IMF Executive Board Completes the Third Reviews of the EFF/ECF Arrangements and the Second Review of the RSF Arrangement and Concludes 2024 Article IV Consultation with Côte d’Ivoire

IMF News, December 12, 2024

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IMF Executive Board Completes the Third Reviews of the EFF/ECF Arrangements and the Second Review of the RSF Arrangement and Concludes 2024 Article IV Consultation with Côte d’Ivoire

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Bibliographic details

• Published: December 12, 2024

Program completion, access, and disbursement

• Executive Board completed:
  • Third Reviews of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangements.
  • Second Review of the Resilience and Sustainability Facility Arrangement (RSF).
  • 2024 Article IV consultation with Côte d’Ivoire.
• Combined access under the 40-month EFF/ECF arrangements: SDR 2,601.6 million (or 400 percent of quota).
• Access under the RSF: SDR 975.6 million (or 150 percent of quota).
• Program implementation: all performance criteria, structural benchmarks and reform measures scheduled for the reviews met or implemented.
• Immediate disbursement upon completion of reviews: about US$ 808.5 million.

Macroeconomic outlook and recent performance

• Growth and activity:
  • Real GDP Growth: 2022: 6.2; 2023: 6.1; 2024 (Proj.): 6.3.
  • Economy described as resilient with strong consumption and investment demand in 2024 despite weaker agricultural production and construction activity.
  • Near- to medium-term growth drivers: recovery of agricultural production; stronger extractive industries activity as the Baleine oil field fully comes onstream; growth in energy production from ongoing investment upgrades.
• Inflation:
  • Headline annual average CPI inflation: 2023: 4.4 percent (yoy); projected to fall to 3.8 percent (yoy) by end-2024.
  • Table shows inflation (annual average, %): 2022: 5.2; 2023: 4.4; 2024 (Proj.): 4.0; 2025 (Proj.): 3.0; 2026 (Proj.): 2.2.
• Financial sector: described as sound.
• Climate finance: commitments announced during the November COP 29 expected to help catalyze climate financing in Côte d’Ivoire.

Fiscal and external developments

• Fiscal consolidation and debt:
  • Fiscal deficit: 2022: -6.8 percent of GDP; 2023: -5.2 percent of GDP.
  • Projection: fiscal deficit of -4.0 percent of GDP in 2024 and -3.0 percent of GDP in 2025.
  • Revenues (% GDP): 2022: 14.7; 2023: 15.6; 2024 (Proj.): 16.3; 2025 (Proj.): 17.3; 2026 (Proj.): 17.8.
  • Expenditure (% GDP): 2022: 22.1; 2023: 21.5; 2024 (Proj.): 20.8; 2025 (Proj.): 21.2.
  • Public debt (% GDP): 2022: 56.6; 2023: 58.1; 2024 (Proj.): 59.3; 2025 (Proj.): 56.0; 2026 (Proj.): 54.3.
  • Risk of debt distress: confirmed as moderate; debt outlook improved mainly due to improved liquidity ratios and proactive debt management operations.
• External sector:
  • Current account (% GDP): 2022: -7.7; 2023: -7.9; 2024 (Proj.): -5.1; 2025 (Proj.): -1.7; 2026 (Proj.): -2.4.
  • Improvement in 2024 expected on the back of significant terms-of-trade gains, record-high cocoa prices, and increased production prospects supporting export revenue.
  • Net FDI Inflows (% GDP): 2022: 2.0; 2023: 1.7; 2024 (Proj.): 3.8.
  • External public debt (% GDP): 2022: 34.5; 2023: 35.9; 2024 (Proj.): 36.2; 2025 (Proj.): 35.5.
  • REER (% change, depreciation –): 2022: -4.9; 2023: 4.2.

Structural challenges and policy priorities

• Identified structural impediments:
  • High and persistent informality (noted as focus of the 2024 Article IV consultation discussions).
  • Gaps in gender equality.
• Policy priorities and recommendations highlighted by Acting Chair (Mr. Okamura):
  • Fiscal policy:
  • Fiscal consolidation envisaged in the 2025 budget to be underpinned by high-quality and permanent tax policy measures, and tax and customs administration reforms.
  • Aim to reach the WAEMU deficit target of 3 percent of GDP in 2025.
  • Sustain domestic revenue mobilization over the medium term to generate fiscal space for economic transformation toward upper middle-income status.
  • Implementation of the MTRS will require significant engagement with stakeholders; focus on streamlining or eliminating VAT tax exemptions and other tax expenditures.
  • Enhance the coverage, transparency, and management of public finances, especially to cover state owned enterprises.
  • Debt management:
  • Active debt management to further reduce debt sustainability risks.
  • Structural and governance reforms:
  • Sustain structural reform momentum and continuous improvements in safeguarding financial integrity and governance to unlock private sector potential.
  • Address identified AML/CFT framework deficiencies and demonstrate an implementation track-record on AML/CFT reforms.
  • Tackle and reduce informality to support investments in human capital development, especially amongst youth and women, to make growth more inclusive.
  • Climate resilience:
  • Pursue efforts to strengthen resilience to climate risks for sustainable transformation.

Executive Board Assessment — Key statistics and social indicators

• Population (2021): 29 million
• Gini Index (2018): 37.3
• Per capita GDP (2021): 2,445 USD
• Life Expectancy (2020): 60
• Share of population below the poverty line (2021): 36.3%
• Selected indicators (2022–26) — values drawn from Table 1:
  • Real GDP Growth (%): 2022: 6.2; 2023: 6.1; 2024 (Proj.): 6.3.
  • Inflation (annual average, %): 2022: 5.2; 2023: 4.4; 2024 (Proj.): 4.0; 2025 (Proj.): 3.0; 2026 (Proj.): 2.2.
  • Revenues (% GDP): 2022: 14.7; 2023: 15.6; 2024 (Proj.): 16.3; 2025 (Proj.): 17.3; 2026 (Proj.): 17.8.
  • Expenditure (% GDP): 2022: 22.1; 2023: 21.5; 2024 (Proj.): 20.8; 2025 (Proj.): 21.2.
  • Fiscal balance (% GDP): 2022: -6.8; 2023: -5.2; 2024 (Proj.): -4.0; 2025 (Proj.): -3.0.
  • Public debt (% GDP): 2022: 56.6; 2023: 58.1; 2024 (Proj.): 59.3; 2025 (Proj.): 56.0; 2026 (Proj.): 54.3.
  • Broad money (% change): 2022: 9.0; 2023: 3.3.
  • Credit to private sector (% change): 2022: 7.3; 2023: 16.2.
  • Current account (% GDP): 2022: -7.7; 2023: -7.9; 2024 (Proj.): -5.1; 2025 (Proj.): -1.7; 2026 (Proj.): -2.4.
  • Net FDI Inflows (% GDP): 2022: 2.0; 2023: 1.7; 2024 (Proj.): 3.8.
  • External public debt (% GDP): 2022: 34.5; 2023: 35.9; 2024 (Proj.): 36.2; 2025 (Proj.): 35.5.
  • REER (% change, depreciation –): 2022: -4.9; 2023: 4.2.
• Sources for table data: Ivorian authorities, World Bank, and IMF staff estimates.

Press Release No. 24/464 — IMF Communications Department, December 11, 2024

References

• Côte d'Ivoire and the IMF
• IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet
• Press Releases
• PRESS CENTER
• Extended Fund Facility
• Extended Credit Facility
• Resilience and Sustainability Facility
• Government of Côte d'Ivoire Collaborates with International Financial Institutions, Development Partners, and the Private Sector to Catalyze Climate Finance
• http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm
• https://www.imf.org/en/home