How Distrust of Government by Marginalized People Fuels Conflict in Africa

IMF Blog, January 25, 2024

Source details

Canonical URL: How Distrust of Government by Marginalized People Fuels Conflict in Africa

Authors: Hany Abdel Latif, Mahmoud El Gamal
Publication date: January 25, 2024
Publication type: IMFBlog page
Context: Sub-Saharan Africa and Sahel countries (Burkina Faso, Chad, Niger, Mauritania, Mali) face protracted conflicts and humanitarian crises.
Time horizon of analysis: 1990 to 2022
Institutional note: IMF is an organization of 191 countries.

Distrust of state institutions among marginalized groups is identified as a key driver of unrest in sub-Saharan Africa.
Distrust reflects perceptions that governments fail to address equity issues and inclusive growth, including:
- fair allocation of natural resources
- human capital development
Institutional failures aggravate feelings of exclusion where some people or groups are systematically denied rights, opportunities, or resources that may be available to other segments of the population.
Conflict often concentrates near national borders where public services tend to be limited or insufficient, fostering feelings of exclusion and creating conflict-prone hotspots with cross-border spillover risks.
Notable conflicts with potential cross-border spillovers include:
- the recent civil war in Ethiopia
- long-running conflicts in South Sudan and the Central African Republic
- extremism-driven conflicts across the Sahel and northern Mozambique

The analysis covers conditions across all countries in sub-Saharan Africa from 1990 to 2022.
The study introduces a new exclusion index to explore the instrumental role of social, political, and economic exclusion in driving conflicts.

Exclusion and distrust are not the only causes of conflict; other contributing factors include:
- climate change
- food insecurity
Poverty and underdevelopment alone may not fuel conflict but are exacerbated by experiences or perceptions of social and economic exclusion, creating fertile ground for armed groups.
Security crises have dire repercussions and interact with these challenges, highlighting needs for:
- humanitarian assistance
- improved quality and efficiency of security expenditures
- combating terrorism financing
Efforts focused solely on security and humanitarian assistance may fall short if exclusion is not simultaneously addressed.

Mitigating violent conflict requires a comprehensive approach addressing various forms of exclusion.
Fostering relationships between people and government is crucial, with emphasis on:
- ensuring justice
- equitable public service delivery
- improving access to services
Addressing equity, inclusive growth, and fair allocation of resources is central to establishing conditions for sustainable peace and social cohesion.

Source: IMFBlog, "How Distrust of Government by Marginalized People Fuels Conflict in Africa", January 25, 2024.