IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Antigua and Barbuda
IMF News, March 17, 2025
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- Published: March 17, 2025
Consultation outcome and context
- On March 13, 2025, the Executive Board concluded the Article IV consultation with Antigua and Barbuda and endorsed the staff appraisal without a meeting on a lapse-of-time basis.
- The authorities have requested additional time to consider the publication of the Staff Report prepared for this consultation; a final decision is expected not later than 28 days from the Board consideration date.
- Press Release No. 25/067.
Economic performance and outlook
- Real output in 2024 is estimated to have surpassed pre-pandemic levels, with growth estimated at 4.3 percent, driven by strong tourism and one-off events (including the 4th International Conference on Small Island Developing States and the T20 Cricket World Cup).
- Staff projects growth to moderate from 3 percent in 2025 to 2½ percent over the medium term.
- Inflation: elevated in 2024 due in part to specific items (notably communication) and increases in indirect taxes; underlying price pressures expected to dissipate.
- Credit growth is recovering, with nonperforming loans contained.
Fiscal position, debt, and financing
- Public debt fell from around 100 percent of GDP in 2020 to 67 percent in 2024, reflecting the recovery in nominal GDP and improved fiscal balances.
- Gross financing needs are projected to remain around 10 percent of GDP in the medium term.
- Substantial domestic and external arrears exist; domestic arrears are uncertain in size and constrain financing options.
- Central government primary balance improved to 4.6 percent in 2024 (noted in prose); Table projections for primary balance: -3.7 (2020), -2.3 (2021), -0.3 (2022), 0.5 (2023), 0.7 (2024), 0.8 (2025), 0.9 (2026), 1.0 (2027).
- Fiscal drivers in 2024: indirect tax increases, broader economic recovery, and one-off factors (e.g., nearly 2 percent of GDP from an asset forfeiture and unusually low capital spending).
- The 2025 Budget envisages stronger tax revenues and higher capital spending.
- Recommendations to restore debt sustainability and reduce gross financing needs:
- Address outstanding external and domestic arrears, including to domestic suppliers and to the Paris Club.
- Bolster government revenues and improve public financial management.
- Reestablish SOE unit in the Ministry of Finance to enhance SOE oversight.
External sector and financial stability
- ECCB preliminary estimates: current account deficit narrowed to 7 percent of GDP in 2024, reflecting a higher service trade balance—mainly tourism receipts—and a smaller goods deficit due to a contraction in imports.
- FDI inflows remained resilient and supported ongoing hotel construction.
- External public sector debt (percent of GDP): 47.5 (2020), 45.5 (2021), 39.4 (2022), 36.0 (2023), 30.9 (2024), 31.1 (2025), 34.5 (2026), 37.3 (2027), 39.7 (2028), 39.0 (2029).
- Net imputed international reserves (US$ million): 222 (2020), 324 (2021), 346 (2022), 319 (2023), 322 (2024), 375 (2025), 443 (2026), 491 (2027), 517 (2028), 524 (2029).
- Staff assesses the external position in 2024 as moderately weaker than the level implied by medium term fundamentals and desirable policies.
- Financial sector broadly stable; launch of regional credit bureau, ECCB-led climate risk initiatives, and regional partial credit guarantee scheme expected to boost credit quality and financial intermediation.
- Recommendations to reinforce financial stability and inclusion:
- Regional coordination on supervision and climate risk.
- More risk-based supervisory framework for credit unions; enhanced monitoring of asset quality and credit forbearance measures.
- Inclusion of the ECCB in the National Oversight Committee on Financial Action to improve coordination.
- Increase in investment thresholds for the Citizenship by Investment Program and improved due diligence to safeguard program integrity.
Structural reforms and revenue mobilization
- Tax revenue remains below authorities’ fiscal resilience guideline targets and low by peer standards; 2024 Budget measures have begun to close the gap.
- Near-term revenue mobilization priorities (to avoid personal income tax or higher ABST rates):
- Tighter control of tax exemptions.
- Transition to HS2022 classification in customs.
- Modernize the framework for property taxation.
