Deep Roots of Fiscal Behavior

 
Author/Editor: Serhan Cevik ; Katerina Teksoz
 
Publication Date: March 12, 2014
 
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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate
 
Summary: This paper investigates the determinants of fiscal policy behavior and its time-varying volatility, using panel data for a broad set of advanced and emerging market economies during the period 1990–2012. The empirical results show that discretionary fiscal policy is influenced by policy inertia, the level of public debt, and the output gap in both advanced and emerging market economies. In addition, the paper finds that macro-financial factors—such as real exchange rate, financial development, interest rates, asset prices, and natural resource rents—and demographic and institutional factors—such as the old-age dependency ratio, the quality of institutions, and policy anchors such as fiscal rules and IMF-supported stabilization programs—tend to have a significant effect on fiscal policy behavior. The results also indicate that higher government debt leads to more volatile fiscal behavior, while fiscal rules and higher institutional quality reduce the volatility of fiscal policy over time.
 
Series: Working Paper No. 14/45
Subject(s): Fiscal policy | Developed countries | Emerging markets | Cross country analysis | Economic models

 
English
Publication Date: March 12, 2014
ISBN/ISSN: 9781475516111/1018-5941 Format: Paper
Stock No: WPIEA2014045 Pages: 40
Price:
US$18.00 (Academic Rate:
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