Guatemala: 2025 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Guatemala
IMF Staff Country Reports, September 12, 2025
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- Guatemala: 2025 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Guatemala
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Bibliographic details
- Published: September 12, 2025
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229024013.002
Summary and main findings
- Prudent macroeconomic management has supported a resilient economy, achieved low inflation, ample policy buffers and, for the last few years, a positive current account.
- Yet, more is needed to lift growth and reduce poverty.
- The political environment remains challenging as the standoff between the administration and the Attorney General has continued with no signs of easing, but a string of positive legislative surprises has raised near-term optimism.
- In a global environment marked by more restrictive trade and migration, policies will need to adapt to a new reality of changing trade patterns, lower remittances and lower net emigration.
Macroeconomic outcomes and policy buffers
- Low inflation and ample policy buffers have been achieved through prudent macroeconomic management.
- The current account has been positive for the last few years.
- Policy implications:
- Strengthen measures to lift growth.
- Implement targeted policies to reduce poverty.
- Maintain policy buffers to preserve macroeconomic resilience.
Political environment and near-term risks
- Ongoing standoff between the administration and the Attorney General continues with no signs of easing.
- Recent developments: a string of positive legislative surprises that have raised near-term optimism.
- Policy implications:
- Monitor political developments closely for fiscal and institutional impacts.
- Prepare contingency plans to preserve investor and public confidence if political tensions escalate.
External environment and structural shifts
- Global context: more restrictive trade and migration.
- Anticipated changes: changing trade patterns, lower remittances, and lower net emigration.
- Policy recommendations:
- Adapt trade and migration-related policies to new global realities.
- Diversify foreign exchange and growth sources to mitigate lower remittances.
- Strengthen external sector resilience given evolving trade patterns.
Subjects and keywords
- Subjects: Asset and liability management, Balance of payments, Budget planning and preparation, Central bank policy rate, Expenditure, Financial services, Liquidity management, Public financial management (PFM), Remittances
- Keywords: Budget planning and preparation, Central America, Central bank policy rate, Global, headline inflation, holdings of SDR, Liquidity management, monetary policy stance, policy buffer, Remittances, safeguards assessment policy, Western Hemisphere
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