GPM6 : The Global Projection Model with 6 Regions

Author/Editor: Ioan Carabenciov ; Charles Freedman ; Roberto Garcia-Saltos ; Douglas Laxton ; Ondra Kamenik ; Petar Manchev
Publication Date: April 10, 2013
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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate
Summary: This is the sixth of a series of papers that are being written as part of a project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit to which economists have access for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we add three more regions and make a number of other changes to a previously estimated small quarterly projection model of the US, euro area, and Japanese economies. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques, which provide a very efficient way of imposing restrictions to produce both plausible dynamics and sensible forecasting properties.
Series: Working Paper No. 13/87
Subject(s): Forecasting models | Real effective exchange rates | Interest rates | External shocks | Unemployment | Demand | Spillovers | World Economic Outlook

Publication Date: April 10, 2013
ISBN/ISSN: 9781484318942/1018-5941 Format: Paper
Stock No: WPIEA2013087 Pages: 79
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