IMF Executive Board Approves US$134.04 Million under the ECF Arrangement for Niger
IMF News, January 24, 2017
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- Published: January 24, 2017
Approval and Financing
- On January 23, 2017 the Executive Board approved a three-year arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) for Niger for an amount equivalent to SDR 98.7 million (about US$134.04 million, or 75 percent of Niger’s quota).
- The Executive Board’s decision enables an immediate disbursement of SDR 14.1 million (about US$19.15 million).
- The remaining amounts will be phased over the duration of the program, subject to semi-annual reviews.
- Niger’s IMF quota is SDR 131.6 million.
Program Objectives and Priorities
- The new ECF-supported program aims to:
- Enhance macroeconomic stability.
- Foster high and equitable growth, boost incomes and create jobs.
- Strengthen foundations for sustainable development.
- Make growth more inclusive and reduce poverty, in line with the government’s Economic Development Document.
- Policy priorities highlighted:
- Preserve fiscal and debt sustainability.
- Enhance fiscal space and improve public financial management and the efficiency of spending to finance infrastructure and social spending.
- Broaden the tax base to reduce dependence on volatile natural resource revenues.
- Strengthen efficiency of tax and customs administration and improve tax collection.
- Prioritize public spending and enhance expenditure control, including full implementation of the Treasury Single Account (TSA) and a strong framework for liquidity management to prevent domestic arrears accumulation and contain rising debt levels.
- Anchor reforms on more efficient investment, improved business climate, more inclusive financial development, a comprehensive strategy for addressing gender issues, and harnessing the demographic dividend.
Recent Economic Developments (Annex)
- Macroeconomic performance in 2016:
- Growth projected to increase to 4.6 percent in 2016 from 3.5 percent in 2015.
- Inflation contained at 1.1 percent in 2016.
- Budget execution:
- Impacted by lower-than-targeted revenue collection partly due to unfavorable developments in commodity sectors and continued economic problems in neighboring countries.
- At end-June 2016, most fiscal targets other than for government revenue were met.
- In response to a larger shortfall in the second half of 2016, the authorities curtailed commitments on nonpriority expenditures for the last quarter of 2016 to avoid accumulation of payments arrears and resort to domestic financing.
- Structural reforms:
- Progress made, albeit with delays.
Medium-term Outlook and Risks
- Outlook projections:
- Real GDP growth projected to increase to 5.2 percent in 2017, driven by agriculture and an expected pick-up in oil production.
- Inflation expected to remain contained below 2 percent in 2017.
- Real GDP growth expected to average 6.1 percent during 2018-21, mainly due to expansion of extractive industries and increased public and private investments.
- Inflation expected to remain below the 3 percent WAEMU convergence criterion.
- Key risks:
- Negative externalities of regional conflicts.
- Vulnerability to natural disasters.
- Economic turmoil in the sub-region.
Program Design Highlights
- Program builds on lessons from previous ECF arrangements and progress under the 2012-16 ECF, including:
- Strengthening public financial management.
- Strengthening debt management.
- Deepening the financial sector.
- The program emphasizes accommodating permanently elevated security spending while creating fiscal space for infrastructure and enhancing social spending.
- Preserving macroeconomic stability is underscored as essential for reducing poverty, improving the business climate, enhancing financial access, diversifying the economy, and increasing resilience.
Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 2014-21 (key figures preserved)
- GDP at constant prices (annual percent change): 2014: 7.0; 2015: 3.5; 2016 Est.: 4.6; 2017 Proj.: 5.2; 2018 Program: 5.5; 2019: 5.4; 2020: 7.4; 2021: 6.2.
- Non-resources GDP at constant prices (annual percent change): 2014: 7.9; 2015: 4.1; 2016 Est.: 4.3; 2017 Proj.: 5.0; 2018 Program: 5.6; 2019: 6.0; 2020: 5.7; 2021: 5.7.
- Oil production (thousand barrels per day): 2014: 17; 2015: 13; 2016 Est.: 16; 2017 Proj.: 18; 2018 Program: 19; 2019: 40; 2020: 50.
- GDP deflator: 2014: -0.5; 2015: 0.5; 2016 Est.: 2.0; 2017 Proj.: 2.4; 2018 Program: 2.1; 2019: 1.8; 2020: 1.6; 2021: 1.9.
- Consumer price index, annual average: 2014: -0.9; 2015: 1.0; 2016 Est.: 1.1.
- Consumer price index, end-of-period: 2014: -0.6; 2015: 2.2; 2016 Est.: 1.2.
- Exports, f.o.b. (CFA francs) annual percent change: 2014: -8.8; 2015: -10.1; 2016 Est.: -10.7; 2017 Proj.: 13.7; 2018 Program: 12.3; 2019: 33.4; 2020: 17.8.
- Of which: non-uranium exports: 2014: -1.5; 2015: -15.2; 2016 Est.: -8.6; 2017 Proj.: 10.3; 2018 Program: 13.4; 2019: 21.1; 2020: 49.0; 2021: 22.5.
