IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO)-- April 2004
World Economic Outlook, April 14, 2004
Source details
- Canonical URL
- IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO)-- April 2004
Other formats
Bibliographic details
- Published: April 14, 2004
- Series: World Economic Outlook
Overview
- The April 2004 World Economic Outlook (WEO) provides IMF staff analysis and projections of economic developments at the global level, in major country groups, and in many individual countries.
- It focuses on major economic policy issues and analysis of economic developments and prospects and is usually prepared twice a year as documentation for meetings of the International Monetary and Financial Committee and for the IMF's global surveillance activities.
- Associated materials on the landing page include:
- Transcript of the World Economic Outlook Press Conference, April 21, 2004.
- Transcript of a Teleconference Call on the World Economic Outlook Analytic Chapters, April 14, 2004.
- A Survey by the Staff of the International Monetary Fund, April 2004.
Major analytic chapters and themes
- Chapter I — Economic Prospects and Policy Issues (449 kb pdf file)
- Regional and country discussions include:
- North America: Growth in the United States Surges; In Canada It Slows
- Euro Area: Subdued Recovery, With Domestic Demand Still Uneven
- Japan: Is a Sustained Recovery Finally Under Way?
- Latin America: Is There a Tension Between Tackling Social Issues and Reducing High Public Debt?
- Emerging Asia: With Recovery Taking Hold, Scope for Greater Exchange Rate Flexibility
- EU Accession Countries: External Imbalances Need to Be Addressed
- Commonwealth of Independent States: Managing the Challenges of Remonetization
- Middle East: Improved Prospects, but Much Depends on Geopolitical Uncertainties and Security Situation
- Africa: The Struggle to Reduce Poverty
- Appendix 1.1: Commodity Markets
- Boxes in Chapter I include topics such as The Effects of a Falling Dollar; Housing Markets in Industrial Countries; Risks to the Multilateral Trading System; Is Emerging Asia Becoming an Engine of World Growth?; What Works in Africa.
- Chapter II — The Global Implications of the U.S. Fiscal Deficit and of China's Growth (242 kb pdf file)
- Analytic questions include:
- How Will the U.S. Budget Deficit Affect the Rest of the World?
- China's Emergence and Its Impact on the Global Economy
- Boxes include How Do U.S. Interest and Exchange Rates Affect Emerging Markets' Balance Sheets?; The Effects of Tax Cuts in a Global Fiscal Model; Can China Sustain Its Rapid Output Growth?; Quantifying the International Impact of China's WTO Accession.
- Chapter III — Fostering Structural Reforms in Industrial Countries
- Subsections include:
- Two Decades of Structural Reforms in Industrial Countries: An Overview
- Determinants of Structural Reforms
- Cost-Benefit Dynamics of Reforms
- Reform Experience and Implications for Reform Design
- Appendices: Appendix 3.1 Structural Policy Indicators; Appendix 3.2 Determinants of Reforms: Econometric Methods; Appendix 3.3 Cost-Benefit Dynamics of Reforms
- Boxes examine country experiences (New Zealand, United Kingdom, The Netherlands) and European integration.
- Chapter IV — Are Credit Booms in Emerging Markets a Concern? (137 kb pdf file)
- Core questions:
- What Are Credit Booms and How Are They Propagated?
- What Do Credit Booms Look Like?
- Conclusion
- Boxes and figures analyze credit booms, financial sector development, and implications for growth and welfare.
- Supporting materials:
- Annex: Summing Up by the Acting Chair (60 kb pdf file)
- Statistical Appendix (396 kb pdf file) covering Assumptions; What's New; Data and Conventions; Classification of Countries; extensive tables and figures.
Key statistics, tables, and figures (as listed)
- Table sets and topics include:
- Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections
- Emerging Market and Developing Countries: Net Capital Flows
- Advanced Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Unemployment
- Major Advanced Economies: General Government Fiscal Balances and Debt
- Selected Economies: Current Account Positions
- Numerous regional and country tables (e.g., 1.6 through 1.12 covering Western Hemisphere, Asian, EU Accession, Commonwealth of Independent States, Middle Eastern, and African countries)
- Tables on Nonenergy Commodity Prices, Volatility and Correlation of Spot and Futures Prices, Forecast Performance
- Simulation and model tables including MULTIMOD Alternative Scenarios and projections related to China's integration and sectoral impacts up to 2020
- Figures and graphical topics include:
- Global Indicators; Current and Forward-Looking Indicators; G-7: The Differing Nature of the Recovery
- Global Exchange Rate Developments; Developments in Mature Financial Markets; Emerging Market Financial Conditions
- Fiscal and Monetary Easing in the Major Advanced Countries; Global Outlook; United States: Growth, Consumption, and Personal Incomes
- Regional and sectoral figures such as Unemployment, Income Inequality, and Poverty in Latin America; Emerging Asia: Foreign Reserve Accumulation; Sub-Saharan Africa: Growth and Poverty; Oil Prices, Futures, and Production; Semiconductor Markets
- Scenario figures: Main Simulation Scenarios; GDP in Alternative Scenarios; Output and Trade During Periods of Rapid Integration; China's Exports and Imports
Analytic tools, empirical work, and case studies
- Econometric analyses and determinants of reforms:
- Correlation matrices and econometric summaries for structural policy indicators
- Determinants of Product and Labor Reforms; Determinants of Trade and Tax Reforms; Determinants of Financial Reforms
- Impact assessments: Impact of Structural Reforms on Log Real Per Capita GDP; Impact of Structural Reforms on Unemployment
- An Empirical Model of Reforms: Convergence Toward a Target
- Credit and financial analysis:
- Credit, Capital Inflows, and Financial Liberalization
- Credit Booms Versus Episodes of Rapid Credit Growth
- Emerging Market Credit Booms, 1970-2002
- Figures on Credit Booms in Emerging Markets and selected macroeconomic, financial, and microeconomic variables during credit booms
Accessibility and ancillary information
- The page references PDF files for chapters and annexes with indicated file sizes: 86 kb, 449 kb, 242 kb, 137 kb, 60 kb, and 396 kb.
