Fiscal Expectations Under the Stability and Growth Pact : Evidence from Survey Data

Author/Editor:

Jan-Christoph Rülke ; Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro

Publication Date:

March 1, 2011

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary:

The paper uses survey data to analyze whether financial market expectations on government budget deficits changed in France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom during the period of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). Our findings indicate that accuracy of financial expert deficit forecasts increased in France. Convergence between the European Commission's and market experts’ deficit forecasts also increased in France, Italy, and the United Kingdom, particularly during the period after SGP’s reform in 2005. Yet, convergence between markets’ forecasts and those of the French, German, and Italian national fiscal authorities seems not to have increased significantly during the SGP.

Series:

Working Paper No. 11/48

Subject:

English

Publication Date:

March 1, 2011

ISBN/ISSN:

9781455218943/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2011048

Price:

$18.00 (Academic Rate:$18.00)

Format:

Paper

Pages:

40

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