroeconomic policies are maintained.
Series: Working Paper No. 09/132
Subject(s): Central banks | Commodity price fluctuations | Credit expansion | Data analysis | External shocks | Forecasting models | Inflation | Inflation targeting | Monetary policy | Money supply | Private sector | Sudan | Wheat

Author's Keyword(s): Inflation | Forecasting | ARMA model | and Granger causality.
Publication Date: June 01, 2009
Format: Paper
Stock No: WPIEA2009132 Pages: 25
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