Projecting Public Debt - The Public Debt Dynamics Tool

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Presented by the Institute for Capacity Development.
Some knowledge of economics is helpful.
Basic Microsoft Excel skills and access to a computer with a reliable internet connection and a Google Chrome web browser are essential.

All government officials are welcome to register.
Particularly useful for officials from ministries of finance, debt agencies, central banks, and other government agencies responsible for implementing macroeconomic and debt policies.

Two-module online course explaining how to project the stock of public debt over time for baseline (most likely) and alternative scenarios.
Introduces the underpinnings of public debt dynamics (i.e., the evolution of public debt over time).
Explains application using an easy-to-use Excel-based Public Debt Dynamics Tool (DDT).
Uses projections of some 10 key macroeconomic and financial variables to produce public debt projections under baseline and stress test scenarios.
Produces fan charts that describe uncertainty about the evolution of debt over time in a probabilistic manner.
Identifies the main drivers of public debt changes.
Computes measures of fiscal adjustments necessary to achieve a user-specified public debt target within a certain period.

Upon completion, participants should be able to:

Compute public debt dynamics.
Identify the main drivers of public debt dynamics.
Compute measures of fiscal adjustments necessary to achieve a public debt target.
Conduct a stress test to public debt dynamics, including through the use of fan charts.
Identify the main components of a debt sustainability analysis to assess the risk of debt distress.