- Users are advised to use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view PDF files.
- Additional site features: Research at the IMF; Email notification sign-up and profile modification options.
IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO)-- April 2004
Content in this bundle
- IMF April 2004 World Economic Outlook -- Chapter I: Box 1.2
- IMF April 2004 World Economic Outlook -- Chapter I: Box 1.4A
- IMF April 2004 World Economic Outlook -- Chapter I: Box 1.4B
- IMF April 2004 World Economic Outlook -- Chapter I: Figure 1.10
- IMF April 2004 World Economic Outlook -- Chapter I: Figure 1.11
- IMF April 2004 World Economic Outlook -- Chapter I: Figure 1.12
- IMF April 2004 World Economic Outlook -- Chapter I: Figure 1.13
- IMF April 2004 World Economic Outlook -- Chapter I: Figure 1.14
- IMF April 2004 World Economic Outlook -- Chapter I: Figure 1.15
- IMF April 2004 World Economic Outlook -- Chapter I: Figure 1.16
- IMF April 2004 World Economic Outlook -- Chapter I: Figure 1.17
- IMF April 2004 World Economic Outlook -- Chapter I: Figure 1.18
- IMF April 2004 World Economic Outlook -- Chapter I: Figure 1.19
- IMF April 2004 World Economic Outlook -- Chapter I: Figure 1.1
- IMF April 2004 World Economic Outlook -- Chapter I: Figure 1.20
- IMF April 2004 World Economic Outlook -- Chapter I: Figure 1.21
- IMF April 2004 World Economic Outlook -- Chapter I: Figure 1.22
- IMF April 2004 World Economic Outlook -- Chapter I: Figure 1.2
- IMF April 2004 World Economic Outlook -- Chapter I: Figure 1.3
- IMF April 2004 World Economic Outlook -- Chapter I: Figure 1.4
- IMF April 2004 World Economic Outlook -- Chapter I: Figure 1.5
- IMF April 2004 World Economic Outlook -- Chapter I: Figure 1.6
- IMF April 2004 World Economic Outlook -- Chapter I: Figure 1.7
- IMF April 2004 World Economic Outlook -- Chapter I: Figure 1.8
- IMF April 2004 World Economic Outlook -- Chapter I: Figure 1.9
- IMF April 2004 World Economic Outlook -- Chapter II: Box 2.1
- IMF April 2004 World Economic Outlook -- Chapter II: Box 2.2
- IMF April 2004 World Economic Outlook -- Chapter II: Figure 2.10
- IMF April 2004 World Economic Outlook -- Chapter II: Figure 2.1
- IMF April 2004 World Economic Outlook -- Chapter II: Figure 2.2
- IMF April 2004 World Economic Outlook -- Chapter II: Figure 2.3
- IMF April 2004 World Economic Outlook -- Chapter II: Figure 2.4A
- IMF April 2004 World Economic Outlook -- Chapter II: Figure 2.4B
- IMF April 2004 World Economic Outlook -- Chapter II: Figure 2.5
- IMF April 2004 World Economic Outlook -- Chapter II: Figure 2.6
- IMF April 2004 World Economic Outlook -- Chapter II: Figure 2.7
- IMF April 2004 World Economic Outlook -- Chapter II: Figure 2.8
- IMF April 2004 World Economic Outlook -- Chapter II: Figure 2.9
- IMF April 2004 World Economic Outlook -- Chapter III: Box 3.3
- IMF April 2004 World Economic Outlook -- Chapter III: Box 3.4
- IMF April 2004 World Economic Outlook -- Chapter III: Figure 3.10
- IMF April 2004 World Economic Outlook -- Chapter III: Figure 3.11
- IMF April 2004 World Economic Outlook -- Chapter III: Figure 3.1
- IMF April 2004 World Economic Outlook -- Chapter III: Figure 3.2
- IMF April 2004 World Economic Outlook -- Chapter III: Figure 3.3A
- IMF April 2004 World Economic Outlook -- Chapter III: Figure 3.3B
- IMF April 2004 World Economic Outlook -- Chapter III: Figure 3.4
- IMF April 2004 World Economic Outlook -- Chapter III: Figure 3.5
- IMF April 2004 World Economic Outlook -- Chapter III: Figure 3.6
- IMF April 2004 World Economic Outlook -- Chapter III: Figure 3.7
- IMF April 2004 World Economic Outlook -- Chapter III: Figure 3.8
- IMF April 2004 World Economic Outlook -- Chapter III: Figure 3.9
