Trinidad and Tobago: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Trinidad and Tobago
IMF Staff Country Reports, June 29, 2016
Source details
- Canonical URL
- Trinidad and Tobago: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Trinidad and Tobago
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Bibliographic details
- Published: June 29, 2016
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475578232.002
Economic developments
- Economic output of Trinidad and Tobago has continued to shrink.
- Energy output was 4.7 percent lower (year over year) as of September 2015, driven by ongoing maintenance and further declines in gas and oil production.
- The longstanding current account surplus turned into a 5.4 percent of GDP deficit in 2015.
- The significant terms-of-trade shock implies that the real effective exchange rate has become more overvalued.
- Subject tags in the report include: Energy pricing, Energy subsidies, Expenditure, Foreign exchange, Public debt.
Outlook and risks
- Risks to growth are tilted to the downside.
- Much of the outlook will depend on the authorities’ ability to navigate the transition to the lower energy price environment.
- Keywords highlighting fiscal and institutional considerations include: assumptions in the budget, authorities in collaboration, revenue base, shortage, headline inflation, debt, ISCR, government.
Key statistics and factual points preserved from the report
- Energy output: "4.7 percent lower (year over year) as of September 2015"
- Current account position: "a 5.4 percent of GDP deficit in 2015"
- Report series and identifiers included on the page: "IMF Staff Country Reports", "Series: Country Report No. 2016/204", "Issue: 204", "Volume: 2016", "Pages: 73", "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475578232.002", "ISBN: 9781475578232", "ISSN: 1934-7685", "Stock No: 1TTOEA2016001"
Analytical emphasis and implications for policy
- The report emphasizes the macroeconomic impact of lower energy production and prices, notably through:
- A swing from a current account surplus to a sizable deficit (5.4 percent of GDP in 2015).
- Overvaluation pressures on the real effective exchange rate following the terms-of-trade shock.
- Policy focus implied by the analysis:
- Implement measures to manage the fiscal and external adjustment associated with lower energy revenues.
- Strengthen the revenue base and expenditure management to address the deficit and public debt implications.
- Address energy-sector maintenance and production issues to stabilize output where feasible.
- Monitor and, if needed, adjust exchange rate-related policies to reflect the changed terms of trade and external position.
Trinidad and Tobago: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Trinidad and Tobago, IMF Staff Country Reports 2016, 204 (2016).