Zambia: IMF Executive Board Completes Third Review Under the Extended Credit Facility and Approves Augmentation of the Arrangement
IMF News, June 26, 2024
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- Published: June 26, 2024
Program approval and augmentation
- The Executive Board completed the third review of Zambia’s 38-month Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement.
- Approved augmentation of SDR 293.46 million (about US$385.7 million).
- Completion of the review allows for an immediate disbursement of SDR 433.34 million (about US$569.6 million).
- Total disbursement so far under the ECF-supported program: SDR 852.98 million (about US$1.1 billion).
- Original ECF Arrangement approved on August 31, 2022, for SDR 978.2 million (100 percent of quota, or about US$1.3 billion).
- Augmentation increases access to SDR 1271.66 million (130 percent of quota, about US$1.7 billion).
Program performance and structural reforms
- Program performance described as satisfactory.
- All quantitative performance criteria for the third review were met.
- All but one structural conditionality were completed.
- All continuous and end-December 2023 structural benchmarks were completed on time.
- All but one end-March 2024 structural benchmark were completed on time.
- Authorities committed to advancing structural and governance reforms to promote inclusive growth and improve livelihoods.
Macroeconomic outlook and drought impact
- Zambia is grappling with a severe drought that has significantly impacted agriculture and electricity generation, affecting a substantial share of the population.
- Growth projection for 2024 revised down to 2.3 percent, from 4.7 percent.
- The 2024 budget has been revised to accommodate the drought’s impact.
- Authorities remain committed to:
- supporting macroeconomic stability,
- restoring fiscal and debt sustainability,
- clearing arrears,
- addressing humanitarian needs related to the drought.
Debt restructuring and creditor engagement
- Implementing the October 2023 Memorandum of Understanding with the Official Creditor Committee (OCC) through bilateral agreements is underway.
- Restructuring agreement with Eurobond holders reached on March 25, 2024, in line with IMF program parameters; OCC confirmed comparability of treatment among creditors.
- Consent solicitation launched on May 13; bond exchange settled on June 11, 2024.
- Zambia continues to engage with other commercial private creditors, aiming for an agreement by year-end.
Key policy recommendations and priorities (from Ms. Antoinette Sayeh)
- Continue coordinated macroeconomic policies to address drought impact, preserve macroeconomic stability, and bolster growth.
- Adhere to committed fiscal consolidation over the program period to ensure fiscal sustainability.
- Given significant spending reprioritization in 2024, focus on revenue mobilization, including:
- enhancing tax administration,
- broadening the tax base.
- Implement public financial management reforms to enhance spending controls, budget execution, and fiscal accountability.
- Make greater progress in budgetary arrears clearance.
- Complete debt treatment with remaining private creditors on comparable terms and in line with program parameters to make debt sustainable on a forward-looking basis.
- Maintain a tight monetary stance until inflation declines toward the Bank of Zambia’s target range to help anchor inflation expectations.
- Prioritize reserve accumulation and sustained exchange rate flexibility to address external shocks.
- Advance financial sector reforms to foster financial stability and inclusion.
- Strengthen governance and structural reforms to promote private sector activity and economic diversification, including:
- Implementing the Access-to-Information Act,
- Reviewing the Anti-Corruption Act in a timely manner,
- Enhancing transparency and governance in the energy and mining sectors.
- Support climate adaptation and climate-resilient energy sources; drafting of the Climate Change Bill is welcome.
Selected economic indicators, 2022–26 (as published)
- Population (millions, 2022): 20.0
- Per capita GDP ($, 2022): 1,455
- Quota (SDR millions): 978.2
- Poverty rate (2022): 60
- Main products and exports: Copper
- Key export markets: China
- Real GDP growth (%):
- 2021: 6.2
- 2022: 5.2
- 2023 Est.: 5.4
- 2024 Proj.: 2.3
- 2025 Proj.: 6.6
- 2026 Proj.: 5.9
- Inflation annual average (%):
- 2021: 22.0
- 2022: 11.0
- 2023 Est.: 10.9
- 2024 Proj.: 14.6
- 2025 Proj.: 12.1
- 2026 Proj.: 7.0
- Inflation end-of-year (%):
- 2021: 16.4
- 2022: 9.9
- 2023 Est.: 13.1
- 2024 Proj.: 15.0
- 2025 Proj.: 7.9
- Central government finances (% GDP):
- Revenue:
- 2021: 22.4
- 2022: 20.4
- 2023 Est.: 21.5
- 2024 Proj.: 21.4
- 2025 Proj.: 21.8
- Expenditure:
- 2021: 30.5
- 2022: 28.2
- 2023 Est.: 27.9
- 2024 Proj.: 27.5
- 2025 Proj.: 24.6
- 2026 Proj.: 25.1
- Fiscal balance (cash basis, % GDP):
- 2021: -8.1
- 2022: -7.8
- 2023 Est.: -6.5
- 2024 Proj.: -6.1
- 2025 Proj.: -2.8
- 2026 Proj.: -3.4
- Fiscal balance (commitment basis, % GDP):
- 2021: -13.9
- 2022: -5.4
- 2023 Est.: -5.6
- 2024 Proj.: -2.5
- 2025 Proj.: -1.6
- 2026 Proj.: -2.3
- Public debt (% GDP):
- 2021: 112.1
- 2022: 110.9
- 2023 Est.: 133.4
- 2024 Proj.: 107.5
- 2025 Proj.: 88.5
- 2026 Proj.: 79.2
- Money and Credit:
- Broad money (% change):
- 2021: 3.7
- 2022: 24.5
- 2023 Est.: 10.5
- 2024 Proj.: 13.2
- 2025 Proj.: 10.4
- Credit to private sector (% change):
- 2021: 34.2
- 2022: 41.3
- 2023 Est.: 23.6
- 2024 Proj.: 29.0
- 2025 Proj.: 15.6
- 3-month Treasury bill interest rate (%):
- 2021: 12.8
- 2022: 9.6
- Balance of payments:
- Current account (% GDP):
- 2021: 11.9
- 2022: 3.8
- 2023 Est.: -1.9
- 2024 Proj.: -0.2
- 2025 Proj.: 6.9
- 2026 Proj.: 5.7
- FDI (% GDP):
- 2021: 3.1
- 2022: 0.6
- 2023 Est.: -0.1
- 2024 Proj.: 4.5
- Reserves (in months of imports):
- 2021: 3.3
- 2022: 3.4
- 2023 Est.: 3.6
- 2024 Proj.: 4.3
- 2025 Proj.: 5.0
- Exchange rate:
- REER (% change):
- 2021: 30.3
- 2022: -7.3
IMF Press Release No. 24/242, June 26, 2024.