Export Spillovers from Global Shocks for the Middle East and Central Asia

 
Author/Editor: Alberto Behar ; Jaime Espinosa-Bowen
 
Publication Date: May 09, 2014
 
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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate
 
Summary: This paper quantifies the effect of realized and potential global growth disappointments on export volumes from the Middle East, North Africa, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. Estimates of export elasticities with respect to trading partner GDP indicate non-oil export volumes are relatively responsive while service exports are less responsive. Downward revisions to global GDP growth for 2011–14 have impeded export performance, and the possibility of disappointing GDP growth in Europe and emerging markets presents further downside risks for exports. The Maghreb countries are particularly sensitive to developments in Europe, while CCA countries are more susceptible to growth in the BRICS.
 
Series: Working Paper No. 14/80
Subject(s): External shocks | Middle East and Central Asia | Spillovers | Exports | Economic models

 
English
Publication Date: May 09, 2014
ISBN/ISSN: 9781484380796/1018-5941 Format: Paper
Stock No: WPIEA2014080 Pages: 31
Price:
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