Afghan Exodus: Regional Macroeconomic Implications and Policy Challenges

IMF Working Papers, September 5, 2025

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Canonical URL: Afghan Exodus: Regional Macroeconomic Implications and Policy Challenges

Authors: Rhea Gupta, Chandana Kularatne, Dirk V Muir, Pedro C Rodriguez, Li Zeng
Published: September 5, 2025
Series: IMF Working Papers
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229011921.001

Authors: Rhea Gupta, Chandana Kularatne, Dirk V Muir, Pedro C Rodriguez, Li Zeng
Publication date: September 5, 2025
Type: IMF Working Paper (Working Paper No. 2025/176)
Pages: 41
Core focus: Documents stylized facts of Afghan displacement and emigration; assesses macroeconomic impacts from a regional perspective using the IMF’s FSGM model; considers policies to address the crisis.
Geographic focus: Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan
Subject keywords: Employment, Labor, Labor markets, Migrant labor, Migration, Population and demographics; keywords include Afghan refugee, internally displaced persons, Afghanistan reform, Iran, Pakistan, policy challenge, policy index, refugees.

Afghanistan has endured decades of war and political turmoil, producing repeated waves of displacement (refugees and internally displaced persons) and emigration.
The paper documents key stylized facts of the Afghan displacement and emigration crisis from a regional perspective.
Macroeconomic impacts are quantified using the IMF’s FSGM model (Financial Sector and Growth Model).

Analytical tool: IMF’s FSGM model.
Regional perspective: The analysis explicitly considers spillovers and feedbacks between Afghanistan and host countries, notably Iran and Pakistan.
Central analytical goal: Assess macroeconomic impacts of displacement and emigration on regional economies and policy trade-offs.

Emphasizes the need for a holistic and coordinated approach to achieve a durable solution to the displacement and emigration crisis.
International support is identified as a critical catalyst for effective responses.
Well-designed reforms in both Afghanistan and host countries (Iran and Pakistan) could yield a win-win outcome.