IMF Staff Concludes Visit to Barbados

IMF News, June 29, 2017

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Economic growth in 2016 is estimated to have been 1.6 percent.
Economic growth is estimated to have accelerated in the first quarter of 2017 to 2 percent.
The stronger economic performance has supported a reduction in the unemployment rate to 9.7 percent in 2016 from 11.3 percent in 2015.
Inflation started to pick up in the second half of 2016 after deflation in 2015, and on a point-to-point basis reached 3.2 percent by end-December 2016 mainly due to higher food prices.

The current account has further narrowed by 2 percentage points to 4.5 percent of GDP on the back of improved tourism receipts, a robust increase in exports, and low oil prices.
International reserves fell to B$682 million by end-2016, about 2 months of imports.
Delayed official loan disbursements and privatization, as well as lower private-sector inflows, were key drivers of the decline in reserves.
Net International reserves remain relatively low.

There was some progress in reducing the fiscal deficit in FY2016/17, which is estimated to have declined to 5.5 percent of GDP from 6.8 percent in FY2015/16.
The majority of the adjustment was generated by lower government spending, while fiscal revenues held steady.
Large government financing requirements remained a challenge as banks reduced their sovereign exposure, forcing the government to increasingly resort to funding from the Central Bank of Barbados (CBB).
Transfers to public enterprises of close to 8 percent on an annual basis represent the second largest expenditure item, after the wage bill, and about the same magnitude as the interest bill on the public debt.

The May 30th budget accelerates the pace of adjustment and is primarily focused on raising revenues while shoring up international reserves.
The budget increases the National Social Responsibility Levy (NSRL)—which mostly impacts imported goods—from 2 percent to 10 percent.
The government plans cuts in current expenditure, to complete ongoing privatization efforts, and to undertake new divestments.
The government seeks to initiate a voluntary exchange of debt instruments with the National Insurance Scheme and the CBB to reduce the interest bill.
Growth in 2017 is projected to slow to less than 1 percent, reflecting the fiscal consolidation efforts introduced in the FY2017/18 Budget.
Inflation is expected to continue to accelerate to 6.7 percent by year end because of the increase in the NSRL and other taxes and fees, but revert to more historical norm in 2018 and subsequent years.
Important downside risks include the increase in domestic and global uncertainty, including the impact of the Brexit on the British pound.

Continued fiscal discipline, together with economic growth, are essential to bolstering international reserves and supporting the currency peg.
Only a substantial and sustained reduction in the fiscal deficit, which will put the debt-to-GDP ratio on a solid downward path, will restore the country’s credit rating and attractiveness to investors.
Over the medium-term, further fiscal adjustment would be needed on the expenditure side to decisively reduce debt and debt service costs.
Reduction in transfers to public enterprises must be supported by structural reforms to:
- reduce SOEs’ operating costs,
- rationalize their programs,
- raise their revenues.
Consideration should be given to divesting commercial SOEs that can be run more efficiently and profitably by the private sector.
Other structural reform, especially those focused on improving the investment climate and fostering growth, are also critical.
If implemented as envisaged, the 2017 budget would lead to substantial gains toward improving public finances.

An IMF team led by Judith Gold visited Barbados from June 20–29 to review recent economic developments and discuss the 2017 budget.
The IMF stands ready to assist the Government of Barbados, including through continued policy dialogue and technical assistance.
The mission met with Minister of Finance and Economic Affairs Christopher Sinckler, Minister of Industry, International Business, Commerce, and Small Business Development Donville Inniss, Acting Central Bank Governor Cleviston Haynes, the leader of the opposition Mia Mottley, senior government officials, and representatives of the private sector.

IMF Communications Department — Press Release No. 17/255