Advancing India’s Structural Transformation and Catch-up to the Technology Frontier
IMF Working Papers, July 9, 2024
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Cristian Alonso, Margaux MacDonald
- Published: July 9, 2024
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400281617.001
Summary of findings: recent growth and structural change
- Economic activity has shifted from agriculture to services.
- Agriculture remains the predominant employer.
- Catch up to the technological frontier has been uneven across sectors.
- Some Indian firms are already operating at the technological frontier; these strong performers tend to be large firms.
Sectoral detail and productivity patterns
- Limited progress in agriculture in terms of catch up to the technological frontier.
- Construction and trade show limited progress in technological catch up, despite having grown the most in terms of employment.
- Services have expanded in economic activity relative to agriculture.
India’s employment challenge and projections
- India needs to create between 143-324 million jobs by 2050.
- Creating these jobs and shifting workers toward more dynamic sectors could boost GDP growth by 0.2-0.5 percentage points.
Policy implications and recommendations
- Structural reforms can help India create high-quality jobs and accelerate growth.
- Policies that support firm dynamism and allow more firms to reach the technological frontier—particularly beyond current large-firm frontier performers—would support productivity and employment outcomes.
Publication and metadata
- Authors: Cristian Alonso, Margaux MacDonald
- Publication date: July 9, 2024
- Series: IMF Working Papers, Working Paper No. 2024/138
- Pages: 33
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400281617.001
- ISBN: 9798400281617
- ISSN: 1018-5941
- Subjects: Agricultural sector, Economic sectors, Employment, Labor, Labor productivity, Production, Productivity
- Keywords: Agricultural sector, Economywide Production, Employment, frontier employment, Global, growth decomposition, IMF staff estimate, India's employment challenge, industry level, Labor Productivity, Potential Output, Productivity, Structural Transformation, Technological Frontier., technology frontier
Source: Advancing India’s Structural Transformation and Catch-up to the Technology Frontier, IMF Working Papers (2024/138), Cristian Alonso and Margaux MacDonald, July 9, 2024.
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