IMF Staff Completes 2024 Article IV Consultation Mission to Chad

IMF News, October 15, 2024

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An IMF team, led by Mr. Édouard Martin, Mission Chief for Chad, visited N’Djamena from October 3–15, 2024 to hold discussions on the 2024 Article IV consultation.
Mr. Vitaliy Kramarenko, Deputy Director of the IMF African department, joined the mission for policy discussions.
The Article IV discussions will continue in the coming days.

Growth:
- Chad’s economic activity grew by 4.9 percent in 2023.
- Growth is expected to moderate in 2024, reflecting a slight decline in oil production and the impact of floods.
- Growth is projected to increase to 3.4 percent in 2025 owing to better agricultural crops and livestock activity despite a further decline in oil production.
Inflation:
- Year-over-year inflation declined in 2023 (to 4.2 percent from 8.3 percent at end-2022) owing to a slowdown in food prices.
- Inflation went back up to 8.7 percent at end-August 2024, reflecting a rebalancing in domestic fuel prices and a rebound in food prices during a particularly difficult lean season.
- Inflation is expected to increase to 8.8 percent year-over-year at end-2024 before gradually declining over the medium term.
Risks to the outlook:
- Possible intensification of regional conflicts.
- Large fluctuations in oil prices.
- An increase in climate-change related events, such as the recent floods.

Fiscal balances:
- The overall fiscal balance deteriorated substantially in 2023—to -2.7 percent of non-oil GDP from +4.9 percent in 2022.
- Despite a further decline in oil revenue, the overall fiscal balance would somewhat recover in 2024.
Revenue and spending drivers:
- Non-oil revenue increased steadily in 2023 as a result of tax administration reforms.
- Non-oil revenue is expected to increase significantly in 2024, reflecting further tax administration reforms, the increase in domestic fuel prices, and the renewal of telecommunications licenses.
- Current expenditures remained elevated in 2023, reflecting in part spending pressures related to the arrival of refugees from Sudan and the large use of emergency spending procedures (Dépenses avant ordonnancement, DAOs).
- Current spending would decline in 2024, reflecting the phasing out of one-off spending related to the political transition and the election and the progress in reducing the use of emergency spending procedures.

Capitalization and asset quality:
- The banking sector remains undercapitalized.
- At end-December 2023, the sector’s capital adequacy ratio was below the regulatory minimum.
- Non-performing loans amounted to 31.5 percent of total loans at end-December 2023.
Policy action:
- The mission emphasized the need to promptly finalize and start implementing restructuring plans for the two systemic public banks.

Revenue mobilization and expenditure control:
- Improve domestic non-oil revenue mobilization, including through digitalization.
- Contain current expenditure, including the wage bill and transfers to the energy sector.
Public financial management and investment efficiency:
- Ensure that budget allocations for social spending (e.g., health, education, women, and environment) are actually spent.
- Reform public procurement to increase the efficiency of public investment.
Development strategy and financing:
- Mobilize concessional financing and grants to finance investment in key areas.
- Promote the development of the private sector and the diversification of the economy.
Structural resilience and governance:
- Increase resilience against climate change.
- Improve the business climate.
- Strengthen governance.
- Reduce gender disparities.

The mission discussed the authorities’ National Development Plan for the next five years and the key medium-term macroeconomic challenges Chad faces.
The mission met with:
- Mr. Mahamat Idriss Déby Into, President of the Republic of Chad;
- Mr. Tahir Hamid Nguilin, Minister of State for Finance, Budget, Economy and Planning;
- Ms. Ndolenodji Alixe Naïmbaye, Minister of Hydrocarbons, Mines, and Geology;
- Mr. Patalet Kanabe Marcelin, Minister of Water and Energy];
- Mr. Idriss Ahmat Idriss, National Director of the regional central bank (BEAC);
- other senior officials, as well as representatives of the private sector, civil society and international development partners.
The IMF team thanked the Chadian authorities and other counterparts for their hospitality, excellent cooperation, and candid and constructive discussions.

IMF Staff statement at the conclusion of the 2024 Article IV consultation mission to Chad (October 3–15, 2024).