- Introduce a large taxpayer unit and modernized IT systems.
- Implement single window system at customs and operationalize e-filing, e-payment, and e-registration of taxes.
- Social protection: framework is fragmented; staff recommends streamlining social programs, better targeting assistance to the most vulnerable, and developing a centralized information system or unified database to track beneficiaries and avoid duplications.
- Business environment and productivity:
- Scope for large aggregate productivity gains from reallocation of resources between firms.
- Address obstacles in workforce education, access to finance, customs and trade regulations.
- Targeted efforts: increase educational opportunities, employer‑employee matching at the One Stop Employment Centre, complete the Skills Demand Survey, offer courses to increase financial literacy among MSMEs, and implement the single electronic window at customs.
Risks and potential upside
- Risks tilted to the downside: elevated global uncertainty; deepening geoeconomic fragmentation; commodity price volatility; climate-related vulnerabilities; capacity constraints in the construction sector.
- Upside risks: stronger demand for tourism; improved air connectivity; new cruise port facilities; hosting of special events; intensification of productivity-enhancing structural reforms.
Selected indicators (extracts from Table 1)
- Population (2023): 102,195
- GDP per capita (US$, 2023): 19,627
- Mean years of schooling (2022): 10.5
- Life expectancy at birth (years, 2022): 79.2
- Human Development Index rank: 54
- Mortality rate (under 5, per 1,000 live births, 2022): 10 (2022, of 193 economies)
- Real GDP growth (percent): -18.9 (2020), 8.2 (2021), 9.1 (2022), 2.4 (2023), 4.3 (2024), 3.0 (2025), 2.5 (2026), 2.5 (2027) [table shows through 2027 for real GDP]
- Nominal GDP growth (percent): -18.2 (2020), 13.5 (2021), 16.5 (2022), 7.5 (2023), 10.9 (2024), 6.7 (2025), 5.0 (2026), 4.6 (2027), 4.5 (2028), 4.5 (2029)
- Consumer prices (end of period): 2.8 (2020), 1.2 (2021), 9.2 (2022), 3.3 (2023), 6.0 (2024), 2.0 (2025)
- Broad money (M2) growth (percent): -8.7 (2020), 13.9 (2021), 2.1 (2022), 9.5 (2023)
- Credit to private sector (percent): 4.8 (2020), -4.1 (2021), -2.1 (2022), 7.0 (2023), 10.2 (2024), 5.5 (2025)
- Total revenue and grants (percent of GDP): 19.8 (2020), 18.9 (2021), 17.9 (2022), 17.1 (2023), 21.4 (2024), 19.9 (2025), 20.1 (2026), 20.2 (2027), 20.0 (2028)
- Total expenditure (percent of GDP): 26.0 (2020), 23.4 (2021), 20.7 (2022), 18.8 (2023), 21.2 (2024), 21.1 (2025), 20.9 (2026), 20.5 (2027)
- Current account balance (percent of GDP): -15.6 (2020), -17.8 (2021), -13.5 (2022), -7.0 (2023), -10.5 (2024), -10.2 (2025), -10.1 (2026), -9.8 (2027), -9.5 (2028), -9.5 (2029)
- Nonfactor service balance (percent of GDP): 17.3 (2020), 19.5 (2021), 28.2 (2022), 28.4 (2023), 30.4 (2024), 28.8 (2025)
- Of which: Gross tourism receipts (percent of GDP): 29.2 (2020), 30.5 (2021), 44.4 (2022), 45.4 (2023), 46.8 (2024), 46.7 (2025)
- GDP at market prices (EC$ million): 3,811 (2020), 4,326 (2021), 5,040 (2022), 5,416 (2023), 6,007 (2024), 6,408 (2025), 6,731 (2026), 7,037 (2027), 7,353 (2028), 7,684 (2029)
- Public debt stock (percent of GDP): 100.5 (2020), 93.0 (2021), 82.0 (2022), 76.3 (2023), 67.1 (2024), 63.4 (2025), 62.7 (2026), 61.2 (2027), 59.9 (2028)
Source: IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Antigua and Barbuda (March 17, 2025).