- Imports, f.o.b. (CFA francs) annual percent change: 2014: 9.6; 2015: -11.7; 2016 Est.: 19.5; 2017 Proj.: 11.2; 2018 Program: 9.3; 2019: 9.0; 2020: 6.7.
- Export volume (annual percent change): 2014: 11.1; 2015: -4.5; 2016 Est.: -19.0; 2017 Proj.: 6.6; 2018 Program: 9.1; 2019: 14.1; 2020: 42.6; 2021: 13.9.
- Import volume (annual percent change): 2014: 7.3; 2015: -12.6; 2016 Est.: 17.1; 2017 Proj.: 8.9; 2018 Program: 6.8; 2019: 4.5; 2020: 6.7.
- Terms of trade (deterioration -): 2014: -19.4; 2015: -7.5; 2016 Est.: 0.1; 2017 Proj.: -3.6; 2018 Program: -9.1; 2019: -1.8.
- Total revenue (percent of GDP): 2014: 17.5; 2015: 18.1; 2016 Est.: 15.3; 2017 Proj.: 16.1; 2018 Program: 16.8; 2019: 19.1; 2020: 20.3; 2021: 31.0.
- Total expenditure and net lending (percent of GDP): 2014: 32.7; 2015: 26.5; 2016 Est.: 28.1; 2017 Proj.: 27.3; 2018 Program: 26.4; 2019: 26.0; 2020: 24.4.
- Of which: current expenditure (percent of GDP): 2014: 26.5; 2015: 28.1; 2016 Est.: 27.3; 2017 Proj.: 26.4; 2018 Program: 26.0; 2019: 24.4.
- Of which: capital expenditure (percent of GDP): 2014: 14.6; 2015: 15.6; 2016 Est.: 14.4; 2017 Proj.: 14.2; 2018 Program: 13.2; 2019: 13.1; 2020: 12.5; 2021: 13.1.
- Basic balance (excluding grants)1 (percent of GDP): 2014: -6.4; 2015: -4.4; 2016 Est.: -4.9; 2017 Proj.: -4.0; 2018 Program: -2.8; 2019: 1.5.
- Basic balance (WAEMU definition; including grants)2 (percent of GDP): 2014: -4.8; 2015: -5.7; 2016 Est.: -2.9; 2017 Proj.: -3.8; 2018 Program: -1.7; 2019: 0.0.
- Overall balance (commitment basis, including grants) (percent of GDP): 2014: -8.0; 2015: -6.5; 2016 Est.: -7.4; 2017 Proj.: -6.0; 2018 Program: -4.7; 2019: -4.7.
- Gross investment (percent of GDP): 2014: 39.3; 2015: 39.5; 2016 Est.: 42.0; 2017 Proj.: 42.8; 2018 Program: 43.0; 2019: 40.1; 2020: 37.9; 2021: 37.9.
- Of which: non-government investment (percent of GDP): 2014: 22.9; 2015: 25.4; 2016 Est.: 27.4; 2017 Proj.: 28.4; 2018 Program: 29.7; 2019: 30.5; 2020: 27.5; 2021: 26.7.
- Gross national savings (percent of GDP): 2014: 23.8; 2015: 24.5; 2016 Est.: 24.1; 2017 Proj.: 24.0; 2018 Program: 24.3; 2019: 24.6.
- External current account balance excluding official grants (percent of GDP): 2014: -17.7; 2015: -19.7; 2016 Est.: -17.3; 2017 Proj.: -19.5; 2018 Program: -20.0; 2019: -16.7; 2020: -14.3.
- External current account balance (including grants) (percent of GDP): 2014: -15.4; 2015: -18.1; 2016 Est.: -18.0; 2017 Proj.: -18.5; 2018 Program: -18.5.
- Debt-service ratio as percent of exports of goods and services: 2014: 7.7; 2015: 6.3; 2016 Est.: 5.9; 2017 Proj.: 4.4; 2018 Program: 4.8.
- Total public and publicly guaranteed debt (percent of GDP): 2014: 33.7; 2015: 41.9; 2016 Est.: 47.0; 2017 Proj.: 51.1; 2018 Program: 53.0; 2019: 53.9; 2020: 52.4; 2021: 50.3.
- Public and publicly guaranteed external debt (percent of GDP): 2014: 25.1; 2015: 30.4; 2016 Est.: 34.1; 2017 Proj.: 35.8; 2018 Program: 37.1; 2019: 38.1; 2020: 38.5; 2021: 39.0.
- NPV of external debt (percent of GDP): 2014: 22.1; 2015: 26.2; 2016 Est.: 26.8; 2017 Proj.: 27.1.
- Public domestic debt (percent of GDP): 2014: 12.9; 2015: 15.8; 2016 Est.: 11.4.
- Foreign aid (percent of GDP): 2014: 9.5; 2015: 7.5.
- GDP at current market prices (Billions of CFAF): 2014: 4,077; 2015: 4,242; 2016 Est.: 4,432; 2017 Proj.: 4,773; 2018 Program: 5,146; 2019: 5,524; 2020: 6,025; 2021: 6,523.
IMF Press Release No. 17/18, January 24, 2017.