Press Briefing Transcript: Middle East and Central Asia Department, Spring Meetings 2025

IMF News, April 24, 2025

Source details

Canonical URL: Press Briefing Transcript: Middle East and Central Asia Department, Spring Meetings 2025

Other formats

Bibliographic details

Published: April 24, 2025

Regional outlook — key findings and projections

Global context: "The global economy stands at a delicate crossroads." Recent escalation in trade tensions and increased geopolitical fragmentation are described as serious downside risks to global growth and confidence.
MENA (Middle East and North Africa)
- Regional growth in 2024: 1.8 percent (a downgrade revision of 0.2 percentage point from the October World Economic Outlook forecast).
- Projected growth: 2.6 percent in 2025 and 3.4 percent in 2026 (a downward revision of 1.3 and 1 percentage points, respectively, relative to the October 2024 Regional Economic Outlook).
- Inflation: "projected to continue declining across MENA economies, remaining elevated only in few cases."
- Drivers: conflict-related impacts, extended OPEC+ voluntary production cuts, and in GCC countries offsetting effects of strong non-oil growth and diversification efforts.
CCA (Caucasus and Central Asia)
- Growth in 2024: 5.4 percent (exceeded expectations, driven by spillovers from the war in Ukraine boosting domestic demand).
- Outlook: growth expected to moderate as temporary effects normalize; inflation expected to increase somewhat and remain elevated in a few cases.
IMF regional financing support (since early 2020): "we have approved almost $50 billion in financing to countries across the MENA region, Pakistan, and the CCA, of which 14.8 have been approved since early 2024."

Main risks and scenarios

Four key downside risks identified:
- Trade tensions and further escalation (dampening global demand, delaying oil production recovery, tightening financial conditions).
- Geopolitical conflict.
- Climate shocks.
- Reduction in official development assistance (could exacerbate food insecurity and humanitarian conditions in low-income and conflict-affected economies).
Indirect channels of trade-tariff effects on MENA and CCA highlighted:
- Weaker external demand and remittances.
- Tighter financial conditions challenging countries with elevated public debts.
- Lower oil prices deteriorating fiscal and external positions for oil exporters.
- Trade diversion effects that "could be short lived in a broader environment of trade contraction."
Upside scenarios:
- Swift resolution of conflicts and accelerated implementation of structural reforms could substantially improve regional growth prospects.
- Uncertain implications of a potential peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine for the CCA region.

Country-specific highlights and numbers

Egypt
- Growth: 2024: 2.4 percent; fiscal year 2025 expected to reach 3.8 percent; 2026 expected to reach 4.3 percent.
- Inflation: fiscal year 2024 average 33 percent; 2025: 19.7 percent; 2026: 12 percent.
- Program pillars reiterated: macroeconomic stability (inflation control via monetary tightening), debt management and primary surplus improvement, exchange rate flexibility to protect from external shocks, and growth via private-sector reinvestment and divestment strategy.
- Review: "The review has been completed in March."
Pakistan
- Inflation: 12.6 percent in fiscal year 2024 to 6.5 percent this year, "expected to stay at this level for next year."
- Debt: "debt is also stabilizing" and recent rating upgrades noted.
- Vulnerability: relatively more exposed to trade tensions among regional peers but scope to reposition and benefit from changes in trade routes.
GCC and oil-related metrics
- Fiscal/external sensitivity: "a decline in oil price of $10 would weaken the fiscal situation by somewhat between 2.3 to 2.7 percent of GDP," and "it also, it has similar impact on the external account between 2.5 to 2.7 percent of GDP."
- Additional statement on impacts: "a decline of $10.00 per barrel or a decline of $1 million of production will have an impact on the fiscal between 2 to 3 percent."
- Break-even context: earlier estimates cited (October report) showed Saudi break-even around 90 (mentioned by participants).
- Tariff exposure: oil and gas are exempt from the increase in tariffs; direct trade exposure to the U.S. is limited for many GCC countries.
Lebanon
- Staff-level agreement reached in 2022; staff remains actively engaged with authorities via technical assistance and recent visits.
- Challenges: compounded by war-related destruction and reconstruction needs; program pillars discussed include addressing legacy of the financial sector, debt, fiscal consolidation, governance reforms, SOE reform, and social issues associated with reconstruction.
Syria
- Engagement limited since 2011; last Article IV consultation in 2009.
- Recent multilateral coordination: preparatory meeting in AlUla in February; follow-up coordination meeting convened last Tuesday; Fund has begun macroeconomic and institutional capacity assessments.
Yemen
- Humanitarian and food-security crisis emphasized; current security constraints limit Fund financial assistance.
- IMF engagement: technical assistance ongoing; plan to reengage through Article IV to assess economic situation and debt liabilities and to support donor assessment and recovery planning.

Policy recommendations and priorities

Two-pronged policy approach: manage short-term instability and use the moment to advance structural reforms for long-term growth.
Short-term priorities
- Adapt to the new environment and shield economies from worst-case scenarios.
- Safeguard macroeconomic and financial stability; responses should be tailored to each country's initial conditions and vulnerabilities.
- Preserve or build buffers; accelerate fiscal consolidation where buffers are limited; maintain buffers where available.
Medium- and long-term priorities (structural transformation)
- Accelerate governance improvements, human capital investment, digitalization, and private-sector development.
- Advance divestment and reinvestment strategies (Egypt highlighted) to support growth and reduce debt burden.
- Move toward more effective social protection (shift from untargeted subsidies to targeted social support).
- Establish strategic trade and investment corridors with Sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, and within the region (examples: between GCC and Central Asia, GCC and North Africa) to mitigate external uncertainty, enable risk sharing, and drive sustainable development.
- Anchor fiscal policy in medium-term frameworks to reduce procyclicality (noted for Saudi Arabia).
Post-conflict recovery approach
- Emphasize capacity building, policy guidance, and financial assistance in coordination with World Bank and regional partners via an informal coordination group for conflict-affected Middle East states.
- Recovery requires international financial assistance combined with accelerated reforms to restore confidence and mobilize private-sector and diaspora financing.

Implementation, forthcoming events, and operational notes

Regional Economic Outlook launch: May 1 in Dubai; additional event in Samarkand on May 3 (GCC-CCA Economic Conference).
Public seminar: invitation to a 2:30 p.m. Atrium panel on navigating uncertainties.
IMF operational engagement: ongoing technical assistance, Article IV reengagement plans (Yemen), staff visits (Lebanon, other countries), and program reviews (Egypt).
Executive Board/Reviews: Jordan review scheduled next month (context of Resilience and Sustainability Facility discussed).

Press Briefing Transcript: Middle East and Central Asia Department, Spring Meetings 2025

Press Briefing Transcript: Middle East and Central Asia Department, Spring Meetings 2025

Source details

Other formats

Bibliographic details

Regional outlook — key findings and projections

Main risks and scenarios

Country-specific highlights and numbers

Policy recommendations and priorities

Implementation, forthcoming events, and operational notes

References