IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation, Third Review under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility with Morocco

IMF News, April 8, 2025

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Published: April 8, 2025

Executive summary and financing

The Executive Board concluded the 2025 Article IV consultation and completed the Third Review under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) arrangement (approved in September 2023).
Completion of the Third Review allows the authorities to draw SDR 375 million (about US$ 496 million).
Total disbursement under the RSF arrangement now stands at SDR 937.5 million (about US$ 1.24 billion).
Press Release No. 25/094; conclusion date of Executive Board discussion: March 17.

Growth, inflation, and external sector

2024 real GDP growth: 3.2 percent (estimated), down from 3.4 percent in 2023.
Growth outlook: GDP growth expected to accelerate to about 3.7 percent over the next few years.
2024 drivers: Robust domestic demand helped offset weak agricultural output amid drought.
Unemployment: about 13 percent in 2024; elevated mainly due to job losses in the agricultural sector.
Inflation:
- Inflation (period average) in 2024: 0.9
- Inflation (end of period) in 2024: 2.1
- Bank Al-Maghrib lowered the policy rate twice in June and December 2024.
Current account: widened somewhat in 2024.
Exchange rate: the dirham continued to move within the fluctuation band of ±5 percent.

Fiscal developments and public debt

2024 central government overall deficit: 4.1 percent of GDP, about 0.2 percent of GDP less than projected in the 2024 Budget.
Revenue (central government, percent of GDP):
- 2020: 27.0
- 2021: 25.1
- 2022: 28.4
- 2023: 27.9
- 2024: 30.1
- 2025 (proj.): 30.4
- 2026 (proj.): 29.4
- 2027 (proj.): 28.1
Expenditure (central government, percent of GDP):
- 2020: 34.1
- 2021: 31.0
- 2022: 33.8
- 2023: 32.3
- 2024: 34.2
- 2025 (proj.): 34.3
- 2026 (proj.): 32.8
- 2027 (proj.): 31.4
Fiscal balance (central government, percent of GDP):
- 2020: -7.1
- 2021: -5.9
- 2022: -5.4
- 2023: -4.5
- 2024: -4.1
- 2025 (proj.): -3.9
- 2026 (proj.): -3.4
- 2027 (proj.): -3.3
Public debt (percent of GDP):
- 2020: 72.2
- 2021: 69.4
- 2022: 71.5
- 2023: 69.5
- 2024: 70.0
- 2025 (proj.): 68.9
- 2026 (proj.): 67.7
- 2027 (proj.): 66.8
- 2028 (proj.): 66.2
- 2029 (proj.): 65.6
- 2030 (proj.): 65.1
Authorities are reforming the Organic Budget Law to introduce a new fiscal rule based on a medium-term debt anchor.
Directors encouraged saving at least part of the revenue windfall and implementing additional structural measures to increase revenue and rationalize spending.

Monetary policy and financial sector

Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM) lowered the policy rate twice in June and December 2024.
Directors supported BAM’s monetary policy stance and advised a cautious data-dependent approach.
Transition: Directors broadly concurred that the central bank should resume its planned transition to an inflation targeting framework and carefully remove the peg as conditions allow.
Financial sector risks noted: rising risks from NPLs and bank concentration.
Recommendations: introduction of a secondary market for NPLs; welcomed authorities’ request for an FSAP update.
Progress: Morocco progressing to align financial supervisory and regulatory framework with international standards.

Structural reforms and RSF-related measures

Structural agenda implementation continued: restructuring of SOEs, operationalization of the Mohammed VI Investment Fund, and implementation of the new Charter of Investment.
RSF third and final review measures implemented 6 of the 7 scheduled measures.
RSF measures aim to:
- Better protect underground water resources.
- Prepare the ground for a change in tariffication of water.
- Improve the regulatory setting of the electricity market to encourage private sector production of renewable energy.
- Reinforce fiscal and financial systems’ resilience to climate change-related risks.
Carbon tax: gradual introduction was not implemented; authorities need further analysis and deeper consultations.

Executive Board assessment and policy recommendations

Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal and welcomed Morocco’s resilience supported by strong policies and frameworks.
Policy guidance and priorities highlighted by Directors:
- Continue prudent macroeconomic policies and implement structural reforms to support activity amid uncertainty.
- Save part of revenue windfalls and rationalize spending to rebuild fiscal buffers.
- Report budgetary implications and risks from Investment Charter and public private partnerships in the Medium-Term Fiscal Framework.
- Introduce the planned medium-term debt anchored fiscal rule.
- Further improve the business environment and market competition, including reforming state owned enterprises and reducing their presence outside strategic sectors.
- Continue the fight against corruption.
- Advance the regulatory framework for renewable energy production and improve grid capacity to secure private sector participation.
It is expected the next Article IV consultation will be held on the standard 12-month cycle.

Selected economic indicators and memoranda (highlights)

Population: 36.8 million; 2024
Per capita GDP: $3,817; 2023
Quota: SDR 894.4 million
Poverty rate: 4.8 percent; 2013
Main exports: automobiles, phosphate and derivatives; 2023
Key export markets: France and Spain (42% of total trade); 2023
Selected time-series datapoints:
- Real GDP growth:
- 2020: -7.2
- 2021: 8.2
- 2022: 1.5
- 2023: 3.4
- 2024: 3.2
- 2025 (proj.): 3.9
- 2026 (proj.): 3.7
- 2027 (proj.): 3.6
- Unemployment:
- 2020: 11.9
- 2021: 12.3
- 2022: 11.8
- 2023: 13.0
- 2024: 13.3
- 2025 (proj.): 13.2
- 2026 (proj.): 12.9
- 2027 (proj.): 12.4
- 2028 (proj.): 12.1
- Current account (percent of GDP):
- 2020: -1.2
- 2021: -2.3
- 2022: -3.5
- 2023: -0.6
- 2024: -1.5
- 2025 (proj.): -2.0
- 2026 (proj.): -2.2
- 2027 (proj.): -2.6
- 2028 (proj.): -2.9
- Gross reserves (months of imports):
- 2020: 7.2
- 2021: 5.8
- 2022: 5.4
- 2023: 5.2
- 2024: 5.2
- External debt (percent of GDP) selected years:
- 2020: 54.2
- 2021: 45.5
- 2022: 46.9
- 2023: 50.2
- 2024: 47.8
- 2025 (proj.): 49.2
- 2026 (proj.): 50.0
- 2027 (proj.): 50.9
- 2028 (proj.): 54.0
- 2029 (proj.): 57.3
- Nominal GDP (in billions of U.S. dollars):
- 2020: 121
- 2021: 142
- 2022: 131
- 2023: 144
- 2024: 155
- 2025 (proj.): 166
- 2026 (proj.): 177
- 2027 (proj.): 188
- 2028 (proj.): 199
- 2029 (proj.): 212
- 2030 (proj.): 225
- Net imports of energy products (in billions of U.S. dollars):
- 2020: -5.3
- 2021: -8.4
- 2022: -15.1
- 2023: -11.5
- 2024: -12.1
- 2025 (proj.): -12.3
- 2026 (proj.): -13.2
- 2027 (proj.): -13.7
- 2028 (proj.): -14.1

Source: IMF Communications Department — "IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation, Third Review under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility with Morocco", April 8, 2025.