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World Economic and Financial Surveys

Global Financial Stability Report

Market Developments and Issues
December 2002

©2002 International Monetary Fund
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The Global Financial Stability Report provides quarterly assessments of global financial markets and addresses emerging market financing in a global context.

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 Contents   
 
  Preface
 
Chapter I. Overview: Key Developments and Sources of Financial Market Risks (366KB pdf file)
Key Developments
  Sources of Risk
  Measures to Promote Financial Stability
Development of Local Securities Markets:
   Emerging Derivatives Markets
Chapter II. Key Developments and Sources of Financial Risk in the Major Financial Centers (306KB pdf file)
Key Developments
The Capacity of Key Sectors to Intermediate and Bear Financial Risks
References
Chapter III. Emerging Market Developments and Finance (470KB pdf file)
Emerging Market Financing Overview
Emerging Bond Markets
Performance and Spread Developments
  Regional Developments
  Investor Positioning
  Primary Bond Market Developments
  Emerging Equity Markets
  Syndicated Lending
  Emerging Market Foreign Exchange
  Key Risks to Emerging Market Finance
 
References
Chapter IV. Selected topic: The Role of Financial Derivatives in Emerging Markets (289KB pdf file)
Derivatives in Emerging Market Economies
Local Derivatives Markets and Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies
  The Role of Derivatives in Emerging Market Crises
  Concluding Remarks
References
 
Boxes  
3.1 Risk Retrenchment and Risk Indicators
3.2 Local Debt Structure and Vulnerability to Volatile Debt Dynamics
3.3 Recovery Rates from Defaulted Debt
3.4 Collective Action Clauses
3.5 Emerging Market Bond Developments Since the End of September
4.1 The Bolsa de Mercadorias & Futuros of Sao Paulo
4.2 Credit Default Swap Spreads in Emerging Markets
 
Tables  
1.1 Financial Market Data
2.1 United States: Sectoral Balance Sheets
2.2 Europe: Sectoral Balance Sheets 19
2.3 Europe: Selected Financial Indicators for the 20 Largest Banking Groups, 2001
2.4 Japan: Sectoral Balance Sheets
3.1 Emerging Market Financing Overview
3.2 EMBI+ Performance, 2002
3.3 Equity Market Performance, 2002
3.4 Sector and Country Performance
4.1 Notional Amounts Outstanding of the Over-the-Counter and Exchange-Traded Derivatives
4.2 Average Daily Turnover in the Over-the-Counter Derivatives Markets
4.3 Exchange-Traded Options and Futures Contract Trading Volume, 2001
 
Figures  
2.1 Stock Prices in Selected Major Industrial Countries
2.2 United States, Euro Area, and Japan: Nonfinancial Corporate Credit Spreads
2.3 Historical Volatility: Major Stock Market Indexes
2.4 Currency Derivatives
2.5 United States: Debt Outstanding by Sector
2.6 U.S. and European Banking Systems: Return on Equity
3.1 Emerging Market Financing
3.2 Cumulative Gross Annual Issuance of Bonds, Loans, and Equity
3.3 Sovereign Spreads
3.4 EMBI+ Volatility
3.5 Average Correlation of Emerging Debt Markets
3.6 Brazil
3.7 Real/U.S. Dollar 10-Day Rolling Volatility
3.8 On-Shore Dollar Curve
3.9 Average Correlations of the Returns on Emerging Equity Market Indices
3.10 Net Foreign Equity Purchases and the Kospi
3.11 Equity Placements
3.12 Forward Looking Price-Earnings Ratio
3.13 Twelve-Month Forward Earnings Growth, Emerging Markets Free and S&P 500
3.14 Syndicated Loan Commitments
3.15 Shares of Total Issuance
3.16 Loan-Weighted Interest Margin 48
3.17 Emerging Market Currencies: Historical Volatilities
3.18 Latin American Currencies Against the U.S. Dollar
3.19 Latin American Currencies: Trade-Weighted Indices and Volatility
3.20 Asian Currencies Against the U.S. Dollar
3.21 Volatility of Asian Currencies: Bilaterally and Trade-Weighted
4.1 Korea: Three-Year Government Bond and Bond Futures
4.2 Kospi 200 Index Futures: Cumulative Net Purchases
4.3 Brazil: International Bond and Loan Issuance and Derivatives Trading Volume