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World Economic and Financial Surveys

Regional Economic Outlook:
Sub-Saharan Africa

Fostering Durable and Inclusive Growth

April 2014
©2014 International Monetary Fund

The April 2014 Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa anticipates a pickup in economic growth in 2014 but the region continues to face risks from both external and internal factors, among them slower growth in emerging markets which could impact both export demand and commodity prices. This report analyzes the possible impact of global forces on continued growth in sub-Saharan Africa and the policy actions that are needed to address these challenges. Chapters also discuss fostering a climate of inclusive growth and improving monetary policy frameworks in the region.


Contents
Abbreviations
Acknowledgements
Executive Summary
1.  Sustaining Growth Amid Shifting Global Forces
  Introduction and Summary
  Shifting Global Forces: What Do They Portend for Sub-Saharan Africa?
  Are Sub-Saharan African Current Account Deficits a Source of Concern?
  Persistent Fiscal Deficits: A Matter of Concern?
  Near-Term Outlook, Downside Risks, and Policy Recommendations
2.  Fostering Durable and Inclusive Growth
  Introduction
  Recent Growth and Human Development Performance
  The Role of Productivity in Reducing Poverty: The Experiences of Mozambique and Vietnam
  The Job Creation Challenge
  The Financial Inclusion Challenge
  Conclusion
3.  Improving Monetary Policy Frameworks
  Monetary Policy Landscape in Sub-Saharan Africa
  Snapshot of Monetary Policy Frameworks in Sub-Saharan Africa
  Key Drivers of the Evolution of Monetary Policy Frameworks in Sub-Saharan Africa
  Responding to Challenges
  How to Make Monetary Policy in Sub-Saharan African Countries More Effective
  Conclusion
Statistical Appendix
References
Publications of the IMF African Department, 2009–14
 
Boxes
1.1. The East African Community Monetary Union Protocol
2.1. Policies that Matter for Increasing a Country’s Per Capita Income Performance
2.2. Structural Factors Affecting Poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa
2.3. Poverty Reduction and the Sectoral Composition of Growth
3.1. Global Evolution of Monetary Policy Frameworks
3.2. Monetary Policy and Terms-of-Trade Shocks in Sub-Saharan Africa
3.3. Adapting Monetary Policy Frameworks to Challenges
3.4. The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Tropics: A Narrative Approach
 
Tables
1.1. Sub-Saharan Africa: Real GDP Growth
1.2. Sub-Saharan Africa: CPI Inflation
1.3. Sub-Saharan Africa: Debt Indicators
1.4. Sub-Saharan Africa: Other Macroeconomic Indicators
3.1. Sub-Saharan Africa: Key Features of Monetary Policy Frameworks, Selected Countries
3.2. Sub-Saharan Africa: Central Bank Monetary Policy Instruments, Selected Years
 
Figures
1.1. Sub-Saharan Africa: Credit Private Sector, 2010–13
1.2. Selected Regions: Projected Real GDP Growth, 2008–18
1.3. International Commodity Prices, Agricultural Products, Average 2014–16 Compared with 2013
1.4. International Commodity Prices, Fuels and Metals, Average 2014–16 Compared with 2013
1.5. Sub-Saharan Africa: Nominal Exchange Rate Developments, U.S. Dollar per National Currency
1.6. Sub-Saharan Africa: Equity Flows to Emerging Market and Frontier Economies
1.7. Sub-Saharan Africa: Bond Flows to Emerging Market and Frontier Economies
1.8. SSub-Saharan Africa: Emerging Market Spreads, 2012–14
1.9. Sub-Saharan Africa: Current Account Balance and Fiscal Balance, 2013
1.10. Sub-Saharan Africa: Inflation
1.11. Sub-Saharan Africa: Real GDP Growth Gap, 2009–15
1.12. Sub-Saharan Africa: Overall Fiscal Balance, 2004–13
1.13. Sub-Saharan Africa: Real Total Revenue Excluding Grants Growth Gap, 2009–15
1.14. Sub-Saharan Africa: Total Public Debt, 2009–13
1.15. Sub-Saharan Africa: Change in Primary Expenditure Items, 2010–13
1.16. Sub-Saharan Africa: Change in Total Revenue and Grants, 2010–13
1.17. Ghana and Zambia: Contributions to Real Primary Expenditure Growth, 2010–13
1.18. Sub-Saharan Africa: Change in Total Public Debt-to-GDP Ratio, 2012–13
1.19. Sub-Saharan Africa: Real GDP Growth, Rates and World Percentile
2.1a. Sub-Saharan Africa: GDP per Capita (PPP)
2.1b. Sub-Saharan Africa: Human Development Index
2.2a. Sub-Saharan Africa: GDP per Capita (PPP) and Human Development Index, 2012
2.2b. Sub-Saharan Africa: GDP per Capita (PPP) and Human Development Index Growth, 2000–12
2.3. Sub-Saharan Africa: Human Development Indicators
2.4. Sub-Saharan Africa: GDP per capita (PPP)
2.5. Sub-Saharan Africa: Income and Demographic Indicators, 2000–13
2.6. Sub-Saharan Africa: Human Development Index, 1990–2012
2.7. Sub-Saharan Africa: Changes in Poverty and GDP per Capita
2.8. Sub-Saharan Africa: Density Estimates of Population-Consumption Distribution
2.9. Mozambique: Poverty Rates, 1996 and 2007
2.10. Vietnam: Poverty Rates, 1992 and 2004
2.11. Mozambique: Employment by Sector, 2002–08
2.12. Vietnam: Employment by Sector, 2000–06
2.13. Mozambique and Vietnam: Real GDP and Total Factor Producti
2.14. Mozambique and Vietnam: Total Factor Productivity in the Agricultural Sector
2.15. Sub-Saharan Africa: Population by Age Group, 2005–20
2.16. Sub-Saharan Africa: Projected Distribution of Employment by Country Type and Sector, 2020
2.17. Total Factor Productivity in Agriculture, 1961–2010
2.18. Sub-Saharan Africa: Financial Access and Financial Deepening, 2011
2.19. Sub-Saharan Africa: Financial Access and Improvements in Human Development
2.20. Sub-Saharan Africa: Financial Access and GDP per Capita, 2011
2.21. SSub-Saharan Africa: Financial Access and Human Development Index, 2011
2.22. Sub-Saharan Africa: Mobile Phones Used to Pay Bills, 2011
3.1. Sub-Saharan Africa: Trends in Inflation, Average Consumer Price Index, 1980–2010
3.2. Sub-Saharan Africa: Inflation, Money Growth, and Velocity, 12-year Average
3.3. Sub-Saharan African: Money Targeters: Evolution of Money Multipliers
3.4. Sub-Saharan African: Money Targeters: Evolution of Money Velocity
3.5. Sub-Saharan Africa: Evolution of Central Bank Credit to the Government and Government Debt
3.6. Sub-Saharan Africa: Exchange Rate Arrangements
3.7. Sub-Saharan Africa: Financial Deepening Indicators
3.8. Sub-Saharan Africa: Impact of Changes in Policy Rates on Other Interest Rates-Experience of Selected Countries, 2003–13