IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Djibouti
IMF News, September 11, 2025
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- Published: September 11, 2025
Main findings and Board assessment
- The Executive Board concluded the Article IV consultation and endorsed the staff appraisal without a meeting on a lapse-of-time basis.
- Djibouti “has handled recent shocks well, maintaining solid growth despite Red Sea tensions, with moderate inflation and rising reserves.”
- Logistics investments over the past decade have boosted growth and economic transformation but increased external debt, leaving limited fiscal space given development needs.
- The authorities’ focus on macroeconomic stability, debt sustainability, and economic diversification to support job creation is described as commendable.
Growth, inflation, and external outlook
- Growth:
- Real GDP: 2024 estimated at 6.5 (surpassed 6½ percent of GDP in 2024).
- Projection: 6.0 for 2025; stabilizing near 5.5 in the medium term.
- Inflation:
- Consumer prices (annual average): 2024 = 1.6; 2025 = 1.5; 2026 = 1.7.
- Consumer prices (end of period): 2023 = 3.7; 2024 = -0.6; 2025 = 1.8; 2026 = 1.7.
- External risks noted: heightened instability in the Horn of Africa, increased migration, reduced development aid, new competition from nearby ports, and global policy shifts that could weaken the dollar and Djibouti franc (possibly spurring service exports but raising inflation).
Fiscal position, reserves, and debt sustainability
- Fiscal performance:
- 2024: “substantial fiscal consolidation” helped rebuild reserves after earlier overruns.
- Authorities plan to maintain strong fiscal consolidation, aiming for a government surplus this year and a balanced budget in the medium term.
- Debt and reserves:
- Overall Central Government and Publicly Guaranteed Debt: 2024 = 68.9; 2025 = 67.2; 2026 = 62.3; 2027 = 56.9; 2028 = 50.1; 2029 = 44.0; 2030 = 38.5.
- Gross official reserves (US$ millions): 2021 = 578; 2022 = 581; 2023 = 494; 2024 = 338; 2025 = 393; 2026 = 444; 2027 = 483; 2028 = 527; 2029 = 569; 2030 = 609.
- Reserve levels “remain below the monetary base.”
- Key priorities to restore debt sustainability and rebuild reserves:
- Clear all arrears and finalize debt negotiations.
- Contain public and publicly guaranteed debt through quantified and enforced ceilings on both SOE and central government debt.
- Durable fiscal consolidation and effective implementation of the revenue and expenditure measures in the authorities’ 2024–27 Action Plan for fiscal reforms.
- Rationalize tax expenditures associated with derogatory regimes.
State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) and financial sector measures
- Staff welcomes commitment to accelerate SOE governance reform, including:
- Implement the Code of Good SOE Governance.
- Collect financial statements from all SOEs to allow performance monitoring.
- Enforce a transparent dividend policy and gradually deleverage highly indebted SOEs.
- Review SOE portfolio to retain, restructure, or divest entities and apply a market-based approach to financial settlement practices between SOEs and the state.
- Mobilize dividends from profitable SOEs (including ex-SWF entities) for debt service and reserve accumulation.
Policy recommendations to support inclusive growth and private sector development
- Mobilize SOE dividends and implement efficiency-enhancing SOE reforms.
- Standardize tax regimes to broaden the tax base and substantially narrow tax exemptions.
- Limit non-essential expenditures and apply a medium-term debt strategy.
- Speed up reforms to boost private investment, diversify the economy, and create jobs:
- Level the playing field between companies under general and special regimes.
- Lower electricity costs by curbing government agencies' overuse and improving bill collection.
- Enhance SME financing.
- Strengthen education and job training under the 2021–35 education master plan to support Vision 2035.
- Strengthen the currency board by:
- Amending the CBD law to enhance autonomy.
- Implementing reserve requirements incrementally.
- Considering retaining future CBD profits to bolster reserves.
Data, statistics, and transparency
- The authorities have taken steps to improve dissemination and quality of macroeconomic statistics.
