IMF Executive Board Approves a New 48-Month Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement for Chad
IMF News, July 25, 2025
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- IMF Executive Board Approves a New 48-Month Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement for Chad
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Bibliographic details
- Published: July 25, 2025
Approval and financing terms
- Approved 48-month arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) in the amount of SDR 455.65 million (about US$625 million or 325 percent of quota).
- Executive Board decision allows for an immediate first disbursement equivalent to SDR 28.04 million (about US$38.5 million).
- The ECF arrangement is expected to catalyze additional external financing from development partners.
Program objectives and pillars
- Purpose: support the authorities’ National Development Plan 2025-2030 by ensuring fiscal sustainability, creating fiscal space for key development projects, increasing targeted social spending, and improving governance and the business climate; help meet Chad’s balance of payment needs amid acute financing pressures.
- Program anchored on three main pillars:
- Ensure sustainable fiscal policy and create fiscal space for development projects.
- Expand targeted social spending to lift development outcomes and foster inclusion.
- Improve governance and the business climate to support private sector development and more balanced growth.
- Program will contribute to regional external stability for the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC) by meeting Chad's balance of payments financing needs during volatile oil prices, unprecedented refugees and food security crises, diminishing donor support, and a funding squeeze.
Key policy recommendations and reform priorities (as stated by Mr. Clarke, Deputy Managing Director and Chair)
- Fiscal reforms
- Mobilize non-oil revenues through targeted tax increases, streamlining tax exemptions, and digitalization of tax administration.
- Contain non-priority spending by streamlining the wage bill, reducing use of emergency spending procedures, and strengthening public financial management and fiscal transparency.
- Social inclusion and governance
- Expand biometric identification and the unified social registry to deliver effective social protection.
- Governance reforms in the oil sector to enhance transparency and accountability.
- Authorities requested an IMF Governance Diagnostic, committed to publish an audit on oil revenues, and to improve oversight of state-owned enterprises.
Context and risks highlighted
- Chad faces humanitarian, climate, and security shocks, volatile oil prices, declining official development assistance, and an unprecedented influx of refugees from Sudan.
- These factors have heightened balance-of-payment needs, strained public finances, and intensified social and humanitarian pressures.
- The authorities have adopted an ambitious National Development Plan for 2025–2030 and demonstrated commitment to macroeconomic stability and reform following the conclusion of the political transition in early 2025.
Selected economic and financial indicators (2023–30)
- Real Economy (annual percentage change, unless otherwise indicated)
- GDP in chained volumes: 2023: 5.0; 2024: 3.5; 2025: 3.3; 2026: 3.6; 2027: 3.7; 2028: 4.0; 2029: 4.1.
- Oil GDP: 2023: 7.4; 2024: -1.2; 2025: -0.7; 2026: 2.3; 2027: 3.2; 2028: 1.3.
- Non-oil GDP: 2023: 4.3; 2024: 4.6; 2025: 4.2; 2026: 3.8; 2027: 4.4.
- GDP deflator: 2023: -4.2; 2024: 2.8; 2025: 0.2; 2026: 1.5; 2027: 1.9; 2028: 2.0.
- Consumer price index (annual average): 2023: 5.1; 2024: 3.1; 2025: 3.0.
- Oil prices (US$/barrel)
- Brent: 2023: 82.3; 2024: 79.9; 2025: 67.7; 2026: 63.3; 2027: 63.7; 2028: 64.7; 2029: 65.6; 2030: 66.4.
- Chadian price (Brent minus quality discount): 2023: 77.8; 2024: 78.2; 2025: 65.3; 2026: 60.6; 2027: 60.7; 2028: 61.7; 2029: 62.6; 2030: 63.4.
- Oil production for exports (millions of barrels): 2023: 51.5; 2024: 50.8; 2025: 50.4; 2026: 52.7; 2027: 53.9; 2028: 55.8; 2029: 57.2; 2030: 58.0.
- Money and Credit (changes as percent of broad money stock at the beginning of period)
- Net foreign assets3: 2023: -0.9; 2024: 28.1; 2025: 0.9; 2026: 0.6; 2027: 0.0; 2028: 0.1.
- Net domestic assets3: 2023: 15.4; 2024: -11.2; 2025: 11.1; 2026: 9.4; 2027: 8.0; 2028: 7.7; 2029: 6.6.
