IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO): Adjusting to Lower Commodity Prices, October 2015, Table of Contents
World Economic Outlook, September 28, 2015
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- Published: September 28, 2015
- Series: World Economic Outlook
Global outlook — headline projections and risks
- Global growth for 2015 is projected at 3.1 percent.
- This is 0.3 percentage point lower than in 2014, and 0.2 percentage point below the forecasts in the July 2015 World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update.
- Prospects across the main countries and regions remain uneven:
- The recovery in advanced economies is expected to pick up slightly relative to last year.
- Activity in emerging market and developing economies is projected to slow for the fifth year in a row.
- Downside risks have risen in an environment of declining commodity prices, reduced capital flows to emerging markets, pressure on their currencies, and increasing financial market volatility—risks that are particularly elevated for emerging market and developing economies.
- Global activity is projected to gather some pace in 2016.
Chapter 1 — Recent developments and near-term prospects
- Global growth declined in the first half of 2015, reflecting a further slowdown in emerging markets and a weaker recovery in advanced economies.
- Growth is projected at 3.1 percent for 2015 as a whole, slightly lower than in 2014 and 0.2 percentage point below the July 2015 WEO Update forecast.
- Outlook by group:
- Advanced economies: the modest recovery that started in 2014 is projected to strengthen further in 2016.
- Emerging market and developing economies: projected improvement in 2016, with growth in countries in economic distress in 2015 (including Brazil, Russia, and some countries in Latin America and in the Middle East) projected to be higher next year, more than offsetting the expected gradual slowdown in China.
- Key themes and analytic content listed:
- Recent Developments and Prospects; Risks; Policies.
- Special Feature: Commodity Market Developments and Forecasts, with a Focus on Metals in the World Economy.
- Regional Projections, Boxes, Tables, Figures, and Data (including Global Activity Indicators, Global Inflation, Commodity and Oil Markets, Financial Conditions in Advanced and Emerging Market Economies, Fiscal Policies, GDP Growth Forecasts, External Sector, Capital Flows, Real Exchange Rates, Risks to the Global Outlook, Recession and Deflation Risks).
Chapter 2 — Commodity exporters: aftermath of the commodity boom
- Empirical finding: both actual and potential output move together with the commodity terms of trade, but actual output comoves twice as strongly as potential output.
- Estimated drag from the weak commodity price outlook:
- Subtracts almost 1 percentage point annually from the average rate of economic growth in commodity exporters over 2015–17 as compared with 2012–14.
- In exporters of energy commodities, the drag is estimated to be about 2¼ percentage points on average over the same period.
- The projected drag on the growth of potential output is about one-third of that for actual output.
- Chapter structure and analyses include:
- Commodity Terms-of-Trade Windfalls: A Model-Based Illustration; Five Decades of Evidence; Sectoral Reallocation during Commodity Booms; Case Studies; Conclusions.
- Annexes on data, methodology, stylized facts, local projection method, and numerous event studies and robustness checks.
Chapter 3 — Exchange rates and trade flows
- Historical evidence indicates sizable effects of exchange rate movements on export and import volumes.
- Quantified relationship:
- A 10 percent real effective depreciation in an economy’s currency is associated with a rise in real net exports of, on average, 1.5 percent of GDP, with substantial cross-country variation.
- Although effects fully materialize over a number of years, much of the adjustment occurs in the first year.
- Cross-cutting findings:
- The boost to exports from currency depreciation is largest in countries with initial economic slack and domestic financial systems operating normally.
- Some evidence suggests global value chains have weakened the relationship between exchange rates and trade in intermediate products, but the bulk of global trade remains conventional trade with little evidence of a general trend toward disconnect between exchange rates and total exports and imports.
- Analytic content and appendices include:
- Estimation of trade elasticities; Marshall-Lerner condition derivations; analysis of large depreciation episodes; pass-through and price elasticity estimates; decomposition of gross exports and imports; global value chain trade elasticities; numerous figures and statistical appendices.
Data, assumptions, and tables
- Text includes Assumptions and Conventions; What's New; Data and Conventions; Classification of Countries.
- Extensive tabular material summarized under List of Tables Part A and Part B, covering:
- Summary of World Output; Advanced and Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Real GDP, components, consumer prices; Summary of Inflation; Fiscal balances and debt; World trade volumes and prices; Current account balances; Financial account balances; Net lending and borrowing; World Medium-Term Baseline Scenario; and many region- and subgroup-specific indicators.
- Statistical appendices and downloadable PDFs provide detailed country coverage, classifications, and the underlying data conventions used in the WEO projections.
IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO): Adjusting to Lower Commodity Prices, October 2015, Table of Contents
Content in this bundle
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- Sumf
- Textf
- Textf
- 世界経済見通し 2015 年 10月
- 世界経済見通し 2015年10月 -- 要旨
- 世界経済見通し 2015年10月 -- 要旨
- Figure 1_10
- Figure 1_11
- Figure 1_12
- Figure 1_13
- Figure 1_14
- Figure 1_15
- Figure 1_01
- BoxFig1_2_1
- BoxFig1_2_2
- Figure 1_02
- BoxFig1_3_1
- Figure 1_03
- Figure 1_04
- Figure 1_05
- Figure 1_06
- Figure 1_07
- Figure 1_08
- Figure 1_09
- Scenario Figure 1
- Fig_1_sf_01_01
- Fig_1_sf_01_02
- Fig_1_sf_01
- Fig_1_sf_02
- Fig_1_sf_03
- Fig_1_sf_04
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- Fig_1_sf_06
- Fig_1_sf_07
- Fig_1_sf_08
- FIG2_10
- FIG2_11
- FIG2_12
- FIG2_13
- FIG2_14
- FIG2_15
- FIG2_16
- FIG2_17
- FIG2_01
- Box_FIG2_2_1
- FIG2_02
- Box_FIG2_3_1
- Box_FIG2_3_2
- Box_FIG2_3_3
- FIG2_03
- Box_FIG2_4_1
- Box_FIG2_4_2
- Box_FIG2_4_3
- FIG2_04
- FIG2_05
- FIG2_06
- FIG2_07
- FIG2_08
- FIG2_09
- Annex_FIG2_2_1
- Annex_FIG2_3_1
- Annex_FIG2_3_2
- Fig3_10
- Fig3_11
- BOX3_1_02
- Fig3_01
- BOX3_2_01
- BOX3_2_02
- Fig3_02
- BOX3_3_01
- BOX3_3_02
- BOX3_3_03
- Fig3_03
- Fig3_04
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- Fig3_06
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- Fig3_08
- Fig3_09
- Annex3_2_1
- Annex3_2_2
- Annex3_4_1
- Annex3_4_2
- Annex3_4_3
- fig3_annex4_4
- 2sumpdf
- Press Points for Chapter 3: Exchange Rates and Trade: Disconnected?
- World Economic Outlook: "Adjusting to Lower Commodity Prices", October 2015; Annex
- World Economic Outlook, October 2015; Chapter 1. Recent Developments and Prospects
- C2pdf
- World Economic Outlook, October 2015, Chapter 3: Exchange Rates and Trade FLows: Disconnected?
- World Economic Outlook: "Adjusting to Lower Commodity Prices", October 2015; Executive Summary
- World Economic Outlook: "Adjusting to Lower Commodity Prices", October 2015; Foreword
- Assumptions and Conventions
- Further Information and Data
- World Economic Outlook: "Adjusting to Lower Commodity Prices", October 2015; Preface
- _seltoppdf
- World Economic Outlook: "Adjusting to Lower Commodity Prices", October 2015; Statistical Appendix
- _sum
- World Economic Outlook: "Adjusting to Lower Commodity Prices", October 2015; Tables Part A
- World Economic Outlook: "Adjusting to Lower Commodity Prices", October 2015; Tables Part B
- World Economic Outlook, October 2015: Adjusting to Lower Commodity Prices
- World Economic Outlook, October 2015: Adjusting to Lower Commodity Prices
- Тезисы для прессы по главам 2 и 3 - Перспективы развития мировой экономики, октябрь 2015 года
- Перспективы развития мировой экономики, октябрь 2015 года
- Перспективы развития мировой экономики, октябрь 2015 года
- Sums
- Texts
- Texts
- Fig1 1 1
- Fig1 1 2
- Fig1 1
- Fig1 10
- Fig1 11
- fig1_12 — Dataset overview
- Fig1 13
- fig1_14
- Fig1 15
- Fig1 2 1
- Fig1 2 2
- Fig1 2
- Fig1 3 1
- Fig1 3
- Fig1 4
- Fig1 5
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- Fig1 7
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- Fig1 9
- Fig1 S 1
- Fig1 Sf 1 1
- Fig1 Sf 1 2
- Fig1 Sf 1
- Fig1 Sf 2
- Fig1 Sf 3
- Fig1 Sf 4
- Fig1 Sf 5
- Fig1 Sf 6
- Fig1 Sf 7
- Fig1 Sf 8
- Fig2 1 1
- Fig2 1
- Fig2 10
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- Fig2 12
- Fig2 13
- Fig2 14
- Fig2 15
- Fig2 16
- Fig2 17
- Fig2 2 1
- Fig2 2
- Fig2 3 1
- Fig2 3 2
- Fig2 3 3
- Fig2 3
- Fig2 4 1
- Fig2 4 2
- Fig2 4 3
- Fig2 4
- Fig2 5
- Fig2 6
- Fig2 7
- Fig2 8
- Fig2 9
- Fig2 Annex2 1
- Fig2 Annex3 1
- dataset overview
- Fig3 1 1
- Fig3 1 2
- Figure 3.1. Recent Exchange Rate Movements in Historical Perspective
- Fig3 10
- Fig3 11
- Figure 3.2.1. Real Effective Exchange Rate Weights Assigned to China and Germany
- Figure 3.2.2. Comparison of Conventional and Input-Output Real Effective Exchange Rates
- Figure 3.2. Long-Term Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Price Elasticities
- Figure 3.3.1 — Japan: Exchange Rate and Exports
- Figure 3.3.2. Exchange Rate, Profits, and Pass-Through
- Figure 3.3.3. Offshoring and Exports
- Figure 3.3. Effect of a 10 Percent Real Effective Depreciation on Real Net Exports
- Figure 3.4. Export Dynamics Following Large Exchange Rate Depreciations
- Fig3 5
- Fig3 6
- Figure 3.7. Evolution of Global Value Chains
- Figure 3.8. Trade Elasticities over Time in Different Regions
- Figure 3.9. Ratios of Exports and Imports to GDP, 1990�2014
- Fig3 Annex2 1
- Annex Figure 3.2.2. Income Elasticities of Imports and Exports
- Annex Figure 3.4.1. Export Dynamics Following Large Exchange Rate Depreciations
- dataset overview
- Annex Figure 3.4.3. Export Dynamics Following Laeven and Valencia 2013 Currency Crises
- Annex 3.4.4.Export Dynamics Following Large Exchange Rate Depreciations: Role of Initial Output Gap