- Staff encourages further improvements in coverage and consistency of national, fiscal, and external accounts data in line with DAA requirements, including timely publication.
Selected economic and financial indicators (selected lines from Table 1)
- Real GDP (annual percentage change): 2021 = 4.4; 2022 = 5.2; 2023 = 7.4; 2024 = 6.5; 2025 (Proj.) = 6.0; 2026 = 5.5.
- Consumer prices (annual average): 2021 = 1.2; 2022 = 1.4; 2023 = 2.1; 2024 = 1.6; 2025 = 1.5; 2026 = 1.7.
- Fixed capital investment (percent of GDP): 2021 = 29.7; 2022 = 29.0; 2023 = 24.5; 2024 = 26.1; 2025 = 26.0; 2026 = 26.5; 2027 = 26.7.
- Gross national savings (percent of GDP): 2021 = 23.1; 2022 = 47.9; 2023 = 42.6; 2024 = 40.2; 2025 = 34.2; 2026 = 33.6; 2027 = 33.9; 2028 = 34.8; 2029 = 35.0.
- Revenues and grants (percent of GDP): 2021 = 20.1; 2022 = 19.5; 2023 = 18.0; 2024 = 18.8; 2025 = 18.6; 2026 = 18.5.
- Tax revenues (percent of GDP): 2021 = 11.6; 2022 = 11.7; 2023 = 11.1; 2024 = 11.0; 2025 = 11.2; 2026 = 11.3; 2027 = 11.4; 2028 = 11.5.
- Expenditure (percent of GDP): 2021 = 21.0; 2022 = 21.5; 2023 = 19.6; 2024 = 19.2.
- Overall balance (commitment basis, percent of GDP): 2021 = -3.1; 2022 = -1.5; 2023 = -3.5; 2024 = -2.6; 2025 = -1.0; 2026 = -0.8; 2027 = -0.3; 2028 = -0.1.
- Overall Central Government and Publicly Guaranteed Debt (percent of GDP): 2021 = 71.5; 2022 = 69.0; 2023 = 69.9; 2024 = 68.9; 2025 = 67.2; 2026 = 62.3; 2027 = 56.9; 2028 = 50.1; 2029 = 44.0; 2030 = 38.5.
- Current account balance (US$ millions): 2021 = -224; 2022 = 675; 2023 = 708; 2024 = 604; 2025 = 373; 2026 = 381; 2027 = 427; 2028 = 469; 2029 = 509; 2030 = 545.
- External public and publicly guaranteed debt (US$ millions): 2021 = 2,423; 2022 = 2,455; 2023 = 2,738; 2024 = 2,985; 2025 = 2,951; 2026 = 2,823; 2027 = 2,691; 2028 = 2,549; 2029 = 2,394; 2030 = 2,260.
- Gross official reserves (US$ millions): 2021 = 578; 2022 = 581; 2023 = 494; 2024 = 338; 2025 = 393; 2026 = 444; 2027 = 483; 2028 = 527; 2029 = 569; 2030 = 609.
- Nominal GDP (millions of Djibouti francs): 2021 = 602,971; 2022 = 633,187; 2023 = 696,160; 2024 = 762,621; 2025 = 819,904; 2026 = 889,110; 2027 = 960,745; 2028 = 1,027,130; 2029 = 1,089,802; 2030 = 1,165,581.
- Nominal GDP (millions of US dollars): 2021 = 3,393; 2022 = 3,563; 2023 = 3,917; 2024 = 4,291; 2025 = 4,613; 2026 = 5,003; 2027 = 5,406; 2028 = 5,779; 2029 = 6,132; 2030 = 6,558.
- Population (million): 2021 = 1.002; 2022 = 1.016; 2023 = 1.030; 2024 = 1.043; 2025 = 1.056; 2026 = 1.069; 2027 = 1.081; 2028 = 1.093; 2029 = 1.106; 2030 = 1.117.
Press Release No. 25/292, International Monetary Fund, September 11, 2025.