July 13, 2017
PRESS OFFICER: Randa Elnagar
Phone: +1 202 623-7100Email: MEDIA@IMF.org
On July 13, 2017, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the first review of Egypt’s economic reform program supported by an arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF). The completion of the review allows the authorities to draw the equivalent of SDR 895.48 million (about US$1.25 billion), bringing total disbursements to SDR 2,865.53 million about US$4 billion.
The three-year EFF arrangement in the amount equivalent to SDR 8.597 billion (about US$12 billion at the time of approval, or 422 percent of quota) was approved by the Executive Board on November 11, 2016 (see Press Release No. 16/501) to support the authorities’ economic reform program.
The authorities’ reform program supported by the EFF will help Egypt restore macroeconomic stability and promote inclusive growth. Policies supported by the program aim to correct external imbalances and restore competitiveness, reduce the budget deficit and place public debt on a declining path, boost growth and create jobs while protecting vulnerable groups. In completing the review, the Executive Board approved the authorities’ request for waivers of the June performance criteria for the primary fiscal balance and the fuel subsidy bill. These were missed due to higher costs of imported food and fuel products caused by large depreciation of the pound. The waiver was approved in view of the important measures taken in June to contain fuel subsidies and the planned stronger fiscal adjustment in the next two years, which will keep the program objectives on track.
Following the Executive Board discussion on Egypt, Mr. David Lipton, First Deputy Managing Director and Acting Chair, said:
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Table 1. Egypt: Selected Macroeconomic Indicators, 2014/15–2017/18 1/ |
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2014/15 |
2015/16 |
2016/17 |
2017/18 |
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Prel. |
EFF |
Revised |
EFF |
Revised |
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Output and prices |
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Real GDP (market prices) |
4.4 |
4.3 |
4.0 |
3.5 |
4.8 |
4.5 |
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Consumer prices (end of period) |
11.4 |
14.0 |
16.6 |
32.8 |
11.1 |
10.3 |
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Consumer prices (period average) |
11.0 |
10.2 |
18.2 |
23.9 |
13.3 |
22.1 |
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Public finances 2/ |
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Gross Debt |
88.5 |
96.9 |
93.8 |
98.4 |
89.1 |
87.7 |
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External |
7.9 |
7.7 |
10.1 |
20.8 |
8.9 |
19.1 |
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Domestic |
80.5 |
89.0 |
83.7 |
77.7 |
80.2 |
68.6 |
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Budget sector 3/ |
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Revenue and grants |
19.0 |
18.0 |
20.7 |
18.2 |
18.8 |
18.8 |
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Expenditure (incl. net acquisition of financial assets) |
30.5 |
30.3 |
30.5 |
28.7 |
27.2 |
27.3 |
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Of which: Energy subsidies |
4.0 |
3.0 |
2.6 |
3.9 |
1.4 |
3.1 |
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Overall balance |
-11.4 |
-12.3 |
-9.8 |
-10.5 |
-8.4 |
-8.5 |
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Overall balance, excl. grants |
-12.5 |
-12.5 |
-9.9 |
-10.5 |
-8.5 |
-8.6 |
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Primary balance |
-3.5 |
-3.4 |
-0.8 |
-1.8 |
1.1 |
0.4 |
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Monetary sector |
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Credit to the private sector |
16.7 |
14.2 |
8.3 |
37.8 |
15.9 |
8.7 |
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Reserve money 6/ |
33.3 |
-1.6 |
16.1 |
26.8 |
18.9 |
24.5 |
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Broad money (M2) |
16.4 |
18.6 |
16.7 |
35.2 |
20.6 |
22.2 |
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Treasury bill rate, 3 month (average, in percent) |
11.4 |
11.8 |
19.7 |
18.1 |
14.9 |
21.3 |
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External sector |
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Exports of goods (in US$, percentage change) |
-14.6 |
-16.1 |
12.8 |
19.2 |
8.4 |
9.9 |
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Imports of goods (in US$, percentage change) |
2.3 |
-6.2 |
1.7 |
-0.1 |
7.4 |
4.3 |
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Merchandise trade balance |
-11.7 |
-11.6 |
-12.5 |
-14.6 |
-12.6 |
-13.7 |
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Current account |
-3.6 |
-6.0 |
-5.2 |
-5.8 |
-4.4 |
-4.6 |
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Capital and financial account (incl. errors and omissions) |
5.4 |
5.1 |
1.7 |
4.7 |
4.2 |
4.5 |
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Foreign direct investment (net, in billions of US$) |
6.6 |
6.8 |
9.4 |
8.8 |
10.4 |
9.4 |
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External debt 4/ |
14.5 |
16.8 |
22.9 |
31.6 |
26.9 |
28.7 |
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Gross international reserves (in billions of US$) |
19.5 |
17.1 |
22.0 |
31.0 |
29.0 |
30.2 |
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In months of next year's imports of goods and services |
3.5 |
3.1 |
3.7 |
5.4 |
4.7 |
5.1 |
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In percent of short-term external debt 5/ |
280.6 |
157.7 |
283.1 |
117.2 |
390.0 |
125.2 |
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Financing gap (in billions of US$) |
… |
0.0 |
16.3 |
0.0 |
9.4 |
1.9 |
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Memorandum items: |
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Nominal GDP (in billions of Egyptian pounds) |
2,443.9 |
2,708.3 |
3,434.1 |
3,496.0 |
4,084.7 |
4,464.6 |
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Nominal GDP (in billions of US$) |
332.5 |
332.3 |
… |
… |
… |
… |
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GDP per capita (in US$) |
3,736 |
3,684 |
… |
… |
… |
… |
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Unemployment rate (period average, percent) |
12.9 |
12.7 |
12.3 |
12.6 |
11.3 |
11.8 |
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Poverty rate (percent) |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
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Population (in millions) |
89.0 |
90.2 |
92.3 |
92.3 |
94.4 |
94.4 |
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Sources: Egyptian authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections. |
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1/ Fiscal year ends June 30. |
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2/ General government includes the budget sector, the National Investment Bank (NIB), and social insurance funds. |
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3/ Budget sector comprises central government, local governments, and some public corporations. |
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4/ Includes multilateral and bilateral public sector borrowing, private borrowing and prospective financing. |
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5/ Debt at remaining maturity and stock of foreign holding of T-bills. |
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6/ Reserve money as of end 2014/15 was affected by cancellation of deposit renewals at CBE due to unexpected announcement of national holiday on June 30, 2015. |
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