Booms and Slumps in World Commodity Prices
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Summary:
This paper examines the duration and magnitude of commodity-price cycles. It finds that for most commodities, price slumps last longer than price booms. How far prices fall in a slump is found to be slightly larger than how far they rebound in a subsequent boom. There is little evidence of a consistent ‘shape’ to commodity-price cycles. For all commodities, the probability of an end to a slump in prices is independent of the time already spent in the slump, and for most commodities, the probability of an end to a boom in prices is independent of the time already spent in the boom.
Series:
Working Paper No. 1999/155
Subject:
Agricultural commodities Agricultural prices Commodities Commodity booms Commodity prices
English
Publication Date:
November 1, 1999
ISBN/ISSN:
9781451857290/1018-5941
Stock No:
WPIEA1551999
Pages:
25
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