Regional Economic Outlook Update: Middle East and Central Asia
Middle East and Central Asia, July 13, 2020
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- Published: July 13, 2020
- Series: Middle East and Central Asia
Overview and growth projection
- Growth in the region is projected at –4.7 percent in 2020, 2 percentage points lower than in April 2020.
- The region reacted to the global COVID-19 pandemic with swift and stringent measures that have saved lives, but these measures have had a large impact on domestic economic activity.
- Several countries have begun reopening in past weeks, and a recent uptick in activity has occurred; rising infection numbers may pose risks.
Main shocks and risks
- A sharp decline in oil prices together with production cuts among oil exporters.
- Disruptions in trade and tourism.
- Unusually high level of uncertainty regarding:
- the length of the pandemic,
- its impact on firm closures.
- Downside risks include social unrest and political instability.
- Potential renewed volatility in global oil markets dominates the outlook.
Policy priorities and recommendations
- Immediate priority: ensuring strong health systems.
- Support the recovery and set up resilient and well-targeted social safety nets.
- As the pandemic wanes:
- facilitate recovery by easing the reallocation of workers and resources, as needed,
- resume gradual fiscal adjustment and rebuilding policy buffers.
- Multilateral support can play a key role in helping countries surmount these shocks.
Regional Economic Outlook Update: Middle East and Central Asia — July 2020
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- July 2020 Regional Economic Outlook Update: Middle East and Central Asia