External Sustainability of Oil-Producing Sub-Saharan African Countries
IMF Working Papers, August 1, 2011
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Robert C York, Misa Takebe
- Published: August 1, 2011
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781463902872.001
Summary
- Focus: Assess external sustainability for oil-producing sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, an aspect often omitted in IMF empirical work that typically focuses on fiscal sustainability and the "optimal" non-oil primary fiscal deficit.
- Objective: Provide a range of estimates for the long-run external current external account balance for each SSA oil-producing country using three widely used IMF methodologies.
- Scope: Apply the three models to eight countries in the subregion using similar simplifying assumptions to enable comparability:
- Angola
- Cameroon
- Chad
- Côte d'Ivoire
- Equatorial Guinea
- Gabon
- Nigeria
- Republic of Congo
Methodology
- Approaches: The paper uses three widely used methodologies in the IMF to estimate the long-run external current external account balance.
- Comparative design: Models are applied under similar simplifying assumptions to ensure the same analytical lens across the eight countries.
- Rationale: External sustainability is particularly important for SSA oil producers operating under a fixed exchange rate regime.
Key Content and Themes
- Emphasis on external current account balance as the metric for long-run external sustainability.
- Links to broader IMF empirical literature on oil-producing countries, noting that recent papers extended methodologies but did not focus on SSA.
- Subject classifications: Balance of payments, Commodities, Consumption, Current account, Current account balance, National accounts, Oil, Oil prices, Prices.