A World Trade Leading Index (WTLI)

ByKarim Barhoumi, Laurent Ferrara

January 26, 2015

Download PDF

More Formats on IMF eLibrary

Order a Print Copy

More formats on IMF eLibrary

Order a Print Copy

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

This paper develops a new monthly World Trade Leading Indicator (WTLI) that relies on nonparametric and parametric approaches. Compared to the CPB World Trade Monitor’s benchmark indicator for global trade the WTLI captures turning points in global trade with an average lead between 2 and 3 months. We also show that this cyclical indicator is able to track the annual growth rate in global trade, suggesting that the recent slowdown is due in part to certain cyclical factors. This new tool can provide policy makers with valuable foresight into the future direction of economic activity by tracking world trade more efficiently.

Subject: Business cycles, Cyclical indicators, Economic growth

Keywords: Business cycles, CPB index, Cyclical indicators, factor models., Global, growth rate, index tracks trade cycles, leading indicators, World trade, World Trade Leading Index factor, WP, WTLI version

Pages:
14
Volume:
2015
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498307543.001
Issue:
020
Series:
Working Paper No. 2015/020
Stock No:
WPIEA2015020
ISBN:
9781498307543
ISSN:
1018-5941

IMF’s Work

RESOURCES

TOPICS

Flagship Publications

Other Publications

IMF reports and publications by country

Regional Offices

All News

See Also

For Journalists

Press Center

RESOURCES

FLAGSHIPS

KEY SERIES

IMF NOTES

Loading component...

IMF Working Papers