Enhanced Data for Better Macro-Policies, STA Capacity Development Conference for Africa
IMF News, February 2, 2016
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- Published: February 2, 2016
Purpose and framing
- Opening remarks by the Deputy Managing Director Min Zhu at the STA Capacity Development Conference for Africa in Accra, Ghana.
- Conference aims to highlight the importance of data for economic decision-making and focus on the relationship between more and better data and improved economic outcomes.
- Three main focus areas:
- The importance of accurate data for analysis and policy making;
- Regional Integration of statistics and macroeconomic policy making;
- The linkage between data transparency and policy making.
Data accuracy — findings and implications
- Accurate macroeconomic and financial data are essential for government and central bank decisions, and for scrutiny by stakeholders including the IMF, investment banks, rating agencies, development partners, and civil society.
- Recent improvements in Africa:
- New data sources and collection tools (foreign direct investment surveys; tablets and cell phones).
- Improved data compilation methods to apply internationally accepted statistical methodologies.
- Examples include updated levels of GDP and growth rates and higher-frequency indicators on real activity and prices aiding inflation-targeting policies.
- Case example: Zambia
- IMF assistance in adopting the 2008 SNA and improving surveys and coverage of informal activity.
- Rebasing produced national accounts for 2010 released in March 2014 that were about 25 percent higher than measured before.
- Implications: reassessments of revenue effort, debt sustainability, money demand, and inclusiveness of growth.
- Data revolution and BIG DATA:
- New, abundant data can enhance decision-making but also complicate choices due to volume.
- Policy emphasis:
- Investment in improving data collection, processing, dissemination, and analysis is worthwhile to improve macroeconomic policy decisions.
- The IMF and STA will encourage and support these improvements, with donor partnerships (example: DFID funding).
Regional integration — findings and priorities
- Regional integration efforts in Africa require coordinated statistical initiatives:
- Harmonization of data sources and methods to enable comparison within sub-regions and across countries.
- Analytical work on optimal currency areas and harmonization of fiscal and monetary policies depends on common datasets and methods.
- Learning from other regions:
- Draw lessons from Europe’s experience with integration and harmonization.
- IMF role:
- Support regional statistical harmonization through legal and institutional instruments, common datasets in line with international standards, and methods for data compilation and dissemination.
Data transparency — initiatives and outcomes
- Data dissemination audiences: citizens, domestic and international companies, investors, rating agencies, data resellers, academia, media, development partners, and the IMF.
- Post-2008-09 crisis response:
- The G-20 Data Gaps Initiative launched on the basis of 20 recommendations and endorsed in 2009; focused on financial sector risks, cross-border linkages, vulnerability to shocks, and improving communication of official statistics.
- Second phase emphasizes regular collection under existing and new frameworks and strengthens links to the IMF’s highest-tier data standard, the SDDS Plus (introduced in 2014).
- To date, eight countries have joined the SDDS Plus.
- e-GDDS (introduced May 2015):
- Designed to assist countries in improving data transparency by publishing essential data and leveraging Article IV consultations to raise statistical issues to senior policy-makers.
- Some 110 economies—or roughly 60 percent of the IMF’s membership—can benefit from the e-GDDS.
- Encourages dissemination of key data in 15 data categories according to coverage, periodicity, and timeliness guidelines in the e-GDDS framework.
- Allows dissemination, at each country’s choosing, of possibly up to 300 indicators underlying the 17 new Sustainable Development Goals (the full set slated to be adopted by the United Nations Statistical Commission in March 2016).
- Implementation support and examples:
- STA provides TA and training on the e-GDDS to set up National Summary Data Pages (NSDP), Advance Release Calendars, and IT aspects.
- Botswana identified as the first e-GDDS country.
- STA supporting web-based Open Data Platforms (ODP) with pilots in some two dozen African countries in cooperation with the African Development Bank.
- Broader access:
- Effective January 2015, STA’s macroeconomic data covering all economic sectors across a large part of the IMF’s membership was made freely accessible.
- New online dissemination portal rolled out at http://data.imf.org.
- Expected benefits:
- Robust, regular dissemination of data to support evidence-based policy-making and assessment of economic vulnerabilities and risks.
- Regular monitoring and reporting by IMF staff to stimulate peer competition and beneficial pressure from stakeholders and markets.
- Emphasis that producing and compiling statistics is insufficient without effective dissemination and use.
IMF partnerships and capacity development — activities and results
- STA capacity development represents more than half of STA’s activities.
- IMF fiscal year ended in April 2015:
- STA sent 667 TA missions to countries around the world.
- STA organized 111 training events reaching thousands of country participants.
- About half of this TA on statistical issues is benefiting low-income countries, many in Africa.
- TA missions to fragile states slated to double between FY2014 to FY2016.
- Traditional focus areas:
- National accounts, prices, government finance statistics, monetary and financial sector statistics, and external sector statistics.
- IMF authored/co-authored some two dozen Manuals and Guides, including the Balance of Payments Manual Compilation Guide and the 2014 Government Finance Statistics Manual.
- Expanded focus areas:
- TA and training on data dissemination, development of open data platforms, high-frequency indicators for monetary policy, source data to improve national accounts, real sector price statistics, sectoral accounts, and balance sheet analysis.
- Donor and partner support:
- Partners include Japan, the UK, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Belgium, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the Center of Economics and Finance in Kuwait, and partners supporting nine Regional Technical Assistance Centers.
- Cooperation has enabled pilots and broader capacity development across African countries.
Special initiative: EDDI and DFID partnership
- Enhanced Data Dissemination Initiative (EDDI):
- Five-year project that ended in March 2015, supported by DFID.
- EDDI supported 165 STA technical assistance (TA) missions and 28 workshops on behalf of the 25 participating African countries.
- TA and training organized around modules addressing monetary and financial statistics, government finance statistics, balance of payments statistics, and real sector statistics (national accounts and prices).
- EDDI received DFID’s highest evaluation rating, with strong assessments on relevance, impact, and sustainability.
- Resulted in more comprehensive, timely, and higher-quality data in many countries.
- EDDI Phase 2:
- Began in May 2015 and expands to 44 countries (including the Middle East and Central Asia), with increased support to fragile states.
- Aims to continue improving compilation and dissemination of a broad range of macroeconomic statistics to promote economic governance, transparency, and support stability and sustainable growth.
- Expected specific benefits: strengthened government finance statistics to promote fiscal transparency and reduce fiscal risks; improved national accounts and price data to inform macroeconomic policy stance; stronger external sector statistics to assess vulnerability to exogenous shocks.
Conclusion — objectives and commitments
- The IMF seeks to listen and learn from national agencies—national statistical agencies, central banks, and ministries of finance—about the role of data in policy decisions.
- The IMF will continue to:
- Support efforts to improve data through development and refinement of internationally accepted statistical standards.
- Provide technical assistance and training to sustain countries’ data improvement efforts.
- Key message: better data are essential to avoid basing policy decisions on guesses and opinions; “We Need Really Good Data to Attain Real Results.”
Opening remarks by the Deputy Managing Director Min Zhu, STA Capacity Development Conference for Africa, February 2, 2016.