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World Economic and Financial Surveys

Regional Economic Outlook:
Sub-Saharan Africa

Sustaining Growth amid Global Uncertainty

April 2012
©2012 International Monetary Fund

Sub-Saharan Africa continues to record strong economic growth, despite the weaker global economic environment. Regional output rose by 5 percent in 2011, with growth set to increase slightly in 2012, helped by still-strong commodity prices, new resource exploitation, and the improved domestic conditions that have underpinned several years of solid trend growth in the region’s low-income countries. But there is variation in performance across the region, with output in middle-income countries tracking more closely the global slowdown and with some sub-regions adversely affected, at least temporarily, by drought. Threats to the outlook include the risk of intensified financial stresses in the euro area spilling over into a further slowing of the global economy and the possibility of an oil price surge triggered by rising geopolitical tensions.


Contents
Abbreviations
Acknowledgements
In Brief
1.  Sustaining Growth amid Global Uncertainty
  Introduction and Summary
  Macroeconomic Policy Choices in an Uncertain World
2.  The Impact of Global Financial Stress on Sub-Saharan African Banking Financial Systems
  Introduction and Summary
  The Region’s Banking System Experience in 2008–09
  Financial Sector Vulnerabilities to Ongoing European Financial Stress
  Policies to Enhance Financial Sector Resiliency
3.  Sub-Saharan Africa’s Natural Resource Exporters: Recent Performance and Policy Challenges
  Introduction and Summary
  Key Features and Recent Experiences.
  Macroeconomic Policy Management Issues
  Conclusions
Statistical Appendix
References
Publications of the IMF African Department, 2009–12
 
Boxes
1.1 Sub-Saharan Africa: Country Groupings
1.2 Impact on WAEMU of the Recovery in Côte d’Ivoire and the Drought in the Sahel
1.3 East Africa: Persistence of the Food and Fuel Shock
1.4 Growth Dynamics in the SACU Region in the Aftermath of the Financial Crisis
1.5 Sub-Saharan Africa’s Exposure through Trade to the Economic Slowdown in the Euro Area
2.1 Nigeria’s Banking Crisis
2.2 Global Financial Spillovers into Sub-Saharan Africa—A GVAR Approach
2.3 Determinants of Financial Soundness Indicators—Bank-level Evidence
3.1 The Distribution of Nonrenewable Natural Resources in Sub-Saharan Africa
3.2 Global Commodity Price Movements
3.3 Structural Transformation among Sub-Saharan African Countries
3.4 Estimating Reserve Adequacy in Resource-Exporting Low-Income Countries
 
Tables
1.1 Sub-Saharan Africa: Real GDP Growth
1.2 Sub-Saharan Africa: Other Macroeconomic Indicators
3.1 Resource-Intensive Countries: Selected Resource Indicators, 2010
3.2 Sub-Saharan Africa: Optimal Level of Reserves in a Sample of Resource-Intensive Countries
 
