World Economic Outlook Database April 2004
World Economic Outlook
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About the WEO Database and Exercise
- The World Economic Outlook (WEO) database is created during the biannual WEO exercise, which begins in January and June and results in the April and September WEO publication.
- Selected series from the WEO publication are released on the day of the WEO press conference.
- The WEO exercise is coordinated by the World Economic Studies Division in the Research Department.
- Projections and analysis in the WEO are an integral element of the IMF's surveillance of economic development and policies in member countries and of the global economic system.
- WEO projections are prepared by IMF country economists on the basis of internationally consistent assumptions about world economic activity, exchange rates, and conditions in international financial and commodity markets.
- Advanced economies and the largest developing countries, which account for 90 percent of world output, provide a full set of projections for each WEO exercise.
- Most smaller countries provide updates of key variables for each WEO exercise and a full set of projections at the time of the IMF's regular Article IV consultations, unless world developments necessitate more frequent updates.
Key Changes and Revisions in April 2004
- The former three-way split of the world (advanced economies, developing countries, and countries in transition) was revised to classify countries into two categories: “advanced economies” and “other emerging market and developing countries.”
- The analytical groups now comprise all countries from the former developing and transition groups.
- Turkey and Malta are now included in Central and Eastern Europe.
- Timor-Leste, Dem. Rep. of is now included in the WEO database.
- Current account balance projections are now included for all countries.
- The purchasing power parity (PPP) weights have been updated using new price surveys with the new benchmark year of 2000.
Data Conventions and Units
- Domestic economy series are expressed in billions of national currency units.
- External accounts series are expressed in billions of U.S. dollars.
- Missing data are indicated by "N/A". Unavailable data are indicated by a blank.
- Series expressed in index form are based on 2000=100 except for the GDP deflator, which is expressed in the base year of each country's national accounts.
- End dates of country-specific series correspond to those appearing in the WEO publication.
- Not all data appearing in the WEO publication are disseminated through the WEO database website; additional data may be released over time.
Data Coverage: Major Series and Definitions
- Gross Domestic Product, Constant Prices (national currency and annual percent change)
- Real GDP is expressed in billions of national currency units; the base year is country-specific.
- Annual percentages of constant price GDP are year-on-year changes.
- Data through 1991 apply to west Germany only.
- For developing countries, figures for recent years are IMF staff estimates. Data for some countries are for fiscal years.
- For a number of central and eastern European and CIS countries data refer to real net material product (NMP) or are estimates based on NMP.
- Group aggregates are available in growth rate form only because aggregates are created from percent changes rather than levels.
- Chain-weighted methodology is used for Australia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Canada, Czech Republic, euro area, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States, with country-specific historical exceptions listed in the documentation.
- The percent changes in 2002 for Cameroon are calculated over a period of 18 months, reflecting a change in the fiscal year cycle (from July-June to January-December).
- Gross Domestic Product, Current Prices (national currency and U.S. dollars)
- GDP in national currency expressed in billions; U.S. dollar values are based on exchange rate projections for the group of other emerging market and developing countries and on WEO assumptions for advanced economies.
- Per Capita GDP (constant and current prices; national currency and U.S. dollars)
- Derived by dividing GDP by total population; current U.S. dollar per capita figures are computed by converting GDP to U.S. dollars first, then dividing by population.
- GDP Deflator (index and annual percent change)
- Derived by dividing current price GDP by constant price GDP; index expressed in the base year of each country's national accounts.
- Output Gap (ratio to potential GDP)
- For advanced economies: (actual GDP − potential GDP) as percent of potential GDP. Estimates are subject to significant uncertainty.
- Savings and Investment (percent of GDP)
- Based on national accounts statistics; country group composites are calculated as the sum of U.S. dollar values for relevant countries.
- GDP Based on Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) Valuation (U.S. dollars, shares of world total, per capita, and implied exchange rates)
- WEO weights created from primary sources for generating country group composites; PPP primary sources include OECD, World Bank, and Penn World Tables. See WEO boxes for discussion of PPP measurement and revisions.
- Inflation (consumer prices; index and annual percent change)
- Data are averages for the year (not end-of-period); index based on 2000=100.
- Euro area countries and the United Kingdom: based on Eurostat's harmonized index of consumer prices.
- New Zealand: excluding interest rate components.
- Data for Islamic Republic of Iran refer to fiscal year.
- Unemployment Rate (percent)
- U.S. projections adjusted to reflect survey techniques adopted by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics in January 1994.
- General Government Fiscal Balances and Structural Balances (national currency and ratio to GDP or potential GDP)
- Data are on a national income accounts basis; structural balances defined as actual deficit/surplus less cyclical effects.
- Country-specific adjustments and exceptions are documented (examples: Australia, Austria, France, Ireland, Korea, New Zealand, Norway).
