Climate and Cross-Border Migration

IMF Working Papers, December 8, 2023

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The analysis explores: (i) the relative importance of origin-country vs destination-country factors in explaining migration patterns; (ii) importance of climate disasters as driver of cross-border migration; and (iii) the importance of climate-driven migration on the overall impact of climate on macroeconomic outcomes.
Main findings:
- Both origin-country and destination-country contribute to explaining migration outflows from EMDEs, although only the global shocks seem important for advanced economies.
- Climate disasters are important for explaining the origin-country migration shocks in LICs and EMDEs, are especially relevant for smaller countries, and lead to migration of both genders, albeit relatively more for males out of LICs.
- An important portion of climate’s overall impact on economic outcomes—especially agricultural GDP, remittances, and inequality—is captured via climate-driven migration.
- Higher investment in climate-resilient infrastructure can reduce the impact of climate on cross-border migration, and thereby, result in potentially important economic gains.

Emphasizes the intersection of migration and climate change as key forces shaping economic outlooks.
Highlights the need to account for both origin- and destination-country factors when analyzing migration from EMDEs.
Identifies climate disasters as a significant driver of origin-country migration shocks in LICs and EMDEs, with policy relevance for smaller countries and gender-differentiated migration responses.
Suggests that investments in climate-resilient infrastructure could mitigate climate-driven migration and yield economic benefits, particularly through effects on agricultural GDP, remittances, and inequality.