Export Spillovers from Global Shocks for the Middle East and Central Asia

Author/Editor:

Alberto Behar ; Jaime Espinosa-Bowen

Publication Date:

May 9, 2014

Electronic Access:

Free Full text (PDF file size is 606 KB).Use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view this PDF file

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary:

This paper quantifies the effect of realized and potential global growth disappointments on export volumes from the Middle East, North Africa, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. Estimates of export elasticities with respect to trading partner GDP indicate non-oil export volumes are relatively responsive while service exports are less responsive. Downward revisions to global GDP growth for 2011–14 have impeded export performance, and the possibility of disappointing GDP growth in Europe and emerging markets presents further downside risks for exports. The Maghreb countries are particularly sensitive to developments in Europe, while CCA countries are more susceptible to growth in the BRICS.

Series:

Working Paper No. 14/80

Subject:

English

Publication Date:

May 9, 2014

ISBN/ISSN:

9781484380796/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2014080

Price:

$18.00 (Academic Rate:$18.00)

Format:

Paper

Pages:

31

Please address any questions about this title to publications@imf.org