- Data exclude specified one-off receipts from sale of mobile telephone licenses and sizable asset transactions (examples with exact percent of GDP noted: 2.5 percent of GDP in 2000 for Germany; 0.1 percent of GDP in 2001 and 2002 for France; 1.2 percent of GDP in 2000 for Italy; 0.1 percent of GDP in 2000 for Spain; 0.7 percent of GDP in 2000 for the Netherlands; 0.2 percent of GDP in 2001 for Belgium; 0.4 percent of GDP in 2000 for Austria; 0.3 percent of GDP in 2000 for Portugal; 0.2 percent of GDP in 2002 for Ireland; and 0.5 percent of GDP for France in 2005).
- General Government Gross and Net Debt (national currency and ratio to GDP)
- Net debt comprises year-end gross liabilities minus all government assets; data are consolidated to avoid double counting.
- Germany data before 1990 refer to west Germany; beginning in 1995 Treuhandanstalt debt equivalent to 8 percent of GDP was taken over by general government, with associated debt service of ½ to 1 percent of GDP.
- Net Capital Flows (U.S. dollars)
- Net private capital flows comprise net direct investment, net portfolio flows, and other long- and short-term net investment flows including official and private borrowing.
- The table “Emerging Market and Developing Countries: Net Capital Flows” uses a composition differing from standard WEO groups: “Total Emerging Markets” includes developing countries, Hong Kong SAR, Israel, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan Province of China.
- “Emerging Asia”: includes Hong Kong SAR, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan Province of China.
- “Middle East”: includes Israel.
- Russia: historical data have been revised to reflect cumulative data revisions and resolution of interpretation issues.
- Emerging Asia: “private capital flows, net” excludes the effects of the recapitalization of two large commercial banks in China with foreign reserves of the Bank of China (US$45 billion); net private capital flows to emerging Asia in 2003 were US$107.0 billion while other private capital flows net to the region amounted to US$35.0 billion.
- External Debt and Debt Service (U.S. dollars and percent of U.S. dollar GDP and exports)
- External debt expressed in billions of U.S. dollars and reflects total external debt at year end for the group of other emerging market and developing countries only.
- Total debt includes all short- and long-term debt; debt-service payments refer to actual interest plus amortization payments.
- Current Account Balance (U.S. dollars and percent of U.S. dollar GDP)
- Based on the methodology of the 5th edition of the IMF Balance of Payments Manual (1993). The world total reflects errors, omissions, asymmetries, and exclusions of international organizations and some countries.
- Euro area: calculated as sum of balances of individual euro area countries.
- Trade Volumes and Terms of Trade (annual percent change)
- Trade volume series represent trade values deflated by unit value; terms of trade equal export unit value divided by import unit value. Base year 2000.
- Average Petroleum Spot Price (APSP)
- APSP is an equally weighted average of three crude oil spot prices: West Texas Intermediate (“WTI”), Dated Brent (“Brent”), and Dubai Fateh (“Dubai”). Typical inequality: WTI > Brent > Dubai.
- London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR, percent)
- Six-month rate for the United States and Japan; three-month rate for the euro area.
WEO Groups, Aggregates, and Composite Conventions
- The WEO divides the world into two major country groups: “advanced economies” and “other emerging market and developing countries.”
- Classification is not based on strict criteria but evolved to facilitate analysis.
- A few countries are not included in these groups (examples: Cuba and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea are not IMF members; San Marino and Aruba are IMF members but databases have not been completed).
- Composite data are either sums or weighted averages of individual country data; multiyear growth rates are compound annual rates unless otherwise indicated.
- Arithmetically weighted averages are used for all data except inflation and money growth for the developing and transition country groups, for which geometric averages are used.
- Weighting conventions:
- Exchange rates, interest rates, and growth rates of monetary aggregates: weighted by GDP converted to U.S. dollars at market exchange rates (averaged over the preceding three years) as a share of group GDP.
- Domestic economy data (growth rates or ratios): weighted by GDP valued at PPPs as a share of total world or group GDP.
- Euro area domestic economy composites: aggregates of national source data using weights based on 1995 ECU exchange rates (12 member countries throughout the entire period unless otherwise noted).
- Composite unemployment rates and employment growth: weighted by labor force as a share of group labor force.
- External economy composites: sums of individual country data after conversion to U.S. dollars at average market exchange rates for balance of payments data and end-of-year market exchange rates for non-U.S.-dollar debt.
- Composites of foreign trade volume and price changes: arithmetic averages of percentage changes weighted by U.S. dollar value of exports or imports as a share of total world or group exports or imports (in the preceding year).
Differences Compared with International Financial Statistics
- WEO data are provided to the Research Department at the time of the WEO exercise and are not gathered on a continual basis.
- Historical data and projections in the WEO are based on information gathered by IMF country economists during missions and ongoing analysis; projections are staff estimates.
- International Financial Statistics (IFS) are gathered as part of an ongoing data collection effort from member country statistical agencies.
- Differences may arise between IFS and WEO because of data collection techniques, methodological issues, focus, and timing.
Queries and Contact
- Queries about the WEO database should be sent to the e-mail address weo@imf.org.