Food Inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa

IMF Blog, December 6, 2021

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Food accounts for roughly 40 percent of the region’s consumption basket—a measure of goods and services used to measure consumer price index (CPI) inflation.
Food inflation increased throughout 2019, on average, across 20 countries in the region where monthly food price data are available.
After remaining stable around 9 percent (year over year) since the beginning of the pandemic, food inflation started to rise again from April this year to some 11 percent in October.
Overall consumer price inflation in sub-Saharan Africa rose to about 9 percent in October, up from around 6 percent in 2019.

Rising oil prices, which raise fertilizer prices and transportation costs.
Droughts and export restrictions imposed by some major food exporters.
Stockpiling in some countries.
Pandemic-related disruptions: containment measures that disrupted production and imports of seeds and fertilizers and caused labor shortages during planting seasons.
Domestic factors such as weather and exchange rates also play important roles.

Food inflation exhibits wide variation across the region:
- Chad: food inflation is near zero.
- Angola: food inflation is around 30 percent.
This diversity suggests domestic factors (weather, exchange rates) can be decisive alongside global drivers.

The outlook is highly uncertain.
Possible moderating scenario:
- Food inflation and CPI inflation could moderate if commodity prices ease and pandemic-induced global supply chain disruptions resolve.
Persistence scenario:
- High food inflation could persist if inflation expectations become de-anchored or supply chain disruptions continue.
Near-term expectation:
- Regionwide, average inflation is expected to edge up in 2021 before easing next year depending on commodity prices and the resolution of supply-demand mismatches.

Higher food inflation would worsen the situation for countries already facing food insecurity and shortages with a disproportional impact on poor households.
The number of undernourished persons in the region is projected to have increased by 20 percent in 2020, encompassing 264 million people.

Fight food insecurity through targeted social assistance and insurance to help populations cope.
Avoid trade barriers.
Improve access to:
- Finance
- Seed stocks
- Insecticide
- Fertilizer
- Anti-erosion measures
- Irrigation

The figures for number of countries and corresponding inflation rates were changed several hours after initial publication to update earlier data presented.

IMF Blog — Seung Mo Choi, December 6, 2021.