Sovereign Debt Restructuring Process Is Improving Amid Cooperation and Reform
IMF Blog, June 26, 2024
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- Authors: Ceyla Pazarbasioglu
- Published: June 26, 2024
Overview and recent developments
- Author: Ceyla Pazarbasioglu; Date: June 26, 2024.
- The global economy avoided a systemic debt crisis in recent years, but vulnerabilities persist because of high debt servicing costs that pose important challenges for low and middle-income countries.
- When sovereigns falter, faster restructurings reduce human and economic costs; delays worsen poverty and creditor losses.
Progress in creditor cooperation and speed of restructurings
- Common Framework outcomes:
- Reduces time from IMF staff level agreement to financing assurances from official creditors required for program approval.
- Example timings: Ghana’s agreement this year took five months to cover those steps, roughly half the time it took for Chad in 2021 and Zambia in 2022.
- Ethiopia’s talks are likely to be faster, closer to the customary two or three months.
- Improvements reflect increased experience and engagement with non-traditional official creditors such as China, India, and Saudi Arabia.
- Emerging market restructurings outside the Common Framework:
- Sri Lanka’s case was faster than the Suriname process in 2021, reflecting better creditor coordination and understanding of safeguards and assurances.
- Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable (GSDR):
- Introduced by the IMF, World Bank and the G20 Presidency early last year.
- Helped address technical disagreements on comparability of treatment, debt coverage, information sharing, and processes and timelines.
- Progress summarized in a recent report has accelerated ongoing cases and built foundations for future restructurings.
IMF policy reforms to speed engagement
- Executive Board reforms (adopted in April) provide tools to generally allow IMF program approval within two or three months of a staff-level agreement, including through safeguards to proceed amid creditor coordination problems.
- Approval in principle for programs:
- Enables disbursement as soon as financing assurances materialize.
- Increases transparency and helps complicated cases move on a faster schedule.
- New procedure for establishing financing assurances:
- IMF would assess that a “credible official creditor process” is underway based on creditor actions and track record.
- Intended to be considerably faster than waiting for formal letters over time.
- Reforms will:
- Facilitate faster engagement with debtor countries.
- Provide more information to creditors (economic projections, policy commitments, debt sustainability analysis).
- Complement Fund efforts to improve transparency and timely information sharing with stakeholders.
Remaining risks and measured progress
- Sovereign defaults and requests for comprehensive debt relief have tapered off since 2021 and 2022; the last notable request was Ghana’s more than a year ago.
- Market indicators:
- Markets reopened earlier this year for low-income countries; Benin, Cote d’Ivoire, Kenya, and Senegal raised money from foreign investors.
- Emerging market bond spreads are back to pre-pandemic levels.
- Spreads for about 15 percent of emerging markets are at distressed levels.
- Low-income country financing needs and risks:
- Low-income countries still need to refinance about $60 billion of external debt each year over the next two years—about triple the average in the decade through 2020.
- Around 15 percent of low-income countries are in debt distress and another 40 percent are at high risk of distress.
Next steps and policy recommendations
- GSDR will continue to address outstanding restructuring challenges, including:
- How official and private creditor processes can move in parallel.
- Ways to address liquidity challenges.
- Potential menu of options: use of the Common Framework for coordinated liquidity relief; liquidity management operations such as debt swaps or buy backs; ways to support new inflows including through risk-sharing instruments.
- IMF actions:
- Publish a sovereign debt handbook later this year to distill policies and underpin more efficient processes.
- Review the debt sustainability framework for low-income countries jointly with the World Bank to ensure fitness for purpose.
- Broader policy priorities:
- Borrowers must foster economic growth and boost government revenues to create fiscal space for development and climate-related spending while keeping debt sustainable.
- Official creditors should consider mobilizing more funding at reduced cost, particularly grants, given the time needed for borrower policy reforms to deliver results.
- The Fund will continue to support efforts and provide adequate financing, including through review of concessional facilities.
- A forthcoming blog will elaborate on international cooperation to ease borrowing burdens and alleviate the liquidity squeeze facing many emerging and low-income countries.
Source: IMF blog post “Sovereign Debt Restructuring Process Is Improving Amid Cooperation and Reform” (June 26, 2024).
Content in this bundle
- Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable — Compendium of GSDR Common Understanding on Technical Issues