- IMF April 2004 World Economic Outlook -- Chapter IV: Figure 4.1
- IMF April 2004 World Economic Outlook -- Chapter IV: Figure 4.2
- IMF April 2004 World Economic Outlook -- Chapter IV: Figure 4.3
- IMF April 2004 World Economic Outlook -- Chapter IV: Figure 4.4
- IMF April 2004 World Economic Outlook -- Chapter IV: Figure 4.5
- IMF April 2004 World Economic Outlook -- Chapter IV: Figure 4.6
- IMF April 2004 World Economic Outlook -- Chapter IV: Figure 4.7
- IMF April 2004 World Economic Outlook -- Chapter IV: Figure 4.8
- World Economic Outlook, April 2004--Annex
- World Economic Outlook, April 2004--Statistical Appendix
- World Economic Outlook, April 2004--Chapter 1
- World Economic Outlook, April 2004--Chapter 2
- World Economic Outlook, April 2004--Chapter 3
- World Economic Outlook, April 2004--Chapter 4
- WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK April 2004, Advancing Structural Reforms
- Real House Prices and Disposable Income
- Emerging Asia: Exports
- Import Value Growth
- Figure 1.1. Global Indicators
- Dataset overview: fig1-10
- Figure 1.11. Japan: How Does the Current Recovery Compare With the Past?
- Figure 1.12. Unemployment, Income Inequality, and Poverty in Latin America
- Fig1 13
- Fig1 14
- Figure 1.15. Commonwealth of Independent States: Remonetization and Credit Growth
- Figure 1.16. Middle East: Reduction in Uncertainties Boosts Prospects
- Figure 1.17. Sub-Saharan Africa: Growth and Poverty
- Fig1 18
- Figure 1.19. Oil Inventories
- Figure 1.2. Current and Forward-Looking Indicators
- Figure 1.20. Nonenergy Commodities
- Figure 1.21. Semiconductor Markets
- Figure 1.22. Spot and Futures Prices
- Figure 1.3. G-7: The Differing Nature of the Recovery
- Figure 1.4. Global Exchange Rate Developments
- Figure 1.5. Developments in Mature Financial Markets
- Figure 1.6. Emerging Market Financial Conditions
- Figure 1.7. Fiscal and Monetary Easing in the Major Advanced Countries
- Figure 1.8. Global Outlook
- Figure 1.9. United States: Growth, Consumption, and Personal Incomes
- Box 2.1. Emerging Markets: Output, Leverage, and Risk Premium
- Box 2.2. One-Percentage-Point of GDP Tax Cut in the United States for 10 years
- Figure 2.1. United States: Fiscal Balance
- Figure 2.10. Required Structural Adjustment
- Figure 2.2. United States: Fiscal Risks
- Figure 2.3. Structural Fiscal Balance of Advanced Countries
- Figure 2.4. Main Simulation Scenarios
- fig2-4b
- Figure 2.5. GDP in Alternative Scenarios
- Fig2 6
- Fig2-7 — Dataset overview
- Content unit: fig2-8
- Fig2 9
- Box 3.3. Netherlands: Labor Market Indicators
- Box3 4
- Figure 3.1. Cumulative Reform Efforts Across Sectors
- Figure 3.10. Response of Unemployment to a One-Standard-Deviation Increase in Reform Indicators
- Figure 3.2. Regulatory Regimes in 1975 and 2000 Across Countries
- Figure 3.3. Structural Reforms and Initial Structural Conditions
- Figure 3.3 Concluded
- Figure 3.4. Cross-Border Spillovers
- Figure 3.5. Openness to Trade and Reforms
- Figure 3.6. More Reforms in Bad Times?
- Figure 3.7. Fiscal Adjustment and "Difficult" Reforms
- Fig3-8: Product and Labor Market Reforms
- Fig3 9
- Figure 4.1. Financial Deepening and Development
- Figure 4.2. Credit Booms Versus Episodes of Rapid Credit Growth
- Figure 4.3. Emerging Market Credit Booms, 1970�2002
- Figure 4.4. Credit Booms in Emerging Markets
- Figure 4.5. Selected Macroeconomic Variables During Credit Booms
- Figure 4.6. Selected Financial Variables During Credit Booms
- Figure 4.7. Selected Microeconomic Variables of the Non-Tradable Corporate Sector
- Figure 4.8. Corporate Leverage During a Credit Boom
References
- Transcript
- Transcript
- [Other
issues of the World Economic Outlook](https://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=29)