Press Briefing Transcript: Julie Kozack, Director, Communications Department, October 2, 2025
IMF News, October 2, 2025
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- Published: October 2, 2025
Announcements and Publications schedule
- Managing Director is currently in Kuwait participating in the annual GCC Ministerial Meetings; meeting Kuwaiti authorities and the Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development.
- Upcoming launches ahead of the Annual Meetings:
- WEO Chapter 3, "Industrial Policy: Managing Trade-Offs to Promote Growth and Resilience," will be launched tomorrow, October 3rd.
- WEO Chapter 2 on "Emerging Market Resilience: Good Luck or Good Policies?" and GFSR Chapter 3, "Global Shocks, Local Markets: The Changing Landscape for Emerging Market Sovereign Debt," will be launched jointly on October 6th.
- GFSR Chapter 2 on "Risk and Resilience in the Global Foreign Exchange Market" will be launched on October 7.
- The Fiscal Monitor Chapter, "How Public Spending Can Contribute to Economic Growth: the Role of Spending Efficiency and Composition," will be launched on October 7.
- Managing Director will deliver her Curtain Raiser Speech on Wednesday, October 8th, at 10 a.m. at the Milken Institute in Washington, D.C.; the speech will focus on the outlook for the global economy and key policy priorities and will be live-streamed on IMF.org.
- The 2025 Annual Meetings of the World Bank Group and the IMF will take place from Monday, October 13th to Saturday, October 18th, 2025. Press registration to attend in person is open on IMF Connect.
Ukraine
- Ukrainian authorities formally requested a new IMF program; IMF Staff are actively engaged with the authorities.
- Preconditions for a new arrangement:
- Agreement on policy measures by the authorities.
- Sufficient IMF financing.
- Financing assurances from Ukraine's partners and donors.
- Once Staff-Level Agreement and financing assurances are in place, IMF Staff will present the program to the Executive Board for approval.
- Ongoing engagement:
- Managing Director met President Zelensky in New York last week to discuss Ukraine's economic situation and reform agenda.
- Further meetings expected during the Annual Meetings.
- No specific details yet on program type (EFF or Standby), financing envelope, or timelines; these remain under discussion.
Senegal
- IMF and Senegalese authorities committed to constructively resolving the misreporting case.
- Steps taken by Senegalese authorities:
- Successive audits: Inspectorate General, Court of Auditors, and an audit by a reputable international firm.
- Senegal granted IMF Staff full access to audit findings.
- IMF readiness:
- Based on comprehensive joint work and available information, IMF Staff are ready to move to program discussions and expect to start those during the Annual Meetings.
- IMF Executive Board will meet tomorrow to discuss the Senegal case; outcome expected to be communicated tomorrow.
Madagascar
- IMF expresses deep sympathy for those affected by the tragic events in Madagascar (over 30 deaths and 190 injuries noted by questioner).
- IMF is closely monitoring the situation and is committed to supporting Madagascar and its people, especially young people; aware a new government will be appointed in the coming days.
Inflation, tariffs, and data quality
- Global picture:
- Global economy showed resilience in the first half of the year; signs of a slowdown emerging.
- Inflation outlook is mixed across countries.
- Stronger recent headline inflation prints in the UK, Australia, and India.
- Inflation pressures muted in China and some countries in Asia.
- Some evidence of pass-through of tariffs to prices in the U.S., seen in core inflation.
- Firm behavior and tariffs:
- Firms have been absorbing some tariff impacts, moderating immediate pass-through to consumer prices; duration of this effect is uncertain.
- Further analysis to be covered in the next WEO (release timing noted below).
- Data quality and U.S. specifics:
- IMF supports strong data quality and transparency for policymaking.
- Monitoring potential disruptions from the U.S. government shutdown; assessment depends on duration and modalities of the shutdown.
- WEO and GFSR timing:
- Next World Economic Outlook will be released in about 10 days (noted as the Tuesday of Annual Meetings week; speaker referenced October 14th).
- Upcoming GFSR will update concerns about stretched asset price valuations and other financial stability issues.
U.S. government shutdown, asset prices, and monetary policy
- IMF monitoring the U.S. government shutdown closely; impact assessment depends on duration and modalities; IMF hopes for a compromise to keep the federal government fully funded.
