IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Mali

IMF News, July 31, 2025

Source details

Canonical URL

IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Mali

Other formats

• Markdown version
• Structured JSON version
• Bundle manifest

Bibliographic details

• Published: July 31, 2025

Overview

• The Executive Board concluded the Article IV consultation with Mali on July 30, 2025.
• The authorities need more time to consider the publication of the Staff Report prepared for this consultation; a final decision is expected not later than 28 days from the Board consideration date.
• Press Release No. 25/271.

Economic outlook and projections

• Growth and production
  • Economic growth is expected to reach 5 percent in 2025, supported by strong agricultural production, the start of lithium extraction and continued growth in services.
  • Contingent on mining activities returning to normal levels, growth is expected to rebound to 5.4 percent in 2026.
  • Downsides: decrease in foreign aid, lower gold production, and the shutdown of the largest mine weigh negatively on the outlook.
• Inflation and monetary indicators
  • Consumer price inflation (average): 2022: 9.7; 2023: 2.1; 2024: 3.2; 2025: 2.0.
  • Broad money (M2): 2022: 10.7; 2023: -1.1; 2024: 1.8; 2025: -1.8.
  • Credit to the economy: 2022: 14.9; 2023: 0.3; 2024: 4.3; 2025: -5.2; 2026: 7.5; 2027: 7.3.
  • Credit to the government: 2022: 77.7; 2023: 34.8; 2024: 0.1; 2025: 2.4; 2026: 25.1; 2027: 16.5.
• External sector
  • Current account balance, including official transfers: 2022: -7.7; 2023: -7.6; 2024: -4.8; 2025: -2.8.
  • Current account balance, excluding official transfers: 2022: -10.2; 2023: -9.6; 2024: -5.0; 2025: -3.1.
  • Exports of goods and services: 2022: 30.3; 2023: 28.9; 2024: 26.3; 2025: 30.4; 2026: 29.9.
  • Imports of goods and services: 2022: 41.2; 2023: 38.1; 2024: 31.8; 2025: 33.4; 2026: 33.0; 2027: 32.4.
  • Overall balance of payments: 2022: -3.8; 2023: -4.3; 2024: -0.8; 2025: 1.7; 2026: 1.9.
  • Terms of trade (deterioration -): 2022: -21.0; 2023: 12.1; 2024: 22.2; 2025: 12.8; 2026: 1.5; 2027: -1.3.
• Public finance and debt
  • Fiscal deficit (overall balance, accrual basis): 2022: -4.7; 2023: -3.6; 2024: -2.6; 2025: -3.4; 2026: -3.2; 2027: -3.0.
  • Fiscal deficit is forecast to widen to 3.4 percent in 2025, driven in part by government spending to mitigate flooding.
  • Overall balance (cash basis): 2022: -4.6; 2023: -2.5; 2024: -2.0; 2025: -3.9.
  • Revenue, o/w: 2022: 19.3; 2023: 20.6; 2024: 22.0; 2025: 21.5.
  • Tax revenue: 2022: 13.2; 2023: 14.8; 2024: 15.8; 2025: 15.6.
  • Grants: 2022: 0.4; 2023: 0.7; 2024: 0.6.
  • Total expenditure and net lending: 2022: 24.4; 2023: 24.8; 2024: 24.7; 2025: 25.2; 2026: 25.0.
  • Public debt (percent of GDP): 2022: 50.3; 2023: 51.9; 2024: 51.7; 2025: 50.5; 2026: 49.5; 2027: 48.8.
  • External public debt: 2022: 26.2; 2023: 26.4; 2024: 24.2; 2025: 22.6; 2026: 21.2; 2027: 20.3.
  • Domestic public debt²: 2022: 24.1; 2023: 25.5; 2024: 27.5; 2025: 27.9; 2026: 28.3; 2027: 28.5.
  • Debt service: 2022: 6.4; 2023: 7.1; 2024: 6.7; 2025: 10.1; 2026: 12.5.

Key findings and risks

• Mali’s economy has shown resilience despite multiple shocks: ongoing conflict, food insecurity, severe floods, power outages, aid cutbacks, and the shutdown of its largest gold mine.
• The outlook remains uncertain, with considerable downside risks.
• Lower mining revenues, elevated spending needs post flooding, and the shutdown of major mining activity are significant near-term risks.
• Financial sector vulnerabilities noted: growing exposure of Malian banks to government securities and a recent halt in credit expansion.

Executive Board assessment and recommendations

• Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal and welcomed the resilience of Mali’s economy.
• Fiscal policy
  • Supported a temporary fiscal loosening in 2025 given lower mining revenues and elevated spending needs.
  • Welcomed the authorities’ commitment to reduce the deficit below the WAEMU deficit ceiling of 3 percent of GDP by 2027.
  • Encouraged sustained efforts to strengthen domestic revenue mobilization to help safeguard medium-term fiscal sustainability while creating space for social and growth-friendly capital spending.
  • Key priorities: converge toward WAEMU’s 3 percent of GDP fiscal deficit ceiling; strengthen domestic revenue mobilization through broadening the tax base and strengthening revenue and customs administration; improve spending efficiency while safeguarding public investment and protecting vulnerable households.
  • Encouraged establishment of a medium-term fiscal framework to enhance transparency, predictability, and policy credibility.
• Social protection and poverty
  • Highlighted the importance of strengthening the social safety net and scaling up targeted measures to support the most vulnerable given high poverty levels, large numbers of displaced people, and declining foreign aid.
• Structural and governance reforms
  • Reducing domestic policy uncertainty and advancing structural reforms are key to unlocking Mali’s growth potential.
  • Recommended improving the business climate by improving transparency and stability of the regulatory framework to boost private investment.
  • Urged strengthening fiscal governance, improving public financial management, addressing vulnerabilities in State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs), and enhancing SOE oversight—particularly in the electricity utility, Energie de Mali.
  • Commended progress in enhancing the AML/CFT framework and successfully exiting the FATF grey list; urged sustained efforts to bolster anti-corruption frameworks and operationalize the beneficial ownership register.
  • Encouraged further action on asset declaration enforcement, SOE oversight, judicial integrity, and strengthening mining sector regulatory frameworks.
• Financial stability
  • Encouraged further steps to enhance supervisory capacity and strengthen risk management frameworks to safeguard financial stability.

Forward look

• Directors urged implementation of growth-enhancing reforms to realize ambitious development goals: tackle growth bottlenecks, enhance public investment management, spur private sector dynamism, attract foreign investment, address climate adaptation, and diversify the economy.
• It is expected that the next Article IV consultation with Mali will be held on the standard 12-month cycle.

Source: IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Mali (Press Release No. 25/271, July 31, 2025).

References

• https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg
• The Executive Board
• Benin and the IMF
• Burkina Faso and the IMF
• Côte d'Ivoire and the IMF
• Mali and the IMF
• Niger and the IMF
• Senegal and the IMF
• Togo and the IMF
• IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet
• Press Releases
• PRESS CENTER
• https://www.imf.org/en/home