- Of which: net claims on central government: 2023: 4.5; 2024: 0.3; 2025: -0.8; 2026: -2.1; 2027: -0.5; 2028: 1.6; 2029: 0.4; 2030: -0.2.
- Of which: credit to private sector: 2023: 4.9; 2024: 7.1; 2025: 3.4.
- Broad money: 2023: 14.6; 2024: 17.0; 2025: 12.0; 2026: 10.0; 2027: 7.8; 2028: 7.5; 2029: 7.3.
- Velocity (non-oil GDP/broad money): 3.9.
- External Sector (valued in US dollars)
- Exports of goods and services, f.o.b. (annual percentage change): 2023: -5.9; 2024: -5.8; 2025: 4.8; 2026: 4.7.
- Imports of goods and services, f.o.b. (annual percentage change): 2023: 5.9; 2024: 2.7.
- Overall balance of payments (percent of GDP): 2023: 0.5; 2024: -2.6; 2025: -2.2.
- Current account balance, including official transfers (% of GDP): 2023: 1.0; 2024: -2.5; 2025: -3.5; 2026: -3.2; 2027: -3.4.
- Terms of trade: 2023: -13.0; 2024: 10.9; 2025: -7.2; 2026: 1.1; 2027: 1.4.
- External debt (percent of GDP)4: 2023: 16.7; 2024: 17.2; 2025: 17.9; 2026: 20.2; 2027: 22.1; 2028: 21.7; 2029: 21.4; 2030: 20.9.
- NPV of external debt (percent of exports of goods and services): 2023: 43.5; 2024: 45.2; 2025: 50.2; 2026: 56.4; 2027: 60.4; 2028: 59.2; 2029: 58.6.
- Government Finance (percent of non-oil GDP, unless otherwise indicated)
- Revenue and grants: 2023: 19.1; 2024: 21.2; 2025: 18.8; 2026: 19.3; 2027: 19.2; 2028: 19.4.
- Of which: oil revenue: 2023: 11.5; 2024: 9.3; 2025: 8.6; 2026: 6.0; 2027: 6.1; 2028: 6.3.
- Of which: non-oil revenue: 2023: 6.9; 2024: 8.7; 2025: 9.6; 2026: 9.7; 2027: 9.8.
- Expenditure: 2023: 22.7; 2024: 21.6; 2025: 21.8; 2026: 20.6; 2027: 20.1.
- Current expenditure: 2023: 13.9; 2024: 14.1; 2025: 12.8; 2026: 12.4; 2027: 12.1; 2028: 11.8; 2029: 11.6.
- Capital expenditure: 2023: 7.0; 2024: 8.8; 2025: 9.5; 2026: 8.5; 2027: 8.4.
- Non-oil primary balance (commitment basis, excl. grants)5: 2023: -11.5; 2024: -9.7; 2025: -6.8; 2026: -6.2; 2027: -5.6; 2028: -5.2; 2029: -4.8; 2030: -4.6.
- CEMAC reference overall balance (in percent of GDP)6: 2023: -4.5; 2024: -3.0; 2025: -1.4; 2026: -1.9; 2027: -1.8; 2028: -1.5.
- Overall fiscal balance (incl. grants, commitments basis): 2023: -2.9; 2024: -1.3; 2025: -0.6.
- Total debt (in percent of GDP)4: 2023: 32.3; 2024: 32.8; 2025: 33.0; 2026: 34.2; 2027: 34.7; 2028: 33.3; 2029: 32.0; 2030: 31.3.
- Of which: domestic debt: 2023: 15.6; 2024: 15.1; 2025: 14.0; 2026: 12.6; 2027: 10.6; 2028: 10.4.
- Memorandum items
- Nominal GDP (billions of CFA francs): 2023: 11,303; 2024: 12,025; 2025: 12,452; 2026: 13,089; 2027: 13,788; 2028: 14,576; 2029: 15,452; 2030: 16,383.
- Of which: non-oil GDP (billions of CFA francs): 2023: 9,232; 2024: 9,969; 2025: 10,748; 2026: 11,442; 2027: 12,100; 2028: 12,804; 2029: 13,613; 2030: 14,497.
- Nominal GDP (billions of US$): 2023: 18.6; 2024: 19.8; 2025: 20.4; 2026: 24.0; 2027: 25.5; 2028: 27.0.
Source: International Monetary Fund. Press Release No. 25/269, July 25, 2025.
