IMF Press Briefing Transcript - Julie Kozack

IMF News, February 6, 2025

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Bibliographic details

• Published: February 6, 2025

Logistics, schedule, and embargo

• Date of briefing: February 6, 2025
• Embargo: briefing embargoed until 11:00 a.m. U.S. Eastern Time
• Key travel and event schedule announced:
  • Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva visits Ethiopia on February 8th and 9th.
  • Managing Director participates in the Arab Fiscal Forum on February 10th (United Arab Emirates) and delivers keynote remarks at the World Government Summit on February 11th.
  • Managing Director participates in a two-day conference in Saudi Arabia on building resilience of emerging market economies on February 16th and 17th (co-organized by the IMF and the Saudi Finance Ministry).
  • First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath joins the Article IV mission to Japan and holds a press conference on February 7th at 10:30 a.m. Tokyo time.
  • Deputy Managing Director Okamura participates in an IMF-JICA conference on Economic and Fiscal Policy Challenges and Prospects for Asia on February 12 and 13.

Ukraine — program status and upcoming Seventh Review

• Recent Executive Board action and program totals:
  • Sixth Review approved on December 20th enabled a disbursement of $1.1 billion.
  • Total disbursements under the program to date: $9.8 billion.
  • Total size of the program: $15.6 billion.
  • Based on the approved calendar of disbursements and subject to completion of the next review and Board approval, Ukraine would have access to about $900 million for the next review.
• Staff priorities for the upcoming review mission:
  • Fiscal policy, including progress on revenue mobilization.
  • Monetary policies for 2025.
  • Progress in ensuring debt sustainability and fiscal sustainability are restored.
  • Governance reforms as a key pillar of the program.
• Pension reform in Ukraine:
  • Ukrainian government committed to launch pension reforms in 2025, spearheaded by the Ministry of Social Policy.
  • Authorities are developing a comprehensive set of proposals; details of the proposals are not yet specified.
• USAID-related uncertainty:
  • IMF is closely following announcements and developments regarding USAID; too early to gauge precise impacts on countries receiving USAID support.

Egypt — Fourth Review and RSF discussions

• Recent staff-level agreement and Board process:
  • IMF staff and Egyptian authorities reached staff-level agreement on the Fourth Review of the EFF on December 24.
  • Preparations for Board consideration are underway; the Board meeting is expected to take place in the coming weeks.
  • Subject to Executive Board approval, Egypt would have access to about $1.2 billion.
• Program recalibration and reform priorities agreed in December:
  • Fiscal consolidation path recalibrated to create fiscal space for critical social programs benefiting vulnerable groups and the middle class while ensuring debt sustainability.
  • Reform priorities include lowering inflation, sustaining exchange rate flexibility and liberalized access to foreign exchange, boosting domestic revenues, improving the business environment, accelerating divestment and leveling the playing field between state-owned enterprises and the private sector, and enhancing governance and transparency.
• RSF (Resilience and Sustainability Facility) status:
  • A policy package of reforms to be considered by the Executive Board along with the Fourth Review; discussions on an RSF are underway.
  • IMF could not confirm a precise RSF amount at the briefing.

Caribbean region — growth and inflation outlook

• Regional growth estimates and projection (excluding Guyana and Haiti):
  • Average GDP growth estimated at 2.2 percent for 2023.
  • Average GDP growth estimated at 2.4 percent for 2024.
  • Projected growth for 2025: 2.4 percent.
• Drivers and dynamics:
  • Two groups of countries: tourism-dependent economies (growth slowed as tourism arrivals returned to pre-Pandemic levels) and commodity-exporting countries (faced energy sector challenges but benefited from robust non-energy sector performance driven by supportive economic policies).
  • Inflation in most Caribbean countries has moderated significantly due to lower global commodity prices and easing of supply chain disruptions; inflation expected to remain moderate.

Argentina — negotiations on a new program

• Engagement status:
  • Fund staff recently visited Buenos Aires to advance discussions on a new program; discussions are constructive and ongoing.
  • New program aims to build on gains in reducing inflation, stabilizing the economy, returning to growth, and declining poverty while addressing remaining challenges.
• Policy focus emphasized by Fund staff and authorities:
  • Continue a consistent set of fiscal, monetary, and foreign exchange policies.
  • Pursue growth-enhancing reforms.
• Specifics not yet determined:
  • Details on a Letter of Intent, program size, and timing remain subject to continuing negotiations and will be communicated when available.

Egypt, Syria, DRC, Rwanda, El Salvador, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Lebanon — engagement snapshots

• Syria:
  • No meaningful IMF engagement since 2009 Article IV Consultation due to security conditions; IMF stands ready to support reconstruction when conditions allow.
• DRC and Rwanda:
  • Monitoring Eastern DRC conflict and humanitarian impact; closely monitoring potential program impacts.
  • Rwanda: Executive Board concluded the Fourth Review of Rwanda's programs in December 2024.
• El Salvador:
  • Staff-level agreement reached on December 18 for a new EFF arrangement of about $1.4 billion, subject to Executive Board approval.
  • Program aims to reduce potential risks of the bitcoin project; once in place, purchases of bitcoin will be confined under the program as agreed.
• Mozambique:
  • Article IV Consultation and the Fourth Review of the ECF completed in July 2024.
  • IMF team to visit Maputo in the coming weeks to engage with the new government; IMF remains engaged to support macroeconomic stability and inclusive growth.
• Zimbabwe:
  • No update provided during the briefing; IMF to follow up bilaterally.
• Lebanon:
  • IMF welcomes presidential election and looks forward to working with the new government; normalization and ceasefire are critical to support policy actions and reforms.

Sri Lanka — Third Review and financing access

• Staff-level agreement:
  • IMF staff and Sri Lankan authorities reached a staff-level agreement on the Third Review of Sri Lanka's EFF on November 23.
  • Subject to Executive Board approval, Sri Lanka will have access to about $333 million.
• Recent macroeconomic developments and program indicators:
  • Economy expanded by 5.5 percent in the fourth -- third quarter of 2024.
  • Average headline and core inflation remained contained well below the target during the fourth quarter of 2024.
  • International reserves increased to $6.1 billion at the end of 2024.
• Conditionality note:
  • Board approval and disbursements are contingent on implementation of prior actions, including submission of a 2025 budget consistent with program parameters.

Trade uncertainty, tariffs, and global outlook

• IMF monitoring and assessment approach:
  • IMF is following U.S. tariff announcements on Chinese goods and potential tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and related countermeasures.
  • Full impact assessment depends on responses by affected countries, firms and consumer reactions, and how measures evolve over time.
  • IMF considers it in all parties’ interest to find a constructive way forward.
• Uncertainty and analysis:
  • IMF will incorporate uncertainty, market reactions, and policy evolution into assessments as situations evolve; refer to the WEO for detailed analysis.

Institutional role and broader context

• Mandate and approach:
  • IMF reiterates its mandate to support economic and financial stability globally and to serve its membership.
  • The IMF emphasizes continued, institution-focused engagement and collaboration with major shareholders, including the United States.

IMF Press Briefing Transcript - Julie Kozack, February 6, 2025.

References

• Arab Republic of Egypt and the IMF
• Argentina and the IMF
• El Salvador and the IMF
• Lebanon and the IMF
• Rwanda and the IMF
• Saudi Arabia and the IMF
• Sri Lanka and the IMF
• Syrian Arab Republic and the IMF
• The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia and the IMF
• United Arab Emirates and the IMF
• United States and the IMF
• IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet
• Transcripts
• PRESS CENTER
• https://www.imf.org/en/home