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World Economic and Financial Surveys

Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe

SAFEGUARDING THE RECOVERY AS THE GLOBAL LIQUIDITY TIDE RECEDES

April 2014
©2014 International Monetary Fund

The April 2014 CESEE Regional Economic Issues (REI) assesses the macroeconomic outlook for the region in light of the latest global economic and financial developments.

“CESEE” refers to the following countries: Albania, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Kosovo, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Turkey, and Ukraine.


Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
I.  Recent Developments and Outlook
II.  CESEE External Funding Patterns and Risks
  A.  Funding Structures in CESEE
  B.  Global Environment and Funding Conditions for CESEE
  C.  Which CESEE Countries May be Vulnerable to External Financial Shocks?
  D.  How Would Tighter Financial Conditions Affect Growth and Debt Dynamics in CESEE Countries?
III.  Policy Priorities
ABBREVIATIONS
REFERENCES
Box 1. Inflation Developments in CESEE
Box 2. Potential Spillovers from Regional Geopolitical Tensions
Box 3. Global Financial Environment and Foreign Funding Flows to CESEE
Box 4. Vulnerability of CESEE Countries to External Financial Shocks
Box 5. Sensitivity Analysis of Funding Costs and Portfolio Flows
FIGURES
   
TABLES
   
ANNEXES