- Asset prices:
- Recent GFSR editions raised concerns about stretched asset price valuations globally (including equity markets); updated assessment in the upcoming GFSR.
- Central bank independence and Fed policy:
- Independent but accountable central banks are important; independence enhances credibility while accountability matters.
- IMF view: the Fed "appropriately lowered the policy rate at its last meeting" and should continue to monitor incoming data closely as it considers future decisions.
- U.S. labor market: IMF sees softening labor market and inflation on a path toward the Fed's target but subject to upside risks.
Argentina
- IMF engagement:
- Managing Director met President Milei and Minister Caputo on the margins of the UN General Assembly.
- IMF welcomes announced support from Argentina's partners: the United States, the World Bank, and the Inter-American Development Bank; IMF is engaging closely with these partners.
- Policy priorities emphasized by IMF:
- Strengthen confidence and sustain progress in reducing inflation via an unwavering fiscal anchor, supported by consistent monetary and FX frameworks aimed at rebuilding reserves.
- Build broad political support to secure implementation of the authorities' reform agenda.
Egypt
- Macro stabilization achievements cited:
- Annual inflation declined to 12 percent in August.
- Growth strengthened to 4.4 percent in FY ’24-25.
- Fiscal outturns overperformed program targets; investor sentiment improved.
- Reviews and timing:
- Fifth and Sixth Reviews of Egypt's EFF program expected to be combined; precise timing is under discussion with authorities and expected to be undertaken this fall.
- Progress on agreed reforms is required to proceed with the reviews.
- Structural reforms IMF seeks:
- Improve the business environment and open the economy to private sector participation.
- Implement the state ownership policy and the asset divestment program to reduce the state's role and level the playing field.
- RSF-related reforms:
- Integrate climate goals into macroeconomic policy.
- Implement the renewable energy roadmap.
- Enhance climate risk monitoring in Egypt's financial sector.
Ecuador
- Program status:
- On July 18th, the Executive Board completed the Second Review of the EFF program and approved an augmentation of about U.S. $1 billion.
- Augmentation raised total program size to about U.S. $5 billion.
- Implementation and next steps:
- Authorities met all quantitative targets at end-December and end-April under the Second Review.
- IMF Staff working with authorities to determine a suitable timeline for the next review and mission dates.
- Challenges:
- Oil price volatility, tighter external financing conditions, limited near-term access to international capital markets, increasing natural disaster frequency, and unsettled security conditions.
Sri Lanka
- Program status:
- On July 1st, the Executive Board completed the Fourth Review under the EFF and provided $350 million; total IMF support reached U.S. $1.74 billion.
- Noted post-crisis rebound in growth to 5 percent in 2024.
- Revenue-to-GDP improved to 13.5 percent of GDP from 8.2 percent in 2022.
- Current mission:
- A mission is on the ground for the Fifth Review; team is in discussions with authorities and will communicate results at mission end.
Ghana
- Program status:
- On July 7th, the Executive Board completed the Fourth Review; Ghana received about U.S. $367 million then, bringing total IMF support to $2.3 billion since May 2023.
- Current mission:
- Team is on the ground in Accra for the Fifth Review; mission concludes on October 10th.
- Institutional reforms to sustain fiscal discipline post-program:
- Revamped fiscal responsibility framework including:
- A primary fiscal surplus rule requiring an annual primary fiscal surplus of at least 1.5 percent of GDP.
- A public debt target at 45 percent of GDP.
- Establishment of an independent fiscal council and improvements in public financial management.
Miscellaneous country notes
- Colombia:
- Cancellation of the Flexible Credit Line is a sovereign decision respected by the IMF.
- Colombia's international reserves remain adequate by IMF metrics; growth 1.6 percent in 2024 and 2.5 percent in the first half of 2025; inflation easing and financial system generally resilient.
- Ecuador protests and fuel subsidy reform:
- IMF supports targeted fuel subsidy reform accompanied by robust social protection to safeguard the most vulnerable.
- Generalized fuel subsidies tend to disproportionately benefit higher income groups and create vulnerabilities.
- Annual Meetings attendance:
- IMF looks forward to welcoming members who wish to attend the Annual Meetings.
Transcript of IMF Press Briefing by Ms. Julie Kozack, Director, Communications Department, October 2, 2025.