IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Post-Financing Assessment with Angola
IMF News, September 5, 2025
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- Published: September 5, 2025
Overview
- The Executive Board concluded the Post-Financing Assessment (PFA) with Angola. Authorities consented to publication of the Staff Report prepared for this consultation.
- Press Release No. 25/288; date: September 5, 2025.
- Press officer: Tatiana Mossot. Contact: Phone: +1 202 623-7100; Email: MEDIA@IMF.org.
Recent economic performance
- Real GDP growth in 2024: 4.4 percent.
- Growth drivers in 2024: robust oil production and revitalized non-oil sector activities.
- Current account surplus in 2024: 5.4 percent of GDP.
- Gross international reserves (end-2024): $15.8 billion, equivalent to 7.7 months of import cover.
- Inflation: 31.1 percent in July 2024 (peak); 19.5 percent in July 2025. Projected to continue declining gradually over the medium term.
- Public debt-to-GDP ratio in 2024: 60 percent, supported by higher nominal GDP growth and sustained fiscal primary surpluses.
2025 developments and near-term outlook
- Angola faced a decline in oil revenues and tightening external financial conditions in the first half of 2025.
- Overall fiscal deficit projected to widen to 2.8 percent of GDP in 2025 from 1.0 percent in 2024.
- Near-term financing pressures remain elevated due to sizable maturing external debt.
- Growth expected to decelerate in the near term due to external headwinds; projected to recover to around 3 percent over the medium term with structural reforms and diversification efforts.
- Authorities acknowledge need for adjustment and commit to prudent debt management and risk-mitigation measures.
Capacity to repay and risk scenarios
- Angola’s capacity to repay is assessed as adequate but subject to risks; risks have increased since last year.
- Adverse scenario: persistent oil production challenges and rising oil price pressures would weaken repayment indicators and elevate repayment capacity risks.
Executive Board assessment and policy recommendations
- Directors welcomed stronger-than-expected 2024 performance but noted intensified vulnerabilities from oil price declines and domestic oil production challenges.
- Key recommendations and emphases:
- Pursue prudent macroeconomic policies and sustained reform efforts; continue engagement with the Fund.
- Prompt and credible policy adjustments to mitigate emerging risks, safeguard macroeconomic stability, and strengthen debt sustainability.
- Rationalize expenditures to preserve fiscal space and contain borrowing, given declining oil revenues.
- Advance the fuel subsidy reform (noting the delay to 2028), accompanied by measures to protect the most vulnerable and a strong communication strategy.
- Intensify non-oil revenue mobilization, consistent with IMF technical assistance.
- Accelerate Public Financial Management reforms to enhance fiscal transparency, prevent arrears accumulation, and improve spending efficiency.
- Smooth debt repayments and manage debt prudently; prioritize low-cost financing options and avoid excessive reliance on short-term, costly financing.
- Mobilize donor financing for development spending.
- Allow the exchange rate to serve as a key shock absorber, with limited rules-based foreign exchange interventions.
- Avoid premature monetary policy easing to sustain disinflation and anchor inflation expectations.
- Banco Nacional de Angola (BNA) to improve monetary policy effectiveness, continue close supervision of systemic risks including the sovereign‑bank nexus, and strengthen the financial stability framework to enhance safety nets and support credit intermediation.
- Complete the 2025 Financial System Assessment Program; strengthen the AML/CFT framework and exit the FATF grey list.
- Improve the business climate and governance frameworks to achieve more diversified, export‑oriented and resilient growth; implement market‑friendly horizontal policies as part of the National Development Plan and the African Union’s agenda.
Selected economic indicators (2024–26) — highlights and exact figures
- Real gross domestic product: 2024: 4.4; 2025: 2.1; 2026: (Proj.) 3.0 (note: “recover to around 3 percent” stated in text).
- Oil sector (percent change): 2024: 2.8; 2025: -2.0; 2026: 0.0.
- Non-oil sector (percent change): 2024: 4.7; 2025: 2.9; 2026: 2.5.
- Nominal gross domestic product (GDP): 2024: 30.1; 2025: 23.1; 2026: 21.6.
- GDP deflator: 2024: 24.6; 2025: 20.5; 2026: 19.1.
- Non-oil GDP deflator: 2024: 25.2; 2025: 24.0; 2026: 19.2.
- Consumer prices (annual average): 2024: 28.2; 2025: 16.3.
- Consumer prices (end of period): 2024: 27.5; 2025: 20.0; 2026: 13.4.
- Central government — total revenue (percent of GDP): 2024: 17.4; 2025: 15.6; 2026: 15.4.
- Of which: Oil-related: 2024: 10.4; 2025: 8.6; 2026: 8.4.
- Of which: Non-oil tax: 2024: 6.2; 2025: 6.1.
- Total expenditure (percent of GDP): 2024: 18.4; 2025: 18.3; 2026: 18.3.
- Current expenditure (percent of GDP): 2024: 14.8; 2025: 13.3; 2026: 13.5.
- Capital spending (percent of GDP): 2024: 3.6; 2025: 5.0; 2026: 4.9.
- Overall fiscal balance (percent of GDP): 2024: -1.0; 2025: -2.8; 2026: -3.0.
- Non-oil primary fiscal balance (percent of GDP): 2024: -6.1; 2025: -6.8; 2026: -6.6.
- Broad money (M2) — Percent of GDP: 2024: 16.4.
- Velocity (GDP/M2): 2024: 5.1.
- Credit to the private sector (annual percent change): 2024: 25.4; 2025: 19.6; 2026: 13.1.
- Trade balance (percent of GDP): 2024: 14.6; 2025: 14.4.
- Exports of goods, f.o.b. (percent of GDP): 2024: 31.9; 2025: 28.0.
- Of which: Oil and gas exports (percent of GDP): 2024: 29.9; 2025: 25.6.
- Imports of goods, f.o.b. (percent of GDP): 2024: 12.3; 2025: 13.8.
- Terms of trade (percent change): 2024: -2.2; 2025: -12.9; 2026: -6.3.
- Current account balance (percent of GDP): 2024: 5.4; 2025: 0.9; 2026: 0.5.
- Gross international reserves (end of period, millions of U.S. dollars): 2024: 15,768; 2025: 14,268; 2026: 12,668.
- Gross international reserves (months of next year's imports): 2024: 7.7; 2025: 7.1.
- Official exchange rate (average, kwanzas per U.S. dollar): 2024: 870; 2025: ….
- Official exchange rate (end of period, kwanzas per U.S. dollar): 2024: 924.
- Public sector debt (gross) (percent of GDP): 2024: 59.9; 2025: 62.4; 2026: 63.2.
- Of which: Central Government debt: 2024: 57.6; 2025: 58.7; 2026: 59.4.
- Oil production (millions of barrels per day): 2024: 1.10; 2025: 1.08.
- Oil and gas exports (billions of U.S. dollars): 2024: 34.5; 2025: 29.4; 2026: 27.9.
- Angola oil price (average, U.S. dollars per barrel): 2024: 78.5; 2025: 66.6; 2026: 62.2.
- Brent oil price (average, U.S. dollars per barrel): 2024: 79.9; 2025: 67.7; 2026: 63.3.
IMF Press Release No. 25/288, September 5, 2025.