Fiscal Expectations Under the Stability and Growth Pact : Evidence From Survey Data

Author/Editor: Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro ; Jan-Christoph Rülke
Publication Date: March 01, 2011
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Summary: The paper uses survey data to analyze whether financial market expectations on government budget deficits changed in France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom during the period of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). Our findings indicate that accuracy of financial expert deficit forecasts increased in France. Convergence between the European Commission's and market experts’ deficit forecasts also increased in France, Italy, and the United Kingdom, particularly during the period after SGP’s reform in 2005. Yet, convergence between markets’ forecasts and those of the French, German, and Italian national fiscal authorities seems not to have increased significantly during the SGP.
Series: Working Paper No. 11/48
Subject(s): Budget deficits | Economic forecasting | Economic growth | Fiscal stability

Author's Keyword(s): expectations | credibility | Stability and Growth Pact | survey data.
Publication Date: March 01, 2011
ISBN/ISSN: 9781455218943/1018-5941 Format: Paper
Stock No: WPIEA2011048 Pages: 40
US$18.00 (Academic Rate:
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