We Must Place Our Hope in Multilateralism

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Author: GORDON BROWN, former prime minister of the United Kingdom.
Published: September 2024.
Core argument: Only by strengthening multilateral institutions and cooperation can countries prevent global fragmentation and avert deepening economic, security, and environmental crises.

Shift 1 — Unipolarity to multipolarity
- Rise of multiple centers of power rather than a unipolar order.
- Evidence of hedging and nonalignment: only 45 countries are imposing sanctions against Russia.
- BRICS enlargement: membership increased from 5 to 10, with more members expected.

Shift 2 — Neoliberalism to mercantilism / protectionist policy
- Governments increasingly use import and export bans, technology bans, investment bans, and sanctions rather than higher tariffs alone.
- Nearly 3,000 trade restrictions implemented globally last year.
- IMF estimate: global losses from increased trade fragmentation could carry a long-term cost of up to 7 percent of global GDP.

Shift 3 — Constrained globalization and power-based order
- More than 100 countries adopting national industrial policies.
- Over 2,500 protectionist measures recorded in the past year alone.
- Purchasing strategies shifting from “just in time” to “just in case”; diversification strategies described as “China plus one, two, three, four, or even five.”
- Clarification: this is not necessarily deglobalization; trade in services rising and globalization is becoming more constrained by security, environmental, and equity concerns.

IMF governance imbalance: 59.1 percent of voting shares in the IMF are held by countries representing 13.7 percent of the world’s population; India’s and China’s combined share is only 9 percent.
Developing and emerging market climate and SDG financing gap: estimated need of $3 trillion a year by 2030 (excluding China), of which $2 trillion should be raised domestically and $1 trillion will have to come from outside.
G7 membership judged too narrow to steer the world economy; the G20 should serve as the premier, more representative forum.

World Trade Organization (WTO)
- Use director-general Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala’s skills to resolve disputes by conciliation, arbitration, and negotiation.
- Move away from an overly legalistic and broken judge-based appeal system.

World Bank and multilateral development banks (MDBs)
- Reorient the World Bank as a global public goods bank focused on human capital and environmental stewardship, per Ajay Banga’s proposal.
- Mobilize innovative financial mechanisms, including guarantees to de-risk and scale up private sector investment.
- Raise further funds from shareholders through a capital increase.
- Summers-Singh G20 report proposal: multilateral development banks should provide an annual increase of $260 billion.

G20 reforms
- Re-establish the G20 as the premier forum for global economic cooperation.
- Make the G20 more representative via a constituency system.
- Assemble a professional secretariat to ensure continuity of policy from year to year.

Historical examples of successful multilateral cooperation cited: Kennedy’s nuclear test ban treaty, Reagan–Gorbachev nuclear reductions, multinational efforts against ozone depletion, the 2009 G20 summit stabilizing the global economy, and the Paris climate accord.
Two possible paths presented:
- Path 1: Global fragmentation and deepening crises.
- Path 2: Collective action yielding prosperity, progress, and hope — the author chooses hope.

This article draws on a speech by the author at the April 2024 PIIE-IMF conference on steering structural change.

We Must Place Our Hope in Multilateralism
- We Must Place Our Hope in Multilateralism (Markdown version)
- We Must Place Our Hope in Multilateralism (PDF)