IMF Staff Completes Staff Visit to Guinea

IMF News, March 10, 2022

Source details

Staff Visit held from February 28 to March 4, 2022.
IMF staff team led by Ms. Clara Mira.
Meetings with: Prime Minister Mohamed Beavogui; Minister of Economy, Finance, and Planning Lanciné Conde; Central Bank Governor Karamo Kaba; Minister of Budget Moussa Cissé; Minister of Energy, Hydraulics and Hydrocarbons Ibrahima Abé Sylla; other senior officials; representatives from the private sector, civil society and the development partner community.
Press Release No. 22771.
IMF Communications Department media relations contact: Press Officer Meera Louis; Phone: +1 202 623-7100; Email: MEDIA@IMF.org; @IMFSpokesperson.

Economic activity expected to accelerate in 2022, driven by mining production and ongoing recovery in the non-mining sector.
Growth is expected to strengthen in 2022 and could be close to 5 ½ percent, supported by strong mining output and continuation of the recovery in the non-mining sector, reinforced by easing of Covid-related disruptions and expected settlement of government payment arrears.
Non-mining sector showing a gradual—moderately slower than previously projected—recovery.
High and sustained mining sector growth recorded.

Average prices increased by 12½ percent in 2021, owing to rising food and freight prices and loosened fiscal and monetary policies to support post-pandemic recovery.
Going forward, government repayment of central bank advances and the recent appreciation of the Guinean franc should offset some of the inflationary pressure stemming from rising international commodity prices.
Staff discussed the need for monetary policy to follow economic developments closely and actively manage liquidity if domestic price pressures intensify.

Risks remain tilted to the downside; uncertainty is pronounced.
The conflict in Ukraine poses a potential threat to Guinean mining production and investment.
Spillovers from the conflict may result in higher international fuel and food prices, which would negatively impact the Guinean economy, increase fiscal pressures and exacerbate the already high levels of poverty.
Domestically, prolonged political uncertainty might weigh on the outlook.

Discussions covered the need to strengthen domestic revenue mobilization, particularly in the mining sector.
Authorities’ commitment to repay arrears is expected to support a more vibrant private sector and help improve credit intermediation.
Authorities’ commitment to use the SDR allocation prudently and transparently is expected to support investments in infrastructure and social sectors.
Continuing to protect the most vulnerable against difficult conditions is essential.

International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff statement (End-of-Mission press release).