Decrypting Crypto: How to Estimate International Stablecoin Flows
IMF Working Papers, July 11, 2025
Source details
- Canonical URL
- Decrypting Crypto: How to Estimate International Stablecoin Flows
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Marco Reuter
- Published: July 11, 2025
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229016186.001
Methodology
- Presents a novel methodology leveraging a combination of AI and machine learning to estimate the geographic distribution of international stablecoin flows.
- Designed to overcome the “anonymity” of crypto assets.
Data scope
- Analyzes 2024 stablecoin transactions totaling $2 trillion.
Key findings
- Geographic distribution of stablecoin flows:
- North America: $633bn
- Asia and Pacific: $519bn
- Relative to GDP, stablecoin flows are most significant in:
- Latin America and the Caribbean: 7.7%
- Africa and the Middle East: 6.7%
- Net flow dynamics:
- North America exhibits net outflows of stablecoins.
- Evidence suggests North American outflows meet global dollar demand and increase during periods of dollar appreciation against other currencies.
- Event impacts:
- The 2023 banking crisis significantly impeded stablecoin flows originating from North America.
Comparison and validation
- Offers a comprehensive comparison of the paper’s data to the Chainalysis dataset.
Subject areas and keywords
- Subjects: Banking crises, Blockchain and DLT, Financial activity tax, Financial crises, Taxes, Technology
- Keywords include: Asia and Pacific, Banking crises, Blockchain and DLT, capital flight, capital flow management measures (CFMs), capital flows, Caribbean, Chainalysis dataset, crypto assets, currency substitution, data set, dollar demand, East Africa, Financial activity tax, Middle East, North America, Stablecoin flow, stablecoin transaction, stablecoins, training data
IMF Working Paper No. 2025/141, July 11, 2025
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