Figures
1.1 Sub-Saharan Africa: Real GDP Growth by Contry Group
1.2 Sub-Saharan Africa: Low Income Countries and Other World Regions: Real GDP Growth
1.3 Sub-Saharan Africa: Macroeconomic Indicators
1.4 Sub-Saharan Africa: Government Debt Ratios, 2000–11
1.5 Sub-Saharan Africa: Capital Investment, 2000–11
1.6 Sub-Saharan Africa Excluding South Africa: Credit to the Private Sector, 1995–2010
1.7 Selected Regions: Average Labor Productivity Growth, 1990–2009
1.8 Sub-Saharan Africa: CPI and Food Inflation, Average 2011
1.9 Sub-Saharan Africa: Changes in CPI Inflation from 12 Months Earlier, End-2012 vs. End-2011
1.10 Sub-Saharan Africa: Overall Fiscal Balance, 2004–12
1.11 Sub-Saharan Africa Non-resource Exporting LICs: Total Revenue, Excluding Grants, 2000–12
1.12 Sub-Saharan Africa: Total Exports Shares by Partner
1.13 Sub-Saharan Africa: External Current Account Balance, 2004–12
1.14 Sub-Saharan Africa: Headcount Poverty Index Using the $1.25 a Day Poverty Line
1.15 Sub-Saharan Africa: Growth Prospects, 2012 and 2013
2.1 Global Risk Aversion, 2005-12
2.2 Sub-Saharan Africa: Bond Flows, 2008–12
2.3 Sub-Saharan Africa: Equity Flows, 2008–11
2.4 Sub-Saharan Africa, Select Countries: Portfolio and Foreign Direct Investment, June 2011
2.5 Sub-Saharan Africa, Select Countries: Inward Portfolio and Foreign Direct Investment, 2010
2.6 Select Countries: Exchange Rate Flexibility and Stock Market Sensitivity to Changes in Global Risk Aversion
2.7 Sub-Saharan Africa: Capital Flows and External Debt, 2005–10
2.8 Sub-Saharan Africa: Systemic Banking Crises, 1980–2010
2.9 Sub-Saharan Africa: Banks’ Foreign Assets and Liabilities, 2005–10
2.10 Sub-Saharan Africa: Real Domestic Bank Credit, 2004–11:Q2
2.11 Sub-Saharan Africa, Selected Countries: Real Credit Developments, 2005–11
2.12 Sub-Saharan Africa: Financial Soundess Indicators, 2006–10
2.13 Sub-Saharan Africa: Presence of European Banks, 2011
2.14 Sub-Saharan Africa: Liabilities to BIS-Reporting Banks, June 2011
2.15 Credit Default Swap Spreads, 2009–12
2.16 Sub-Saharan Africa: Bank Credit to Sub-Saharan African Residents
2.17 Sub-Saharan Africa: Prevalence of Capital Inflow and Outflow Controls, June 2011
2.18 Sub-Saharan Africa: Banking System Funding, June 2011
2.19 Consolidated Foreign Claims of BIS-reporting Banks on African Countries, 2011
2.20 Sub-Saharan Africa: Broad Financial Intermediation in the Average Sub-Saharan Africa Country, June 2011
2.21 Sub-Saharan Africa: External Loans from and Deposits at BIS-reporting Banks, June 2011
2.22 Sub-Saharan Africa: Ease of Getting Credit (Rank) and Strength of Legal Rights
2.23 Sub-Saharan Africa: Selected Pan-African Banking Groups, June 2011
2.24 World: Observance of Basel Core Principles, 2011
3.1 Sub-Saharan Africa: Major Nonrenewable Exports
3.2 Resource-Intensive Sub-Saharan Africa Countries: Real Resource and Nonresource GDP Growth
3.3 Sub-Saharan Africa: Resource Price Index and Real Effective Exchange Rate, 2000–11
3.4 Sub-Saharan Africa: Total Nonresource Exports, 2001–11
3.5 Sub-Saharan Africa: Fiscal Revenues and Expenditures, 2000–11
3.6 Sub-Saharan Africa: Volatility Indicators, 2000–10
3.7 Sub-Saharan Africa: GDP Minus GNI Per Capita, Selected Years
3.8 Sub-Saharan Africa: Selected Development Indicators, 2010
3.9 Sub-Saharan Africa: Selected Development Indicators, 2005–10
3.10 Sub-Saharan Africa: Social Indicators and Resource Abundance, 2000–09
3.11 Sub-Saharan Africa: Resource Dependence and Institutional Quality
3.12 Sub-Saharan Africa: Recent Changes in the Quality of Institutions
3.13 Sub-Saharan Africa Fiscally Dependent Countries: Resource Revenue and Nonresource Fiscal Deficit
3.14 Selected Countries: Fiscal Benchmarks Using Spring 2012 World Economic Outlook Resource Price Projections