Gabon: 2015 Article IV Consultation—Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Gabon
IMF Staff Country Reports, March 18, 2016
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- Gabon: 2015 Article IV Consultation—Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Gabon
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Bibliographic details
- Published: March 18, 2016
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484300848.002
Executive summary: challenges, outlook, and risks
- Gabon’s economy is facing mounting headwinds.
- Economic activity benefited from a one-off boost in oil production in 2015, due to the introduction of new oil fields and productivity improvements.
- Overall growth is expected to be about 4 percent in 2015.
- The slowdown in non-oil economy activity continued, led by construction, transport, commerce, and services.
- The main downside risk to the outlook remains weak fiscal adjustment to sharply lower oil prices.
- In the event of weaker-than-projected performance on oil revenues or government spending, the government would be forced to substantially draw down on its deposit buffer and/or significantly increase borrowing.
Key findings and sectoral details
- Oil sector:
- One-off boost in oil production in 2015 attributed to new oil fields and productivity improvements.
- Oil production developments expected to help maintain overall growth about 4 percent in 2015.
- Non-oil sector:
- Continued slowdown in activity, led by construction, transport, commerce, and services.
- Fiscal risks:
- Sharp decline in oil prices creates a need for fiscal adjustment.
- Weak fiscal adjustment is identified as the main downside risk.
- Financing risks:
- Potential forced actions if oil revenues or government spending underperform:
- Substantial drawdown on the government's deposit buffer.
- Significant increase in borrowing.
Policy implications and considerations
- Prioritize credible fiscal adjustment to manage exposure to lower oil prices.
- Maintain or rebuild fiscal buffers to avoid large deposit drawdowns.
- Limit reliance on increased borrowing that could raise public debt vulnerabilities.
- Address non-oil sector weaknesses in construction, transport, commerce, and services to support more diversified growth.
Content in this bundle
- _cr1686 — Staff Report excerpt
- _cr1686f